"Seth Jones is one of the world’s sharpest defense theorists. This is an invaluable guide to the coming era of geopolitical competition, which will largely take place off the traditional battlefield, and a timely warning that the United States is not doing enough to prevail against determined rivals."
"Three Dangerous Men provides an unparalleled look at how Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran are competing with the United States—through their eyes. It is a cogently argued, well-researched, and elegantly written book on one of the US’s most important challenges ahead."
"Three Dangerous Men is a brilliantly conceived exposé of modern conflict through the lives of three warrior-innovators. Seth Jones dug deep into Russian, Iranian, and Chinese sources, and breaks new ground by portraying the evolution of irregular warfare, finally, in its proper cultural and historical context. An invaluable book."
06/28/2021
The U.S. is “woefully unprepared” to wage the “asymmetric warfare” favored by its main adversaries, according to this well-sourced yet flawed account. Foreign policy analyst Jones (A Covert Action) claims that America’s “obsession with conventional war,” coupled with the Trump administration’s isolationist tendencies, has left the U.S. vulnerable to cyber espionage, disinformation campaigns, “economic coercion,” and other “gray zone” strategies used by Russia, China, and Iran to compete for global influence. Taking each adversary in turn, Jones identifies the architects of these tactics, including Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission; Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov, whose plans for seizing Crimea in 2014 drew from the playbook the U.S. used to overthrow Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011; and Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who led the paramilitary Quds Force until his 2020 assassination in a U.S. drone strike. Unfortunately, the extended profiles of these officials come at the expense of a more complete assessment of the damage they’ve wrought, and Jones, who cites many former CIA and Defense Department officials, doesn’t fully reckon with the ethical and legal implications of his call for America to ramp up its irregular warfare capabilities. This one-sided account feels more alarmist than essential. (Sept.)
"This impeccably researched book explains how Russia, China, and Iran employ new technologies and irregular warfare tactics to avoid US strengths and exploit weaknesses. Three Dangerous Men is important because US leaders tend to mirror adversaries and define future war as they might prefer it to be. Seth Jones provides recommendations that will appeal to policy makers. General readers will appreciate the author’s use of anecdotes that are as entertaining as they are illuminating."
07/30/2021
The latest work by Jones (director, International Security Program, Ctr. for Strategic and International Studies; A Covert Action) argues that the principal opponents of the United States (Russia, Iran, and China, per Jones) have adopted a strategy of "irregular" or "asymmetrical" warfare, for which the U.S. is ill-prepared and vulnerable. Jones explains the three nations' policies through short biographies of major strategic thinkers: Russian general Valery Gerasimov, Iranian general Qassim Soleimani (who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020), and Chinese general Zhang Youxia. His evidence that these figures are de-emphasizing conventional warfare is weaker, but Jones's case that they advocate asymmetrical tactics (e.g., proxy forces, cyberwar, and special operations) is most convincing. Ironically, he writes, earlier American operations (the First Gulf War, Kosovo, Libya) became critical sources of change for each country's strategy. His use of open-sourced evidence and interviews makes it especially persuasive, and the strength of the book lies in clear expression and accomplished sourcing. Jones's analysis of decision-making by his subjects and the top leadership (Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, Xi Jinping) occasionally falls short. Jones offers a prescriptive agenda to meet the challenges, including greater allied cooperation, informational technology, and counterintelligence. VERDICT Overall, this is a highly recommended look at modern warfare campaigns.—Zachary Irwin, formerly at Penn State, Behrend
2021-07-14
Disturbing accounts of three little-known figures in three rival governments working to make their nations great.
“Their main tools are not fighter jets, battle tanks, or even infantry soldiers,” writes international security expert Jones, “but hackers, spies, special operations forces, and private military companies with clandestine links to state security agencies.” Delving deeply into Russian, Persian, and Mandarin documents (a tactic that U.S. intelligence services largely neglect), the author focuses on Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russian chief of the general staff; Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani (d. 2020); and Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission. All have acknowledged that a hot war with America—in their minds an aggressive power seeking world domination—would be disastrous, and all learned from the expensive failures of the American strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have also blamed U.S. subversion for the “color” revolutions that overthrew dictators across the Middle East. Gerasimov engineered the annexation of Crimea and crippled the infrastructure of Ukraine with cyberattacks, and he continues to spread turmoil in the U.S. via massive hacking and social media disinformation campaigns. America’s generous gift—invading Iraq—greatly helped Soleimani in his goal of making Iran the Middle East’s dominant power. American leaders heralded the 2020 drone attack that killed him as a great victory, but the U.S. has a long history of announcing victory in the region. Although representing a nation vastly more powerful than Russia or Iran, Zhang Youxia oversees a similarly intense campaign of propaganda, espionage, and economic warfare. An astute analyst of complex global affairs, Jones reminds us that the U.S. won the Cold War when populations in the Soviet Union and its satellites rose up against tyranny—and Americans officials encouraged them. Back then, the government invested in language skills and expertise to better understand the enemies and tempt their often restive citizens with the liberties and prosperity they lacked.
A discomfiting reminder that the brain is often mightier than the sword.
