| Preface | ix |
1. | Introduction | 1 |
1. | Policy Issues and the Main Policy Tools | 2 |
2. | Country Studies | 7 |
3. | Not Policy Miracles | 9 |
| Note | 9 |
2. | The Real Exchange Rate | 10 |
1. | The Real Exchange Rate as the Price of Foreign Exchange | 11 |
2. | Analysis of the Real Exchange Rate | 12 |
3. | Expenditure Reducing and Expenditure Switching | 16 |
4. | Floating and Fixed Exchange Rates | 19 |
5. | Effects of Changes in the Real Exchange Rate | 26 |
| Notes | 32 |
Part I. | Policy Issues and the Main Policy Tools | |
3. | Balance of Payments Issues | 37 |
1. | An Overview of Linkages | 37 |
2. | Basic Accounting Concepts | 42 |
3. | Policy Instruments | 45 |
4. | Determinants of Growth | 49 |
5. | Some Mistakes To Be Avoided | 51 |
| Notes | 52 |
4. | External Shocks and Domestic Policy Responses | 54 |
1. | Anatomy of External Shocks | 54 |
2. | Policy Response to External Shocks | 64 |
3. | Additional Problems | 74 |
4. | Conclusions | 78 |
5. | Overvaluation and Trade Balance | 80 |
1. | Effects of Overvaluation | 80 |
2. | Definitions of the Real Exchange Rate | 82 |
3. | Effects of Disturbances | 86 |
4. | Goods, Factor, and Asset Markets | 91 |
5. | Country Experiences | 96 |
6. | Exchange Rate Rules | 101 |
7. | Undervaluation | 104 |
| Notes | 107 |
6. | Devaluation and Inflation | 108 |
1. | Exchange Rate Arrangements | 108 |
2. | Exchange Rate Indicators | 114 |
3. | How Does Devaluation Work? | 117 |
4. | Assets Market Problems | 121 |
5. | Devaluation and High Inflation | 122 |
| Notes | 127 |
7. | Multiple Exchange Rates, Capital Controls, and Commercial Policy | 128 |
1. | Overview of Policy Alternatives | 129 |
2. | Multiple Exchange Rates and Trade Taxes | 132 |
3. | Quantitative Restrictions | 140 |
4. | Capital Controls | 144 |
5. | Dual Exchange Rates | 148 |
6. | Conclusions | 154 |
Appendix 1. | Jamaica in the 1970s | 155 |
Appendix 2. | Capital Flight | 157 |
Appendix 3. | Black Markets for Foreign Exchange | 158 |
| Selected Bibliography | 160 |
| Notes | 163 |
8. | Exchange Reserves as Shock Absorbers | 165 |
1. | Reserve Composition | 167 |
2. | Purpose of Holding Reserves | 172 |
3. | The Norm for the Reserve Stock | 175 |
4. | Speed of Adjustment | 178 |
5. | Conclusions | 182 |
| Glossary | 184 |
| Selected Bibliography | 185 |
| Notes | 185 |
9. | External Borrowing and Debt Management | 187 |
1. | History of Capital Movements | 188 |
2. | The First Oil Price Shock | 196 |
3. | The Second Oil Price Shock | 202 |
4. | Coping with the Debt Crisis | 205 |
5. | Prospects for New Capital Flows | 210 |
6. | Policy Lessons | 217 |
Appendix | Debt Dynamics | 220 |
| Selected Bibliography | 221 |
| Notes | 222 |
10. | Opening Up: Liberalization with Stabilization | 223 |
1. | Sequence of Liberalization Measures | 224 |
2. | Liberalization of Trade | 230 |
3. | Liberalization of Financial Markets | 237 |
4. | Stabilization from High Inflation | 239 |
| Selected Bibliography | 246 |
| Notes | 247 |
11. | Policymaking and Economic Policy in Small Developing Countries | 249 |
1. | Some Simple Demographic Facts | 250 |
2. | Demography's Hidden Curse | 251 |
3. | Professionalism | 254 |
4. | The Lessons of Experience | 256 |
| Notes | 263 |
Part II. | Country Studies | |
12. | Argentina | 267 |
1. | Foreign Terms of Trade and Commercial Policies | 271 |
2. | Short-Term Cycles and the External Sector | 275 |
3. | The Real Exchange Rate for Exports | 277 |
4. | Speculation and Hyperinflation | 282 |
| Notes | 283 |
13. | Brazil | 285 |
1. | From Coffee Valorization to External Debt | 285 |
2. | Indexation Issues | 288 |
3. | Balance of Payments Policies | 295 |
4. | Conclusions | 304 |
| Selected Bibliography | 306 |
14. | Indonesia | 307 |
1. | Historical Overview | 307 |
2. | A Tale of Three Devaluations | 317 |
3. | Trade Policy | 324 |
4. | Conclusions | 328 |
Appendix | The Real Exchange Rate and the Index of International Competitiveness | 329 |
| Notes | 333 |
15. | Korea | 336 |
1. | Exports as an Engine of Growth | 337 |
2. | Disadvantages of the Strategy | 341 |
3. | Conclusions | 345 |
| Selected Bibliography | 346 |
| Notes | 347 |
16. | Mexico | 348 |
1. | From 1935 to 1982 | 348 |
2. | Industrialization and Trade Policy | 355 |
3. | Exchange Rates from the Mid-1920s to 1982 | 358 |
4. | Budget Deficits and Inflation | 362 |
5. | Recent Policies | 364 |
| Selected Bibliography | 368 |
| Notes | 369 |
| Appendixes | |
A. | Sources of Current Data | 373 |
B. | National Accounting Identities | 375 |
1. | Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Product | 375 |
2. | The Balance of Payments Equation | 380 |
3. | Examples of the Basic Balance of Payments Equation | 384 |
| Notes | 390 |
C. | Real-Exchange-Rate Indexes | 392 |
D. | Effective Protection | 398 |
| Index | 405 |