Table of Contents
Contributors vii
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Part I: Forcings of Climate Extremes
1 The Changing El Nino–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate ExtremesJin-Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Song Yang, Houk Paek, and Mengyan Chen 3
2 Weather Extremes Linked to Interaction of the Arctic and MidlatitudesTimo Vihma 39
3 Impact of Aerosols on Regional Changes in Climate ExtremesJana Sillmann and Jinho Yoon 51
4 Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and Prolonged Weather Extremes in Boreal SummerDim Coumou, Kai Kornhuber, Jascha Lehmann, and Vladimir Petoukhov 61
5 Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes: A ReviewMin-Hui Lo, Tzu-Hsien Kuo, Hao-Wei Wey, Chia-Wei Lan, and Jen-Ping Chen 75
Part II: Processes of Climate Extremes
6 Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Climate ExtremesAndrew D. King, Markus G. Donat, Ed Hawkins, and David J. Karoly 95
7 Recent Increases in Extreme Temperature Occurrence over LandScott J. Weaver, Arun Kumar, and Mingyue Chen 105
8 Why Future Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Will Likely Be Small: The Location of the Tropical Rain Belt and the Hemispheric Contrast of Energy Input to the AtmosphereAaron Donohoe and Aiko Voigt 115
9 Weather-Climate Interactions and MJO InfluencesPaul E. Roundy, Naoko Sakaeda, Kyle MacRitchie, and Lawrence Gloeckler 139
10 Recent Climate Extremes Associated with the West Pacific Warming ModeChris Funk and Andrew Hoell 165
11 Connections Between Heat Waves and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere SummerHaiyan Teng and Grant Branstator 177
Part III: Regional Climate Extremes
12 North American Drought and Links to Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby WavesHailan Wang, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Randal D. Koster 197
13 The California Drought: Trends and ImpactsShih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Jinho Yoon, Robert R. Gillies, and Huang-Hsiung Hsu 223
14 Observed Trends in US Tornado FrequencyAdam J. Clark 237
15 Mechanisms Explaining Recent Changes in Australian Climate ExtremesSophie C. Lewis, David J. Karoly, Andrew D. King, Sarah E. Perkins, and Markus G. Donat 249
16 Unraveling East Africa’s Climate ParadoxBradfield Lyon and Nicolas Vigaud 265
17 A Physical Model for Extreme Drought over Southwest AsiaAndrew Hoell, Chris Funk, Mathew Barlow, and Forest Cannon 283
Part IV: Prediction of Climate Extremes
18 Extratropical Precursors of the El Nino–Southern OscillationKathy V. Pegion and Christopher Selman 301
19 North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction: Underlying Science and an Evaluation of Statistical ModelsPhilip J. Klotzbach, Mark A. Saunders, Gerald D. Bell, and Eric S. Blake 315
20 Predicting Subseasonal Precipitation Variations Based on the Madden-Julian OscillationCharles Jones 329
21 Prediction of Short-Term Climate Extremes with a Multimodel EnsembleEmily J. Becker 347
22 Toward Predicting US Tornadoes in the Late 21st CenturyAdam J. Clark 361
Index 371