2021 Foreword INDIES Gold Winner for War & History
Why have the major post-9/11 US military interventions turned into quagmires? Despite huge power imbalances in the United States' favor, significant capacity-building efforts, and repeated tactical victories by what many observers call the world's best military, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq turned intractable. The US government's fixation on zero-sum, decisive victory in these conflicts is a key reason why military operations to overthrow two developing-world regimes failed to successfully achieve favorable and durable outcomes.
In Zero-Sum Victory, retired US Army colonel Christopher D. Kolenda identifies three interrelated problems that have emerged from the government's insistence on zero-sum victory. First, the US government has no organized way to measure successful outcomes other than a decisive military victory, and thus, selects strategies that overestimate the possibility of such an outcome. Second, the United States is slow to recognize and modify or abandon losing strategies; in both cases, US officials believe their strategies are working, even as the situation deteriorates. Third, once the United States decides to withdraw, bargaining asymmetries and disconnects in strategy undermine the prospects for a successful transition or negotiated outcome.
Relying on historic examples and personal experience, Kolenda draws thought-provoking and actionable conclusions about the utility of American military power in the contemporary world—insights that serve as a starting point for future scholarship as well as for important national security reforms.
Christopher D. Kolenda is a West Point graduate, internationally renowned combat leader, and retired Army colonel. He holds a PhD in War Studies from King's College, London, and is the editor of Leadership: The Warrior's Art. He is the first American to have fought the Taliban as a commander in combat and to engage them in peace talks.
Table of Contents
List of Illustrations Glossary of Key Actors 1. Introduction 2. The Past as Prologue: The Vietnam War 3. Part I: Toward a War Termination Framework 4. Further Defining War Termination 5. The Decisive Victory Paradigm Undermines Strategy for Irregular War 6. Part II: The Pursuit of Decisive Victory in Afghanistan 7. Light Footprints to a Long War 8. Plans Hit Reality: A Recent History of Bad Neighbors and Worse Governance 9. The Fall of the Taliban and the Bonn Conference 10. America's Bureaucratic Way of War 11. Conclusion to Part II 12. Part III: Persisting in a Failing Approach 13. Accelerating Success, 2003-2007 14. Failing to Keep Pace with the Insurgency, 2007-2009 15. The Good War Going Badly 16. Surging into the Good War 17. More Shovels in the Quicksand 18. Misapplying the Iraq Formula 19. Assessments and Risks 20. Conclusion to Part III 21. Part IV: Ending the War in Afghanistan 22. Reconciliation versus Transition 23. Reconciling Reconciliation 24. Competing Visions: Karzai, Taliban, Pakistan 25. Exploratory Talks: Building and Damaging Confidence 26. Coming Off the Rails 27. Fallout: BSA, Bergdahl, and the 2014 Elections 28. Conclusion to Part IV 29. Part V: Pursuit of Decisive Victory in Iraq 30. Operation Iraqi Freedom: Plans without a Strategy 31. A Complicated Approach to a Complex Situation 32. From Decisive Victory to Transition 33. Conclusion to Part V 34. Part VI: Staying the Course in Iraq 35. Achieving Milestones while Losing the War 36. Trapped by Partners in a Losing Strategy 37. Mirror Imaging Civil-Military Relations 38. To Surge or Not to Surge: A Possible Win Beats a Certain Loss 39. A New Plan on Shaky Foundations 40. Conclusion to Part VI 41. Part VII: Ending the War in Iraq 42. The Surge Misunderstood 43. The Absence of a Political Strategy Erodes US Leverage 44. New Administration, Similar Challenges 45. Conclusion to Part VII 46. Part VIII: Implications 47. Iraq and Afghanistan Compared 48. Implications for US Foreign Policy 49. Implications for Scholarship 51. Abbreviations 53. Key Events in the Afhanistan Conflict 54. Key Events in the Iraq Conflict 50. Notes 51. Acknowledgements 52. Index