What's Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy

by David Hale, Lyric Hughes Hale

Overview

The world spins in economic turmoil, and who can tell what will happen next? Cold numbers and simple statistical projections don't take into account social, financial, or political factors that can dramatically alter the economic course of a nation or a region. In this unique book, more than twenty leading economists and experts render thorough, rigorously researched prognoses for the world's major economies over the next five years. Factoring in such varied issues as the price of oil, the strength of the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, tax policies, and new developments in investment decision making, the contributors ground their predictions in the realities of current events, political conditions, and the health of financial institutions in each national economy.
The most comprehensive volume on the global economy available today, this book presents up-to-date research on Russia, Australia, Europe, sub-Saharan and South Africa, the major Asian economies, North America, and the largest economies of Latin America. With unsurpassed expertise, the authors explain what's going on in individual countries, how important current global issues will impact them, and what economic scenarios they most likely will face in upcoming years.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780300175080
Publisher:	Yale University Press
Publication date:	05/24/2011
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
File size:	2 MB

About the Author

David Hale is the founder of David Hale Global Economics and a renowned global economist. Lyric Hughes Hale is a writer and frequent commentator on the Chinese economy. They live near Chicago, Illinois.

Table of Contents

Preface Lyric Hughes Hale xi

Introduction David Hale xv

I Western Hemisphere Economies

1 The US Recovery David Hale 3

2 The Canadian Economy: Prospects and Challenges Joshua Mendelsohn 12

3 Mexico's Interminable Transition-2011 and Beyond Timothy Heyman 29

4 Is Latin America Changing? Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 48

II Europe

5 The World Bets on Europe, but the United States Will Probably Win Anatole Kaletsky 57

III Asia

6 Asia's Paradigm Shift Louis-Vincent Gave 77

7 Japan: Return to Normal Robert Madsen 92

8 Japan: The Interregnum Goes On Richard B. Katz 102

IV Southern Hemisphere Economies

9 Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010-2011 Keith Jefferis 117

10 South Africa After 2010 Iraj Abedian 128

11 It Didn't Have to Be That Bad-The Counterexample of Australia Saul Eslake 139

V Reserve Currencies

12 The Future of the US Dollar as a Reserve Currency John Greenwood 153

13 Will the Gold Rally Continue? David Hale 166

VI The Geopolitics of Energy

14 In the Shadow of Peak Oil, Peak Carbon, Iraqi Nationalism, and Paper Barrels: The Oil Markets of the 2010s Albert Bressand 179

15 In the Aftermath of Iran's Latest Revolution Narimon Safavi 203

16 Climate Change: Feasible Policy and Future Carbon Markets Brian Fisher Anna Matysek 219

VII Crisis and Reform

17 Were Banks Bust in 2009? And Did They Really Need Much More Capital? Tim Congdon 233

18 The Tobin Tax: Creating a Global Fiscal System to Fund Global Public Goods Andrew Sheng 250

19 Fiscal Imbalances, Economic Growth, and Tax Policy: Plucking More Feathers from the Golden Goose Jack Mintz 256

20 Dodd-Frank Financial Reforms Have a Broad Scope, and Will Likely Have a Modest Impact Michael T. Lewis 264

21 The Future of Corporate Compliance Carole Basri 271

VIII Neuroeconomics

22 The Human Side of Investment Decision-Making Thierry Malleret 285

23 The Diminishing Returns of the Information Age Mark Roeder 292

Glossary 303

Contributors 313

Index 323

Editorial Reviews

The global economy is a complex and dynamic interplay of factors. This collection of 23 pieces from a diverse group of authorities, including economists, policymakers, and former government officials, shines light on economies worldwide. The articles discuss country prospects and the ability of countries, including superpowers, to recover from crises. Insight is provided on how international decision making impacts countries' domestic economies in the short and long term. Variables discussed range from monetary and banking policies to climate change and neuroeconomics. Surprisingly, the last chapter is an article about the Internet and diminishing returns. The book is complemented by research notes, a glossary, and biographies of the article contributors. VERDICT Because of the in-depth macroeconomic and microeconomic content, this is best suited for readers with an extensive background in economic theory, and, therefore, recommended only for academic collections.—Caroline Geck, MLS, Newark, NJ

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