Upheaval!: Why Catastrophic Earthquakes Will Soon Strike the United States
332
Upheaval!: Why Catastrophic Earthquakes Will Soon Strike the United States
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Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9781490779041 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | Trafford Publishing |
| Publication date: | 12/12/2016 |
| Sold by: | Barnes & Noble |
| Format: | eBook |
| Pages: | 332 |
| File size: | 39 MB |
| Note: | This product may take a few minutes to download. |
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Upheaval!
Why Catastrophic Earthquakes Will Soon Strike the United States
By John L. Casey, Dong Choi, Fumio Tsunoda, Ole Humlum
Trafford Publishing
Copyright © 2016 John L. CaseyAll rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-1-4907-7903-4
CHAPTER 1
Where Are We Today?
He who is outside the door has already a good part of his journey behind him.
— Dutch proverb
We begin the heart of this book with a look at where we are today in terms of broad USA earthquake risk assessments. We will look at the U.S. government's perceptions and then examine what has been said by the authors and other researchers.
Since 2010, we have published research papers on climate and seismology, which in turn we have used to write letters to our government. These letters attempted to convince our leaders in the USA of the need to prepare the country for catastrophic earthquakes expected to strike during the next solar hibernation, the Eddy minimum.
Around 2014, and after many communications with the government, we began to see a positive change in the government's attitude toward the earthquake risk facing the country. It reflected a more serious assessment of the earthquake risk across the USA. Previous studies by the USGS had provided a threat assessment that was tepid at best and likely confusing to the public in terms of whether they should be more or less concerned about earthquakes.
Fortunately, recent studies by the USGS are now more closely aligned with what we have been saying for years. The best yet official vision of the earthquake risk across the continuous USA from their perspective has been published in a 2015 paper, which provided an important update to the earthquake threat. Despite the thoroughness of the recent studies and in some instances realistic risk assessments, they still fall well short of making a case for what the IEVPC believes should be our national action plan to prepare for the predicted era of devastating earthquakes we are facing. This omnibus study was published in June 2015 by USGS researchers K. S. Jaiswal et al.
This USGS study significantly increased the numbers of U.S. citizens who will be impacted by future quakes on the growing U.S. population as seen in the chart below:
[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
Here is the abstract or summary from the study and its important new assessment of the 143 million Americans now at risk from earthquakes. This is double the number at risk from the USGS 2006 assessment.
A large portion of the population of the United States lives in areas vulnerable to earthquake hazards. This investigation aims to quantify population and infrastructure exposure in places within the conterminous United States that are subjected to varying levels of earthquake ground motions by systematically analyzing the last four cycles of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (published in 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014). Using the 2013 LandScan data, we estimate the number of people who are exposed to potentially damaging ground motions (peak ground accelerations at or above 0.1 g). At least 28 million (~9% of the total population) may experience 0.1 g level of shaking at relatively frequent intervals [annual rate of 1 in 72 years or 50% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years], 57 million (~18% of the total population) may experience this level of shaking at moderately frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 475 years or 10% PE in 50 years), and 143 million (~46% of the total population) may experience such shaking at relatively infrequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 2,475 years or 2% PE in 50 years). We also show that there are a significant number of critical infrastructure facilities located in high-earthquake-hazard areas (Modified Mercalli intensity > VII with moderately frequent recurrence interval).
We are pleased with these more realistic earthquake risk assessments. For example, they have increased the likelihood of major quakes in Northern California. This is shown in a March 2015 paper which addressed the threat of a catastrophic earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area. They now believe there exists a:
"72% probability of one or more M > 6.7 earthquakes from 2014 to 2043 in the San Francisco Bay Region." [italics added]
This is almost identical to the estimate we have though with a smaller quake magnitude.
From an August 12, 2015 article in Physics.org, we have the following summary statement about the USGS study by K.S. Jaiswal, et al.:
More than 143 million Americans living in the 48 contiguous states are exposed to potentially damaging ground shaking from earthquakes. When the people living in the earthquake-prone areas of Alaska, Hawaii and U.S. territories are added, this number rises to nearly half of all Americans.
"The new exposure estimate is nearly double the previous 2006 estimate of 75 million Americans in 39 states, and is attributed to both population growth and advances in science," said William Leith, who is the USGS senior science advisor for earthquake and geologic hazards and a co-author of this study. "Populations have grown significantly in areas prone to earthquakes, and USGS scientists have improved data and methodologies that allow for more accurate estimates of earthquake hazards and ground shaking."
On the other hand, the use of phrases like the earthquake risk is "2% chance of occurring in 50 years" adds nothing to the urgency of the real situation we see from the IEVPC perspective. In fact, it may cause many without a statistics or geology background to conclude the 2% is not much to be concerned about.
For our part, we have been spreading the word about an expected dangerous period of geophysical events for almost seven years. The detailed chronological list of warnings or published science we have made through press releases, books, emails etc., to the media and elected officials and the public are spelled out in a chronology in appendix 2. These communications and past risk assessments made prior to those in this book are extracted here in more simplified reading form:
1. March 2, 2010. The Space and Science Research Center (SSRC) issues its second Research Report 1-2010 (Preliminary) and associated press release. The report is published on the internet for widest possible distribution. The report is titled "Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events." This paper identifies an 80% probability of catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions during the next solar minimum/hibernation.
2. A paper was published in the as NCGT Newsletter entitled "Earthquakes and Solar Activity Cycles" by D. R. Choi and L. Maslov in 2010. In this seminal paper, the connection between solar activity and geophysical events is identified.
3. March 14, 2011. The SSRC issues Press Release 4-2011, warning that there will be more and large earthquakes like that which struck Japan on March 11, 2011.
4. A paper is issued by Dr. Choi and Dr. Tsunoda, validating the previous Choi-Maslov paper from 2010 that linked solar activity with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
5. In the fall of 2011, Cold Sun, endorsed by other scientists, was published by Trafford Publishing. The book lays out the case for the relationship between solar cycles and record earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
6. September 13, 2013. The SSRC publishes the commentary/research paper titled "Earthquake/Volcanic Activities and Solar Cycles" by Dr. Choi in its Global Climate Status Report (GCSR) edition 3-2013. In this paper, Dr. Choi repeats much of the 2010 Choi-Maslov paper, which lays out in substantial detail a strong correlation between the strongest, most damaging earthquakes and volcanoes, and solar activity.
7. March 2014. A summary research paper is authored by Dr. Choi, Dr. Maslov, Dr. Tsunoda, and Casey, which was published in the SSRC GCSR edition 1-2014. This summary cites previous research of the authors with the following conclusion:
The increasing seismic activity since 1990 is expected to continue for the coming two to three decades as we have entered a "solar hibernation" or possibly a mini-ice age (Casey, 2012); this will likely bring more strong, possibly catastrophic earthquakes.
8. April 28, 2014 the president is notified for the final time to prepare the nation for the coming solar hibernation via a letter and widely publicized Press Release 2-2014. In the letter, among other items, was the following:
Research related to these solar hibernations, also shows they occur concurrently with the most destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, the latter of which can add dramatically to an already colder climate."
9. June 2014. Humanix Books publishes an updated, restructured version of Cold Sun as Dark Winter, which also covered the correlation between record earthquakes and volcanic eruptions with solar hibernations.
10. August 25, 2014. The IEVPC posts and distributes its press release titled "California Enters Greatest Earthquake Risk Period." The release is sent to the Office of the Governor of California and major newspapers in the state. The detailed press release explains the solar activity connection with major earthquakes and the 206-year cycle of the Sun that is also causing a shift into a new cold climate.
11. 2014-2015. Hundreds of radio and NewsMaxTV interviews and public presentations were conducted by Casey, alerting millions of Americans of the need to prepare for the coming cold climate with its associated major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
12. Late July, early August 2015. The book Dark Winter becomes the number one bestselling book at Amazon.com in the categories of climate change, public policy, astronomy and astrophysics, Earth sciences, and weather. Dark Winter warns of a coming cold epoch and associated catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
13. June 5, 2015. The SSRC sends a letter to FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate with a warning that the United States will enter its highest risk period for catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions during the period of 2017 to 2038.
14. June 2015. Numerous mainstream media outlets and prominent state newspapers in high-risk quake zones were notified via email of the June 5, 2015 FEMA letter and the threat of catastrophic earthquakes.
15. June 2015. The SSRC notified each applicable governors' office of the increased threat of record quakes and volcanic eruptions vis-à-vis the letter to FEMA Administrator Fugate. All West Coast states and central Mississippi states and South Carolina were notified.
16. September 2015. NewsMax Media Inc., parent company of Humanix Books, begins to air a TV documentary about the book Dark Winter that discusses the coming cold climate and associated destructive earthquakes and volcanoes. Millions view it on Dish Network, Direct TV, Verizon FiOS, and online at NewsmaxTV.com.
17. May 13, 2016. A follow-up letter and additional warning was sent to the FEMA administrator from Veritence Corporation, indicating that the June 5, 2015 letter from the SSRC should be taken more seriously in view of recent geophysical activity and the warning issued by Dr. Thomas Jordan at the Southern California Earthquake Center on May 4, 2016.
18. May-July, 2016. A second mailing is sent out to the governors of the U.S. States most likely to suffer the brunt of coming geophysical disasters.
19. June 6, 2016. The IEVPC posts and distributes its first press release of the year, "Federal and State Leaders Warned to Prepare for Catastrophic Earthquakes and Volcanoes." This release, as indicated in the text, represents the final warning to governments, after years of prior warnings, to get their states and federal agencies into immediate preparation mode for catastrophic quakes that could strike anytime but definitely within the period 2017 to 2038.
As we will see in the remaining chapters of this book, although there have been many warnings, our country remains substantially unaware and therefore unprepared for the dangerous years ahead.
CHAPTER 2The Sun-Earth Connection
Every new truth begins in a shocking heresy.
— Margaret Deland
It did not take long after the discovery of the 206-year solar cycle and the formulation of the relational cycle theory of climate change, or the RC theory, before it was also clear that the Sun had much more impact on the Earth than just the diurnal cycle, climate, or the change in the seasons.
In this chapter we examine both the means by which we measure the Sun's activity and look at several research papers that have exposed the relationship between the Sun and geophysical process on Earth in the form of earthquakes and volcanic activity. The detailed papers supporting this explanation are found in their original form in appendix 2.
Prior to jumping into the science behind this Sun-Earth or solar-terrestrial connection, it is important to understand how scientists measure the Sun's behavior and climate change over long periods of time. As has been mentioned earlier in this book, a primary element to the assertions made herein is that climate changes, especially to cold climates, are a key component to determining when our worst earthquakes and volcanoes happen. Therefore, we need methods for analyzing when past climate changes took place to see if a correlation exists. These climate changes, going back many hundreds of years provide for us a template for understanding the Sun's past behavior, giving us the ability for estimating future activity for both the Sun and geophysical events. Measurement of the global temperature changes then becomes the key to the process. How do we do that, and how far back in time can we go in measuring the Earth's temperature changes?
We start at the year 1979. That is when the U.S. government first began to monitor the Earth's temperatures via satellites. We have detailed global temperature records from that time to present. But that is such a small period of time. Temperatures prior to that were measured directly from thermometers but only back to 1850 here in the United States. European temperatures measurement went back beyond that to the 1600s. This is also the time when Galileo Galilei began to use the telescope to observe sunspots on the Sun. Therefore, since 1610, roughly, we have had a second means of measuring the Sun's activity level — sunspots.
Going back further in time before mankind began to measure temperature or the Sun's energy level, we are required to find proxies or analogous indicators to temperatures. The science surrounding how this is done is extremely interesting and is worthy of another book, but for this one, we will be brief.
The most common means of determining the Suns' activity levels over the millennia has been in the use of isotopes of atoms which are created during various cold or warm phases of the Earth's climate. The most used among these isotopes, carbon-14 (C14), oxygen-18 (O18), and beryllium-10 (Be10). They are extracted from various sources like deep sea floor (benthic) core samples. They are also taken from ice cores in the Antarctic, most notably from the Russian Vostok station, or from ice cores taken from Greenland.
In this text, and in addition to the use of sunspot measurements, we have relied on the C14 records. Vital to this isotope's use has been the accumulation of a highly reliable data set made of a variety of C14 sources globally. The importance of this data set was discussed in Dark Winter. One of the finest pieces of basic research in C14 has been our choice, the INTCAL 2004 C14 data set compiled by Dr. Paula Reimar, et al. With the proxy information in hand, many scientists worldwide have been able to correlate a host of natural and geophysical events to past global temperatures and the Sun's behavior.
That C14 data was used to compose the following basic chart of solar activity going back to the year AD 445. The entire INTCAL 2004 data goes back 24,000 years. In order to not make this book too cumbersome and to focus on recent trends of geophysical activity, we have limited our perspective to the last 1,500 years approximately. It is from this chart and the data behind it that the cycles outlined in the RC theory were first discovered.
Here is the C14 chart, unadorned, from AD 445 to 1950.
Where the C14 falls short in recent years after 1950, we have detailed sunspot measurements and actual temperature measurements to complete the solar activity history from which we can then compare earthquake activity to decide whether there is in fact a meaningful correlation between them. So our next step was finding a good set of sunspot data to complete our climate history picture. Again we do that using historical sunspot records back to the early 1600s. Below is the sunspot chart produced by Dr. Ole Humlum, a coauthor of this book and a professor of physical geography at the University of Oslo, Norway. Dr. Humlum, also is a glaciologist and geomorphologist who was also the coeditor for the previous Global Climate Status Report (GCSR) from the SSRC. In the GCSR, 24 different parameters of solar system and planetary activity were routinely monitored to determine which way the Sun was going on the matter of climate change, i.e., global warming or global cooling. The SSRC established itself as one of the most accurate climate prediction companies in the USA. By the way, CO2 was never used as one of the parameters followed in the Global Climate Status Report since the SSRC determined CO2 had no major role in climate variation!
(Continues...)
Excerpted from Upheaval! by John L. Casey, Dong Choi, Fumio Tsunoda, Ole Humlum. Copyright © 2016 John L. Casey. Excerpted by permission of Trafford Publishing.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
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Table of Contents
Contents
Foreword, 7,Preface, 11,
Introduction, 13,
Chapter 1 Where Are We Today?, 22,
Chapter 2 The Sun-Earth Connection, 29,
Chapter 3 The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), 50,
Chapter 4 The West Coast: Widespread Damage, 69,
Chapter 5 Alaska: Big State, Big Earthquakes, 96,
Chapter 6 South Carolina, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii, 109,
Chapter 7 The Greatest Threat: Multiple Catastrophes, 135,
Chapter 8 Preparing for the Great Upheaval, 143,
Appendix 1 The Relational Cycle Theory of Climate Change, 186,
Appendix 2 Research Reports, Papers, Etc, 188,
Item 1 Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events, 190,
Item 2 Earthquakes and Solar Activity Cycles, 199,
Item 3 Earthquake/Volcanic Activities and Solar Cycles, 219,
Item 4 Earthquakes and Solar Cycles: Increased Earth Core Activity Since 1990, 230,
Item 5 The New Madrid Seismic Zone, Central USA: The Great 1811-1812 Earthquakes, Their Relationship to Solar Cycles and Tectonic Settings, 234,
Item 6 USGS History of the 1811-1812 NMSZ Earthquakes, 247,
Item 7 List of Researchers Who Predict a New Cold Climate or Solar Hibernation, 253,
Item 8 Chronology of Notifications to Government, Media, and the Public of New Cold Climate and Associated Catastrophic Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, 261,
Item 9 Press release: International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center, 268,
Item 10 Seismo-Volcanic Energy Propagation Trends in the Aleutian Islands and North America, 273,
Item 11 Seismo-Volcanic Energy Propagation Trends in Central America and Their,
Relationship to Solar Cycles, 293,
Appendix 3 Most Destructive Earthquakes, 311,
Appendix 4 Glossary, 320,
Appendix 5 References by Chapter, 326,