Uncertainty and the Environment: Implications for Decision Making and Environmental Policy

by Richard Young

Overview

This thought provoking book is concerned with the need to deal adequately with uncertainty in environmental decision making. The author advances a critique of the use of traditional models and then develops an alternative model of decision making under uncertainty, based on the work of George Shackle.

Richard Young forwards a critique of the conventional expected utility approach and, using an alternative conceptualisation of environmental uncertainty, contends that there are a number of different modes of uncertainty and that many environmental decisions are characterised by what is termed 'hard uncertainty'. The presence of hard uncertainty radically alters the way in which environmental uncertainty can be dealt with at both an epistemological and a practical level and poses a number of problems for traditional decision making frameworks based on probability. The author goes on to apply the model to a case study of the Belize Southern Highway - the first major application of Shackle's theory in the context of environmental economics.

Detailing and explaining practical and theoretical approaches, this book will interest and inform academics in the fields of environmental economics and environmental science, geography, economics and social science, as well as decision makers in governmental and non-governmental agencies.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781840646269
Publisher:	Edward Elgar Publishing
Publication date:	01/28/2002
Series:	New Horizons in Environmental Economics series
Pages:	264
Product dimensions:	6.30(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.00(d)

About the Author

Richard Young, Consultant, Arthur Andersen, London, UK

Table of Contents

Contents: Preface 1. Introduction: Dealing with Uncertainty in Environmental Decision Making 2. The Decision Making Context 3. Environmental Uncertainty 4. Uncertainty and Decision Making 5. The Shackle Model 6. Case Study: The Belize Southern Highway 7. Methodology 8. Results of the Application of the Shackle Model 9. Discussion: A Framework for the Evaluation of Hard Uncertainty in Environmental Decision Making 10. Conclusions Appendices 1. Questionnaire 2. Gain and Loss Scenarios 3. Potential Surprise and Ascendancy/Weighting Functions 4. Summary of Results from Regression of Weighting/Ascendancy Function Bibliography Index

Editorial Reviews

'Until recently, George Shackle's work has not been appreciated adequately by mainstream economists. Young's book is the first attempt to use the Shackle model to handle the hard uncertainty issue in environmental decisionmaking. Such an approach could be fruitfully applied to other case studies involving environmental decisions as well as other nonenvironmental decisions conditioned by hard uncertainty. This book has succeeded admirably in demonstrating how to apply an abstract theory in tackling problems in a real-world situation. This volume represents a major contribution to environmental economics. Besides presenting a thoughtful critique of the conventional expected-utility approach, Young's book has made a convincing case that the presence of hard uncertainty radically alters the way in which environmental uncertainty can be dealt with at both an epistemological and a practical level. The book is very well written and logically organized. It will be of great interest to both academic as well as policy audiences.'

Daniel Sui

'This is an interesting and readable book. . .'

Mick Common

'The disturbance of an ecosystem is a unique, one-off event which involves, in the author's terms, "hard uncertainty". This book makes a major contribution to environmental economics by tackling this issue head-on. Young articulates the Shackle theory and evaluates it with a case study of the Belize Southern Highway. In doing so he makes a major contribution to Shacklean economics by conducting "laboratory experiments" with some of the personnel associated with the project and provides fascinating original material on the impact on the ecosystem. He demonstrates how Shackle's theory can be used in decisions that involve environmental concerns.'

J.L. Ford