True Warnings and False Alarms: Evaluating Fears about the Health Risks of Technology, 1948-1971 / Edition 1

by Allan Mazur

Overview

Given time, scientists reach consensus about the truth or falsity of a wide range of alleged hazards. Today, there is broad agreement that CFCs destroy stratospheric ozone. On the other hand, research does not support claims that electromagnetic fields from transmission lines cause a noticeable increase of leukemia. But new allegations continuously arise. Are manufactured chemicals in the environment distorting normal hormonal processes in our bodies? Are genetically modified foods a cause for concern? Addressing one of the most vexing problems in risk policy, Allan Mazur asks how we can tell, at an early stage, how seriously we should take a new warning. To identify hallmarks that could help predict the truth or falsity of an alleged hazard, Mazur analyzes 31 health warnings raised during the 1950s and 1960s about diverse technologies, including fluoridation, DDT, cyclamate, nuclear weapons testing, and birth control pills. Among his considerations are the initial source of an alarm, the biases held by its primary 'sponsors,' and the type of media coverage it receives. With 30 to 50 years of hindsight, he identifies characteristics - apparent from the outset of a controversy - that most effectively distinguish true warnings from false alarms. Early recognition and a timely response to a genuine hazard are important to protect our environment, health, and economic well-being. But if we act quickly and a warning turns out to be false, money is wasted, people are needlessly frightened, regulators lose credibility, and our ability to appropriately handle the next set of risks is compromised. Mazur's findings do not provide certainty about which of today's warnings will prove true and which will prove false. But they do help us to make informed judgments about where it is best and most reasonable to direct our worries and resources.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781891853562
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis
Publication date:	04/21/2004
Series:	RFF Press Ser.
Edition description:	1
Pages:	200
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x (d)

About the Author

Allan Mazur is a professor of public affairs in the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. An engineer and a sociologist, he has published nearly 200 papers and 5 books, including A Hazardous Inquiry, a study of the Love Canal controversy. Mazur is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and was an RFF Gilbert White Fellow in 2000 - 2001.

Table of Contents

Preface 1. True Warnings and False Alarms 2. Technology as Friend and Sometime Foe: 1900-1947 3. Lawless‘s Era: 1948-1971 4. Why Experts in Technical Controversies Disagree 5. Evaluating the Lawless Warnings: True or False? 6. Coding the Cases 7. Hallmarks of True and False Alarms 8. Hindsight and Foresight Appendixes I. Summary of Cases II. Case Studies References Index

Editorial Reviews

Reviewer: John T. Pierce, MBBS (MD) PhD(Navy Environmental Health Center)
Description: The author asks how we can tell, at an early stage, how seriously to take new warnings regarding health risks associated with technology. The book is set in a slightly earlier era (1948-1971), so that eventual outcomes can be judged in terms of their accuracy.
Purpose: The author takes advantage of a curious set of 31 warnings originally assembled by Edward Lawless, a chemist. These warnings were originally published in 1977 in order to raise awareness of warnings accuracy. The author uses this database in order to form contemporary conclusions. This is a fascinating account of the antecedents and outcomes attending these warnings.
Audience: Certainly environmental policy members will form the primary readership. Frankly, I found this book interesting and believe it would appeal to a much broader audience of concerned individuals. Anyone alive during many of these controversies will enjoy the detailed explanation and analysis of events as recorded by both Mazur and Lawless. Readers may split into those interested in the methodology of assigning a true alarm versus those who have a specific interest in seeing how the cyclamate or nerve gas disposal warnings were eventually resolved.
Features: The book is organized into roughly eight chapters, beginning with a discussion of its true warning and false alarm then, moving through Edward Lawless's approach to determining risk warning accuracy and then concluding with Mazur's own take on the hallmarks of true and false alarms. Its cases are uniformly organized, each time discussing the nature of warning, first warning, type of sources, preexisting biases, risk assessment, and a number of media indicators.
Assessment: There isn't a lot out there similar to this small book. I liked it. At the end of the figurative day, the book searches for means of being fair and accurate in terms of warnings. As an author, Mazur is probing but also very careful not to overstretch his purpose, qualities not often found with this type of book.

Doody's Review Service

'A thought-provoking book with a heterogenic collection of cases. The author demonstrates that in some cases the risks were hyped and later proved innocuous. No comparable study exists of warnings that were unheeded, unhyped, and later proved true.' Choice 'An exemplar of applied social science. Until we have evidence otherwise, Mazur‘s hallmarks of true and false alarms should be our guides when deciding whether or not to believe the alarms of our time.' Environmental Science and Policy

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