Three Tweets to Midnight: Effects of the Global Information Ecosystem on the Risk of Nuclear Conflict

by Herbert S. Lin (Editor), Benjamin Loehrke (Editor), Harold A. Trinkunas (Editor)

Overview

Disinformation and misinformation have always been part of conflict. But as the essays in this volume outline, the rise of social media and the new global information ecosystem have created conditions for the spread of propaganda like never before—with potentially disastrous results.

In our "post-truth" era of bots, trolls, and intemperate presidential tweets, popular social platforms like Twitter and Facebook provide a growing medium for manipulation of information directed to individuals, institutions, and global leaders. A new type of warfare is being fought online each day, often in 280 characters or fewer. Targeted influence campaigns have been waged in at least forty-eight countries so far. We’ve entered an age where stability during an international crisis can be deliberately manipulated at greater speed, on a larger scale, and at a lower cost than at any previous time in history.

This volume examines the current reality from a variety of angles, considering how digital misinformation might affect the likelihood of international conflict and how it might influence the perceptions and actions of leaders and their publics before and during a crisis. It sounds the alarm about how social media increases information overload and promotes "fast thinking," with potentially catastrophic results for nuclear powers.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780817923358
Publisher:	Hoover Institution Press
Publication date:	03/15/2020
Pages:	248
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.70(d)

About the Author

Harold Trinkunas is the deputy director of and a senior research scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

Herbert S. Lin is a senior research scholar for cyberpolicy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

Benjamin Loehrke is the program officer for nuclear policy at the Stanley Center for Peace and Security.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables vii

Acknowledgments xx

1 Retweets to Midnight: Assessing the Effects of the Information Ecosystem on Crisis Decision Making between Nuclear Weapons States Danielle Jablanski Herbert S. Lin Harold A. Trinkunas 1

2 Psychological Underpinnings of Post-truth in Political Beliefs Rose McDermott 17

3 The Caveman and the Bomb in the Digital Age Paul Slovic Herbert S. Lin 39

4 Gaming Communication on the Global Stage: Social Media Disinformation in Crisis Situations Mark Kumleben Samuel C. Woolley 63

5 Information Operations and Online Activism within NATO Discourse Kate Starbird 79

Appendix A Temporal Patterns (Tweets per Hour) by Cluster 104

Appendix B Top Most Retweeted Accounts by Cluster 105

Appendix C Top Most Tweeted Domains by Cluster 106

Appendix D Most Frequent Terms in Account Profiles (User Descriptions) 107

Appendix E Most Frequent Terms in (Unique) Tweets by Cluster 109

Appendix F Percentage of Retweets from Retweeter Cluster (rows) to Retweeted Cluster (columns) 111

6 Of Wars and Rumors of Wars: Extra-factual Information and (In)Advertent Escalation Kelly M. Greenhill 113

7 Crisis Stability and the Impact of the Information Ecosystem Kristin Ven Bruusgaard Jaclyn A. Kerr 137

8 Bum Dope, Blowback, and the Bomb: The Effect of Bad Information on Policy-Maker Beliefs and Crisis Stability Jeffrey Lewis 159

9 The Impact of the Information Ecosystem on Public Opinion during Nuclear Crises: Lifting the Lid on the Role of Identity Narratives Ben O'Loughlin 179

10 What Can be Done to Minimize the Effects of the Global Information Ecosystem on the Risk of Nuclear War? Harold A. Trinkunas Herbert S. Lin Benjamin Loehrke 193

About the Editors and Contributors 215

Index 223

Editorial Reviews

A gripping story of how social media can result in a nuclear catastrophe, either through a blunder or through the actions of a malignant provocateur. No issue could be timelier or more important, considering the profligate use of tweets today by the president and other government officials, and the need for deliberation in dealing with national security crises.” —William J. Perry, 19th US Secretary of Defense
 
“Highlights new and rising dangers that social media pose to managing any future great power crisis, and in the extreme to avoiding nuclear war. It is a must-read for policy makers, legislators, foreign policy experts, nuclear strategists, and indeed for any serious student of national security.” —James N. Miller, former US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
 
“The next nuclear crisis will be tweeted. How decision makers cope with the increasing speed and volume of information during that crisis will weigh heavily on whether the world can avoid nuclear catastrophe. The authors in this volume brilliantly help us understand—and get ahead of—the challenges from today’s information ecosystem.” —Keith Porter, President, the Stanley Center for Peace and Security
 
“We know that the new media environment has an impact on nuclear crises, but how and when does it matter? This pathbreaking volume assembles an impressive interdisciplinary lineup to explore these questions with new frameworks, new evidence, and new arguments. An important opening contribution to what is clearly a phenomenon that is here to stay.” —Vipin Narang, Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT and a member of MIT’s Security Studies Program

From the Publisher