The Three Circles of War: Understanding the Dynamics of Conflict in Iraq

by Heather Gregg (Editor), Hy S. Rothstein (Editor), John Arquilla (Editor)

Overview

The conflict in Iraq is characterized by three faces of war: interstate conflict, civil war, and insurgency. The Coalition’s invasion of Iraq in March 2003 began as an interstate war. No sooner had Saddam Hussein been successfully deposed, however, than U.S.-led forces faced a lethal insurgency. After Sunni al Qaeda in Iraq bombed the Shia al-Askari Shrine in 2006, the burgeoning conflict took on the additional element of civil war with sectarian violence between the Sunni and the Shia.

The most effective strategies in a war as complicated as the three-level conflict in Iraq are intertwined and complementary, according to the editors of this volume. For example, the “surge” in U.S. troops in 2007 went beyond an increase in manpower; the mission had changed, giving priority to public security. This new direction also simultaneously addressed the insurgency as well as the civil war by forging new, trusting relationships between Americans and Iraqis and between Sunni and Shia. This book has broad implications for future decisions about war and peace in the twenty-first century.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781597974998
Publisher:	Potomac Books
Publication date:	07/01/2010
Pages:	272
Product dimensions:	6.20(w) x 9.00(h) x 1.10(d)

About the Author

Heather S. Gregg is an assistant professor at the Naval Postgraduate School’s department of defense analysis. Dr. Gregg is a contributing author of the RAND reports Beyond Al Qaeda (2006) and After Saddam: Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq (2008).

Table of Contents

Preface ix

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction: Analytical Framework-the Three Circles of War and Iraq John Arquilla Heather S. Gregg Hy S. Rothstein 1

Iraq's Culture

1 Identity Politics and the War in Iraq Glenn E. Robinson 11

Stabilizing Iraq

2 Political Development in Iraq Heather S. Gregg 25

3 An Economic View of Security and Reconstruction Raymond E. Franck, Jr. 35

4 Lessons from Reconstructing Indigenous Security Forces in Iraq Hy S. Rothstein 45

Understanding Our Adversaries

5 Insurgent and Terrorist Finances in Iraq Michael E. Freeman 59

6 The Internet and the Iraq Conflict Dorothy E. Denning 69

7 Intelligence and the Wars in Iraq Joshua Rovner 79

Legal and Ethical Issues

8 Legal Dimensions Christopher M. Ford 91

9 Ethics in the Three Circles of War Russell Muirhead, Jr. 103

Measuring War and Victory

10 A System Dynamics Modeling Perspective of Iraq's Conflicts Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 117

11 Metrics in Iraq's Complex Conflict Environment Karen Guttieri 137

12 System Modeling of U.S. Efforts as Applied to the War on Terrorism in Iraq and Iraq's Infrastructure Resiliency: The Indicators of Force Multipliers (INFORM) Model William P. Fox 153

Shaping Perceptions and Military Strategy

13 Strategic Communications Robert Reilly 167

14 Strategic Dimensions of the Iraq Conflict John Arquilla Douglas A. Borer 179

Conclusions

15 Considerations for Leaving Iraq Heather S. Gregg Hy S. Rothstein John Arquilla 193

Postscript 205

Appendix: Formal Modeling of Iraq Using Game Theory and Dynamic Systems William P. Fox 209

Recommended Readings 237

Index 243

About the Editors and Contributors 253

Editorial Reviews

“The Three Circles of War is a much-needed assessment of the evolving character of the Iraq War. The editors have assembled a first-rate team of contributors who illuminate the complex nature of the war. In so doing, they highlight the challenges inherent in understanding contemporary conflicts.”—Thomas Mahnken, professor of strategy, U.S. Naval War College and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for policy planning

Thomas Mahnken

“Throughout history, withdrawals from the battlefield have proved complex and fraught with danger. Time and again, nations have ensured future warfare by misunderstanding conflicts just ended. As the American drawdown in Iraq proceeds, Gregg, Rothstein, and Arquilla put us on the path toward wisdom—and what may pass for peace—by properly defining the dynamics of the Iraq War.”—Robert Andrews, former special assistant to secretary of the Army, former assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, & former Special Forces officer in Vietnam

Robert Andrews

“The Three Circles of War offers not only a thoughtful analysis on a wide range of critical issues that affected the war in Iraq, but issues that will continue to affect the wars we fight in Afghanistan and beyond. In short, this important volume should be read by anyone who wants to understand the complexities of modern-day armed conflicts, and particularly by those in the U.S. national security system with responsibility for meeting these irregular warfare challenges.”—Richard Schultz, professor of international politics, Fletcher School of International Law and Diplomacy & coauthor of Insurgents, Terrorists, and Militias: The Warriors of Contemporary Combat

Richard Schultz

The study of wars follows a temporal pattern. The media provides the ‘rough draft,’ commentators and embedded reporters collect contemporary remembrances for a partisan first look, then governments follow with official narratives. Eventually balance emerges with scholarly and objective synthesis. Those first to provide meaningful synthesis are a special breed. The Three Circles of War manages to be both first and rigorous due to its unique ability to bring together a body of distinguished scholars and analysts and shape their efforts along an original thesis that the war in Iraq was actually three ‘wars’: an interstate conflict, a civil war, and an insurgency. This eclectic and holistic volume collects the wisdom of a remarkable set of writers in many disciplines, providing readers with a deeper understanding of how each of these wars unfolded.”

“Throughout history, withdrawals from the battlefield have proved complex and fraught with danger. Time and again, nations have ensured future warfare by misunderstanding conflicts just ended. As the American drawdown in Iraq proceeds, Gregg, Rothstein, and Arquilla put us on the path toward wisdom—and what may pass for peace—by properly defining the dynamics of the Iraq War.”

“The Three Circles of War is a much-needed assessment of the evolving character of the Iraq War. The editors have assembled a first-rate team of contributors who illuminate the complex nature of the war. In so doing, they highlight the challenges inherent in understanding contemporary conflicts.”

“The Three Circles of War offers not only a thoughtful analysis on a wide range of critical issues that affected the war in Iraq, but issues that will continue to affect the wars we fight in Afghanistan and beyond. In short, this important volume should be read by anyone who wants to understand the complexities of modern-day armed conflicts, and particularly by those in the U.S. national security system with responsibility for meeting these irregular warfare challenges.”

From the Publisher