The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World

by Ruchir Sharma Narrated by William Hughes

Overview

This pioneering work demystifies the drivers behind political, economic, and social change.

Shaped by his twenty-five years traveling the world and enlivened by encounters with tycoons, presidents, and villagers from Rio to Beijing, Ruchir Sharma's The Rise and Fall of Nations rethinks the “dismal science” of economics as a practical art.

Narrowing the thousands of factors that can shape a country's fortunes to ten clear rules, Sharma explains how to spot political, economic, and social changes in real time. He shows how to read political headlines, black markets, the price of onions, and billionaire rankings as signals of booms, busts, and protests.

Set in a post-crisis age that has turned the world upside down replacing fast growth with low growth and political calm with revolt, Sharma's pioneering book is an entertaining field guide to understanding change in this era or any era.

Editorial Reviews

The Times (UK) - David Smith

"[Sharma] writes interestingly and well. . . . The book is rich in example and anecdote. . . . And it may just help you avoid picking losers."

The Indian Express

"The book is so lively and wandering that it is possible to miss the 10 rules and enjoy it just as a record of Sharma’s learning them."

Financial Times

"For insights into the forces operating in our world today, The Rise and Fall of Nations is a stimulating and useful guide."

The Wall Street Journal - William Easterly

"How do you write a compelling book about which nations will rise and fall over the next five years? Probably not by suggesting that it’s mostly random, except for extreme policy mistakes. True, Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley, offers much more than that in The Rise and Fall of Nations. He recounts his exhaustive global travel that has him meeting with Vladimir Putin on one page and listening to George W. Bush analyzing Vladimir Putin on the next, and he describes his massive research effort aimed at spotting “ten clear rules” to follow based on a huge database of many nations and many decades"

The Economist - Making sense of euphoria and despair about emerging markets

"Entertaining, acute and disarmingly honest. . . . [Sharma] has a knack for sharp comparisons between countries. Australia’s history of high immigration is contrasted with Japan’s insularity. . . . He is pithy, too. In countries with rotten financial systems, ‘a shake-up of banking is a shake-up of society.’ . . . Mr. Sharma’s book is a fine guide to the great emerging market boom and bust."

Financial Times - Martin Wolf

"In this lively and informative book, Sharma explains his system of 10 rules for identifying economies with good potential. Among the striking conclusions is his bearishness about China, largely because of its huge and growing indebtedness."

Why Some Nations Grow and Others Don't - India Today - Manish Sabharwal

"The most interesting question of all time is why countries are poor. . . . The Rise and Fall of Nations is a wonderful attempt to answer that question by asking 10 questions. . . . This book is a wonderful way to travel the world, understand the issues countries should care about."

How poor nations become rich - Prospect magazine - Duncan Weldon

"Compelling. . . a success. . . . The local insight adds color, while the data reassures us that his analysis is underpinned by more than a series of conversations with taxi drivers. . . . Much more than an investment primer. The issues he deals with, from growth to inequality, are of much broader interest. . . . This does not necessarily mean he will be right —but it does mean his projections are more easily testable. . . . Sharma’s book provides a good guide for working out what will come next."

Time Magazine - Rana Foroohar

"A vital guide to the new economic order. . . . Sharma has been one of the prescient seers of the Chinese debt crisis."

Fareed Zakaria

"Filled with amazing data. . . fascinating insights and revealing anecdotes, this is quite simply the best guide to the global economy today. Whether you are an observer or an investor, you cannot afford to ignore it."

Prannoy Roy

"If you have been wondering what’s happening to the world—why for example has England voted to commit economic suicide by leaving the European Union?. . . . The Americans have voted for Donald Trump. . . Donald Trump? What’s going on? Is there a rightwing, anti-immigrant backlash, or is it more complex? In fact much of what is happening is following a pattern, a pattern of global trends that this book has in great detail and mastery documented. . . . An amazing read, I learned a lot from it, and its out-of-the-box thinking."

Reuters - Katrina Hamlin

"What determines whether countries succeed or fail? That’s the big question Ruchir Sharma sets out to answer in The Rise and Fall of Nations…Sharma’s mission is as ambitious as it is well-executed. A mix of humble pragmatism and daring decisiveness make his tips compelling and credible…The author backs up each of the rules with a combination of hard facts and colourful anecdotes gathered on his travels…Sharma’s tried and tested tenets and eloquent delivery will reward anyone hoping to understand what determines the fickle fortunes of nations."

Library Journal

★ 05/15/2016
Sharma (head of emerging markets & global macro, Morgan Stanley Investment Management; Breakout Nations) offers ten rules in evaluating global economic growth since the 2008 financial crisis. Negative factors include a stagnant or shrinking labor force, stale leadership, rent-seeking "bad" billionaires, too much government spending, a too strong local currency, high private sector debt, and popular press hype. The author explains that geography can be a positive for progress if an advantageous location is exploited through openness and trade. Sharma also finds prolonged development in countries where investment is made in productive assets combined with low inflation. In a concluding chapter, he conducts a quick survey of where his principles currently point to advancement. Sharma presents a wealth of data and insights into the economic condition of the post-2008 world that he says is increasingly marked by deglobalization. Some of his conclusions may seem jarring but are always thought provoking, such as that past population control measures are now causing labor shortages and that economic forecasting beyond five years is rarely accurate. VERDICT This articulate work is highly recommended to all readers interested in global economics. [See Prepub Alert, 12/14/15.]—Lawrence Maxted, Gannon Univ. Lib., Erie, PA

Kirkus Reviews

2016-04-13
This efficient, positive guide for the practical observer and investor shows how to choose healthy emerging markets. After the 2008 global financial crisis, impermanence is the watchword, writes Sharma (Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles, 2012), the head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Since no one seemed to have been able to predict the 2008 meltdown, and the most-hyped emerging nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have now fallen into being considered a "bloody ridiculous investment concept," the author urges the use of skepticism, short-term planning (five or six years), and reliable data in trying to grasp forces of change. His "rules," developed over "25 years on the road" with a team of researchers, encompass the factors of growth in some "fifty-six postwar emerging economies that managed to sustain a growth rate of 6 percent for at least a decade." In each chapter, rather than moving country by country, Sharma tackles one of these factors. He looks at demographic data in order to get a sense of the makeup of the available workforce (falling birthrates are prompting countries to add incentives for having babies, such as in Singapore, France, and Chile, along with increasing the retirement age and attracting migrants), and he considers whether a new political leader will be able to enact reforms (e.g., Brazil's Lula da Silva), investigates areas of income inequality (e.g., billionaires in India), and examines state spending and how to make the most of a country's "geographic sweet spot" (e.g., Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam). Sharma discusses investment in factories, the measurement of food prices, and the importance of ignoring the "hype watch" and of keeping an eye on the locals to determine when a country is in crisis or recovery. The final chapter is a rather bold assertion of which countries might be considered "the good, the average, and the ugly." Evenhanded, measured, sage advice on the global economy.

Product Details

BN ID:	2940169578416
Publisher:	Blackstone Audio, Inc.
Publication date:	06/07/2016
Edition description:	Unabridged

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