eBook
Available on Compatible NOOK devices, the free NOOK App and in My Digital Library.
Related collections and offers
Overview
Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9780867187014 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | National Association of Home Builders |
| Publication date: | 01/01/2015 |
| Sold by: | Barnes & Noble |
| Format: | eBook |
| Pages: | 71 |
| File size: | 11 MB |
| Note: | This product may take a few minutes to download. |
About the Author
Read an Excerpt
CHAPTER 1
NTRODUCTION
How will the current housing downturn impact the size, design, features and materials consumers will prefer in new homes? What areas of the home will gain in terms of total floor area? What are the most important changes the new home will undergo in the next five years? In order to answer these and other questions about the evolution new homes are undergoing, the Economics and Housing Policy Group at NAHB conducted a survey of industry professionals in the Fall of 2010 that focused on the likely characteristics of the average, new single-family detached home in 2015.
The survey questionnaire (Appendix II) was sent electronically to 3,019 builders, designers, architects, manufacturers and marketing specialists. A total of 238 responses were received, for a 7.9 percent response rate. The findings have been analyzed by Census region as well as by the respondents' principal business operation. Exhibit 1 shows the distribution of responses among these categories.
The first section of this report will present an overview of the changing characteristics of new homes over the past four decades as a reference point for the survey's findings, relevant trends and changes in the US population and households, and demographic characteristics of the new home buyer. A second section will present this survey's findings about the likely characteristics of an average new single-family detached home in the year 2015, comparing results to a similar study published in 2007.
CHAPTER 2CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW HOMES, US POPULATION AND NEW HOME BUYERS
Changing Characteristics of New Single-Family Homes
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes annual tables detailing the major characteristics of single-family homes completed going back to as early as 1971. A review of this data helps to identify how the home has changed over the past four decades as well as which features, trends, and materials are rising (or declining) in popularity.
Completions
The total number of single-family homes completed in 2009 – 520,000 units – was the lowest since 1971. It was also 68 percent below the all-time high of 1.65 million completed in 2006. About half of all homes completed in 2009 were in the South region, 23 percent in the West, 17 percent in the Midwest, and 10 percent in the Northeast. The for-sale share of single-family completions in 2009 was 64 percent, while contractor-built represented 18 percent, owner-built 13 percent, and built for rent about 5 percent. Unpublished Census Bureau data indicate that about 360,850 single-family homes were completed in the first half of 2010.
Square Footage
The median floor area of single-family homes completed in 2009 dropped to 2,135 square feet, six percent off the peak reached in 2007, but significantly larger than the median 1,525 square feet recorded in 1973. Likewise, the average size of new homes dropped to 2,438 square feet in 2009, down three percent from its peak in 2007, yet significantly higher than the average 1,660 square feet in 1973. In the first half of 2010, the average size of new homes completed continued its downward slide, falling to 2,378 square feet, while the median size increased slightly, to 2,157 square feet.
In addition to these size measures on new homes completed, beginning in 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau started publishing the square footage of new homes started (estimated at the time the ground is broken and not when the home is completed). Because the construction of a typical single-family home takes about six months from start to completion, this measure is the earliest indicator of change in current production. According to the series on new homes started, the median size of new single-family homes peaked in 2006 at 2,259 square feet, and then declined steadily for three years, down to 2,103 square feet in 2009. In the first three quarters of 2010, however, the median size of new homes started has risen and has remained above 2,150 square feet.
Number of Stories
Forty-seven percent of single-family completions in 2009 were one-story units, an uptick from both 2008 (44 percent) and the historical low seen in 2007 (43 percent). In 1973, 67 percent of new single-family homes were only one story. Among homes completed in the first half of 2010, that share was 48 percent. Demand from aging baby boomers, who by far prefer single-story homes, is partly responsible for the recent rise in popularity of this type of housing design.
Bedrooms
In both 2005 and 2006, 39 percent of all new single-family homes completed had four bedrooms or more. Since then, that share has declined for three consecutive years, down to 34 percent in 2009. In the first half of 2010, it stood at 35 percent. In 1973, only 23 percent of new homes had 4 or more bedrooms, while 64 percent had 3 bedrooms. In 2009, 53 percent of new homes had 3 bedrooms and 13 percent had two or less bedrooms.
Bathrooms
The share of single-family homes completed with three or more baths peaked at 28 percent in both 2007 and 2008, and then fell to 24 percent in 2009. In the first half of 2010, the share remained at 24 percent. In 1987, only 12 percent of new completions were built with three baths or more. Most new homes completed in 2009 had either 2 or 2 1/2 baths – 68 percent, while only eight percent had 1 1/2 baths or less (compared to 40 percent in 1973).
Parking Facility
The share of new homes with no garage or carport has recently seen an uptick, rising from 8 percent of all completions in 2005 to 12 percent in 2009. In 1971, 26 percent of new homes had no garage or carport. Meanwhile, the incidence of homes with a 3+ car garage fell to 17 percent in 2009, after peaking at 20 percent in 2005 and leveling at 19 percent for the following three years. The most popular garage facility remains a 2-car garage – present in 62 percent of new homes completed in 2009 and in 63 percent of those completed in the first half of 2010.
Fireplace
The share of new homes with at least one fireplace fell throughout the 2000s, down to 51 percent in 2009 – the lowest since it stood at 49 percent in 1974. In contrast, between 1986 and 2000, 60 percent or more of all new homes completed had at least one fireplace. Among homes completed in the first half of 2010, less than half of them – 49 percent – had at least one fireplace.
Outdoor Features
Porches are the most popular outdoor feature, present in 62 percent of new homes completed in 2009, and significantly more widespread than in 1992, when only 42 percent of new homes had them. In the first half of 2010, 63 percent of new single-family homes completed had porches.
Patios were part of more than half of all homes completed in 2006 (51 percent), but that share has declined in recent years, down to 45 percent in 2009. The incidence of patios varies significantly by region: whereas only 22 percent of new homes in the Northeast had them in 2009, patios were included in 38 percent of new homes in the Midwest, in 49 percent of homes in the South, and in 54 percent of homes in the West.
Over the last two decades, decks have become less common, as homeowners increasingly choose to add this feature after the home purchase. In 2009, 27 percent of new homes had decks, compared to 37 percent in 1992. Among new single-family homes completed in the first half of 2010, only 25 percent included a deck.
Exterior Wall Material
The Census Bureau also collects information on the principal type of exterior wall material. In 2009, a third of all new single-family homes completed had vinyl as their principal exterior wall material, followed by brick (23 percent), stucco (19 percent), fiber cement (13 percent), and wood (9 percent). Exterior wall material is another feature that varies widely by region. Vinyl dominates in the Northeast and Midwest, brick in the South, and stucco in the West. Fiber cement is also popular in the West – a quarter of new homes completed in that region in 2009 had it as the principal exterior material.
Changes in the US Population and Households
An important factor in determining the characteristics of new homes in 2015 will be the characteristics of the US population and households that will purchase them. A review of population projections, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, reveals two important trends: the US population is getting older and more diverse. Furthermore, Census data show that in 2009 and 2010, important changes occurred to the rate of growth, size and composition of households.
In 2010, the Census Bureau estimates there are 310.2 million people in this country, of whom 25 percent are 55 years or older and 13 percent are 65 years or older (Exhibit 2). In both 1990 and 2000, only 12 percent of the population was 65 or older. By 2015, the Census projects the share of the 65+ population to be at 14 percent; by 2020, at 16 percent; and by 2050, at 20 percent.
Another relevant trend over the next few years and decades will be the growing diversity in the US population. In 2010, 16 percent of the population is Hispanic/Latino, yet that share is expected to jump to 18 percent in 2015, 19 percent in 2020, and 30 percent in 2050. Meanwhile, Asians will grow from representing about five percent of the population in both 2010 and 2015, to eight percent in 2050.
In 2010, the number of households in the US increased by a mere 0.3 percent, compared to an annual average of 1.64 percent in the period from 1960 to 2009. This is the slowest rate of growth for households since first tracked in 1960. Long term, however, when the economy fully bounces back from the last recession, household growth should return to more normal levels.
In terms of size and composition, households changed significantly over the last two years. The share of 1-person households, for example, rose most years from 1960 to 2008, peaked in 2008 at 27.5 percent, and then declined two consecutive years, down to 26.7 percent in 2010 (Exhibit 3). On the other hand, the share of households with 5+ people, on a steady decline since 1960, bottomed out at 9.8 percent from 2002 to 2008, but then rose in 2009 and 2010, up to 10.1 percent. As a result of these shifts, the average number of persons per household rose to 2.59 in 2010, the highest level since 2000.
Also in 2010, and following a decades-long downward trend, married couples represented less than half (49.7 percent) of all households for the first time ever (Exhibit 4). In 2009, married couples were 50.5 percent of total households. Another important shift to note is the percentage of households made up of "unrelated adults," which in 2010 stood at 6.2 percent – the largest share in the history of the series. The recent decline in the share of households "living alone" (i.e. 1-person households) and the increase in those of "unrelated adults" is evidence that the latest economic recession forced many people – especially young adults – to share living space.
Characteristics of the New Home Buyer
A special study recently published by NAHB based on the 2009 American Housing Survey reveals that new home buyers represent about 17 percent of the home buying population, i.e. 83 percent of home buyers purchase existing homes. On average, new home buyers are 42 years old and earn $101,811 a year. Two-thirds of them are married – 28 percent without children and 39 percent with children, 16 percent are 1-person households, 4 percent are single parents, and 13 percent fall in the "other" category. The majority of new home buyers – 76 percent – are white, non-Hispanic, 9 percent are black, non-Hispanic, 8 percent are Hispanic, and 5 percent are Asian.
Most new home buyers – 87 percent – purchased single-family detached units, while 11 percent bought single-family attached units, and 3 percent multifamily condominiums. The average and median size of the units purchased is 2,772 square feet and 2,309 square feet, respectively, yet 32 percent of new home buyers purchased homes 3,000 square feet or larger. On average, new home buyers paid $315,395 for their home, and 39 percent of them used their savings as the source for the downpayment while 34 percent used the proceeds from the sale of their previous home. For more than half of new home buyers – 54 percent – the layout/design of the home was the most important reason for choosing their home, followed distantly by size (24 percent) and price (22 percent).
SURVEY FINDINGS
Respondents' Profile
Principal and Secondary Operations of the Firm
The top three principal operations among the survey's respondents are designer (26 percent), architects (19 percent), and single-family custom builders (18 percent), followed by single-family spec/tract builder (9 percent), manufacturing (7 percent), single-family general contractor (3 percent), and marketing (2 percent). About 16 percent reported some "other" primary operation, such as engineering, land development, and planning (Exhibit 5).
More than a quarter of respondents (27 percent) reported their firm is not engaged in a secondary operation. Of the 73 percent that do have a secondary activity, 37 percent reported to be designers, 19 percent architects, and 18 percent single-family general contractors.
Regional Distribution
Survey participants represent all four Census regions: 14 percent of respondents are established in the Northeast, 20 percent in the Midwest, 41 percent in the South, and 25 percent in the West (Exhibit 6). In 2009, the Northeast was responsible for 11 percent of all housing starts in the country, the Midwest for 18 percent, the South for 50 percent, and the West region for 21 percent.
Broad Trends and Design Changes
Broad Trends in the Average, New Single-Family Detached Home over the Next Five Years
When builders, manufacturers, architects, designers, marketing specialists and other building professionals were asked to rate the probability of five broad trends taking hold over the next five years, two trends stand out as the most probable to occur: the single-family home will get smaller and it will have more green features. The former was rated as the first or second most probable trend by 74 percent of survey respondents, while the latter received those ratings from 68 percent of respondents (Exhibit 7).
Following with much smaller probabilities, 29 percent of respondents rated the trend for more technology features in the home as the first or second most likely trend, 20 percent rated the trend for more universal features likewise, and only 10 percent indicated more outdoor living features would be the dominant trend over the next five years.
Average Home Size
Survey respondents were asked about their expectation for what the average size of new homes will be in 2015, given that in the first half of 2010 it stood just below 2,400 square feet. When all answers are aggregated, respondents expect the average size of a new single-family home in 2015 to be 2,152 square feet, about 10 percent smaller than homes started in the first three quarters of 2010.
Sixty-three percent of respondents reported the average size of new homes in 2015 will be somewhere between 2,000 square feet and 2,399 square feet, 22 percent indicated it would be 2,400 square feet to 2,999 square feet, and only 1 percent over 3,000 square feet. Thirteen percent expect the average size of new homes to only be 1,600 square feet to 1,999 square feet, while two percent expect it to be less than 1,600 square feet (Exhibit 8).
In comparison, when the same question was posed to industry professionals in 2007, only 5 percent were of the opinion that new homes would have 1,999 square feet or less by 2015, 46 percent reported it would be 2,000 square feet to 2,399 square feet, and 48 percent expected it to top 2,400 square feet
Housing Design
In terms of number of stories, slightly more than half (52 percent) of survey respondents indicated that two-story homes will be the most commonly built housing design in 2015. Forty-three percent reported that one-story homes will be the most common design, while five percent expect split level homes to be the most popular design (Exhibit 9). There is significant regional variation in what respondents expect: while 69 percent of those in the Northeast report two-story homes will be the most common design, only 53 percent of those in the South, 52 percent in the West, and 42 percent in the Midwest have the same opinion.
There has been an important shift in what building professionals expect the most common housing design to be in 2015. In 2007, a much larger share – 65 percent – expected two-story homes to be the predominant design by 2015, while only 34 percent expected it to be one-story homes, and one percent split levels.
(Continues…)
Excerpted from "The New Home in 2015"
by .
Copyright © 2011 NAHB.
Excerpted by permission of National Association of Home Builders.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. solely for the personal use of visitors to this web site.
Table of Contents
Introduction,
Characteristics of New Homes, US Population, and New Home Buyers,
Changing Characteristics of New Single-Family Homes,
Changes in the US Population and Households,
Characteristics of the New Home Buyer,
Survey Findings,
Respondents' Profile,
Principal and secondary operations of the firm,
Regional distribution,
Broad Trends and Design Changes,
Broad trends in the average, new single-family detached home over the next five years,
Average home size,
Housing design,
Ceiling height of entry foyer and family room,
How living room will change,
Location of stairs,
Areas of the home that will increase, decrease or stay the same,
Features Likely to Be Included in an Average, New Single-Family Detached Home in 2015,
Rooms/features,
Universal/accessibility features,
Technology features,
Green features,
Outdoor features,
Kitchen features,
Bathroom features,
Neighborhood/community features,
Outside material,
Expected Changes in Offerings and Ethnic Design,
How features will be offered, standard vs. optional,
Trend towards ethnic-oriented design,
Appendix I: Detailed Tables,
Appendix II: Survey Questionnaire,