The Future of the Gulf Region: Value Change and Global Cycles

by Arno Tausch

Overview

This book studies values and attitudes in the Gulf region. In light of global power shifts, the threatening collapse of internal security in the West, and uncertainty about the current leadership vacuum in world society, this book explores a future leading role of the Gulf countries in such institutions as the
G-20 and the OECD. Based on rigorous analysis of macro-level data and opinion surveys with relevance for the Gulf region, it analyzes the global macro-factors shaping the Gulf's future at a time of the global COVID-19 crisis and depression and rising global tensions. Starting with an empirical time series analysis of the long cycles of global politics and economics, it highlights the implications for the Gulf region. Offering a multivariate analysis of civil society values in the Gulf, the author analyzes value changes and attitudes on antisemitism, political Islam, internal security, democracy, and other issues of Arab politics. The partially optimistic conclusions of the study testify to the underestimated and incipient maturity of the Gulf’s civil society and strongly suggest that the Gulf's future is rather with the free societies of the West and not with a Neo-Ottoman Empire in whatever form.

"Exceptional in scope and right up-to-the-minute in coverage"

Brian M Pollins, Associate, Professor Emeritus, The Ohio State University.

"An outstanding and topical book by an astute scholar of the MENA region"

Professor Hussein Solomon, Academic Head of Department, Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa.

"The most comprehensive and insightful study on the subject to date"

Manfred B. Steger, Professor of Sociology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa and Global Professorial Fellow, Western Sydney University.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9783030782986
Publisher:	Springer International Publishing
Publication date:	08/09/2021
Series:	Gulf Studies , #2
Edition description:	1st ed. 2021
Pages:	449
Product dimensions:	6.10(w) x 9.25(h) x (d)

About the Author

Arno Tausch is a Honorary Associate Professor of Economics, Corvinus University, Budapest, Hungary (since Fall Semester 2010) and Adjunct Professor (Universitaetsdozent) of political science at Innsbruck University, Department of Political Science, Innsbruck University, Austria (since 1988). He served as an Austrian diplomat abroad and was attaché, and later counselor for labor and migration at the Austrian Embassy in Warsaw, 1992-1999. He authored or coauthored books and articles for major international publishers and journals, among them 22 books in English, 2 books in French, 8 books in German, and around 100 articles in peer-reviewed journals and also numerous articles in the media of several countries.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction: Factors affecting the Gulf's future.- Chapter 2. Methodology and data for assessing the effects of Global Cycles and Value Change on the Future of the Gulf Region.- Chapter 3. Covid-19 and the contours of the impending global crisis: Western meltdown, Gulf fallout?.- Chapter 4. Caught in the “Thucydides Trap”? Revisiting Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security and their implications for the Gulf region.- Chapter 5. Learning from classical Arab writers: G-Zero and the cultural aspects of changing global leadership: rediscovering Ibn Khaldun’s “Asabiyya” with the latest PEW Global Survey and World Values Survey data.- Chapter 6. Value change and patterns of development in the rich Arab countries.- Chapter 7. Antisemitism – the second contemporary pandemic and what the Gulf countries can do to overcome it.- Chapter 8. Saudi Arabia - Religion, gender and the desire for democracy.- Chapter 9. Executive Summary, Conclusions and Perspectives.

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

“As a researcher with a long background in cross-national research (from The World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators to my current work leading a global social research company), I was thrilled to read Arno Tausch’s latest book. While the very timely focus is on the Gulf countries, the book provides a broad benefit to researchers through its use of multiple data sources, multi-variate statistical analysis, and comparisons of aggregate and survey-based data (such as the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer, and Pew’s Global Attitudes Project), all of which are available to the public. The author is well aware of how one’s personal values and orientation can affect quantitative analysis, as the numbers seldom speak for themselves. The book has abundant (so ramp up your mouse’s scroll speed) reference materials, links to data sources, and excellent data presentation with choropleth maps. This book should be on the “shelf” of every student of the MiddleEast, development, and public opinion research”. David A. Jodice, Founder and CEO, D3 Systems, Inc.

“Excellent work, well informed about the Arab World, with insightful references to quantitative data and opinion surveys. Few books may rival with this well-documented exploration of the Gulf’s future. A must-read”. Dr. Hichem Karoui, Director at large of "The Gulf Futures Center," London.

"This book represents an unprecedented research work relating to a subject that has not received the adequate response from the scientific community. Arno Tausch deserves our admiration for the formidable work done on this subject. No doubt that it is a great contribution to our understanding the role of the different actors referred to in this monumental research book." Dr. Jacques Neriah, Late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s Foreign Policy Adviser and Editor of Jewish Political Studies Review

“This book is exceptional in scope and right up-to-the-minute in coverage. Dr, Arno Tausch has unusual command of literatures in international relations and comparative politics which he applies to this insightful study of the Gulf States. Tausch presents original empirical results and interprets relevant published results to makes his case that income and gender inequalities pose the greatest internal challenges to these countries today. And there is more: Tausch looks to the future of the Gulf states by situating their societies and economies within the region and the global system as a whole making use of long-term historical data and weighing effects of recent wide-ranging developments from the rise of China to the Covid pandemic to the Abraham Accords. Observers of the Middle East will certainly want this thought-provoking, thoroughly researched study on their shelf.” Brian M Pollins, Associate Professor Emeritus, The Ohio State University

"An outstanding and topical book by an astute scholar of the MENA region. Arno Tausch's tour de force of the Gulf region confronting economic crisis on the scale of the Great Depression, political upheaval, a seemingly unending pandemic and inequality and restrictive gender norms is a must-read for policy maker and academic. Meticulously researched, expertly contextualized, Tausch explores the future of the Gulf States and the difficult choices their leaders confront." Professor Hussein Solomon, Academic Head of Department, Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa.

"Applying a highly sophisticated mixed-methods framework that includes both quantitative and qualitative approaches, Arno Tausch's brilliant assessment of current and future socio-political trends in the Gulf region is the most comprehensive and insightful study on the subject to date. Of particular interest is the book's careful examination of how the current COVID-19 pandemic will affect internal social dynamics in Gulf states as well as their relationship to a world that is dangerously wavering between globalist expansion and nationalist retrenchment." Manfred B. Steger, Professor of Sociology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa and Global Professorial Fellow, Western Sydney University.