Table of Contents
Introduction 11
1 The Basses of Betting 13
The Oddsmakers 14
Setting the Line 15
Favorites versus Underdogs 19
The Spread 20
The Moneyline 24
The Total 26
The Juice 28
2 Bankroll Management 31
Setting Up Your Bankroll 32
The Importance of Flat Betting 33
Bet to Risk versus Bet to Win 36
Limit Your Plays 38
Avoid Handicappers and Touts 40
3 Realistic Expectations 43
Luck and Randomness 44
The House Always Wins 46
Sportsbooks Win Mostly Because of the Juice 47
The Break-Even Point 48
No Overnight Millionaires 51
4 Remove All Bias 55
Don't Bet Like a Fan 56
Don't Overreact to Recent Trends 59
Buy on Bad News, Sell on Good 61
The Gambler's Fallacy 62
Confirmation Bias 65
5 Alternative Bets 67
Partial-Game Lines 68
Live Lines 72
Parlays (And Why You Should Avoid Them) 74
Prepositional Bets 78
6 Contrarian Betting 85
Betting Against the Public 86
Shaded Lines 88
The Contrarian Magic Number 90
Focus On the Most Popular Bet Type 92
Target Heavily Bet Games 94
Look for Televised Games, Rivalry Games, and Playoff Games 95
7 Follow Sharp Action 101
Who Are the Professional Bettors? 102
Bet Signals 105
Bets versus Dollars Discrepancies 112
8 Learn from the Past 117
Betting Systems 118
How to Create a Betting System 125
9 Making a Pick 129
Check Off All the Boxes 130
Bet Favorites Early and Underdogs Late 136
How to Judge the Value of Your Bet 138
10 How to Place a Bet 145
Betting at a Sportsbook in Person 146
Betting Through an Online Sportsbook 150
Three Types of Sportsbooks 153
Shop for the Best Line 156
11 How to Bet Baseball 159
Action versus Listed Pitcher 160
Avoid Big Favorites and Heavy Public Favorites 161
Take Advantage of Divisional Underdogs 162
Bet Against the Public 164
Reverse Line Movement 165
Bad Teams after Wins 166
American League Teams in Interleague Play 167
Windy Unders 168
Know the Umpires 172
12 How to Bet the NFL 175
Key Numbers for Spread 176
Home-Field Advantage Is Real, but Overvalued 179
Divisional Underdogs 180
Betting Against the Public 182
Take Advantage of Reverse Line Movement 185
13 How to Bet College Football 195
Home-Field Advantage Is Incredibly Overvalued 196
14 How to Bet the NBA 209
Home-Court Advantage Is Overvalued 210
Contrarian Road Underdogs 211
15 How to Bet College Basketball 221
Home-Court Advantage Is Overvalued 222
Betting Against the Public 222
Bet Against the Public on Saturdays 225
March Madness 228
16 How to Bet Daily Fantasy Sports 231
The Basics of DFS 232
Important DFS Terms to Know 234
How to Bet Fantasy MLB 237
How to Bet Fantasy NBA 240
How to Bet Fantasy NFL 242
17 The Mental Game 245
Track Your Plays 246
No Pain, No Gain 248
Build a Betting Community 249
Grinders with Binders 251
Appendix A Glossary 253
Appendix B Online Resources 269
Index 273
