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Originally published in 1974.
The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9780691618371 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | Princeton University Press |
| Publication date: | 03/08/2015 |
| Series: | Office of Population Research , #1545 |
| Pages: | 328 |
| Product dimensions: | 6.00(w) x 9.10(h) x 0.80(d) |
Read an Excerpt
The Decline of Fertility in Germany, 1871-1939
By John E. Knodel
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
Copyright © 1974 Princeton University PressAll rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-691-09359-8
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Since the beginning of the nineteenth century most European countries have experienced major economic, social, and demographic transformations which collectively social scientists today label modernization. The Industrial Revolution, which had begun towards the end of the eighteenth century in Great Britain, spread throughout much of Europe in the century that followed. The changes that occurred during this modern period of history were much broader, however, than those directly involved in the emergence of modern industry. Among the most important of the concomitant developments was the shift from moderately high birth and death rates to substantially lower ones. By the economic depression of the 1930s, this demographic transition, as it is often labeled, had reached the point in much of Northern, Western, and Central Europe where the populations were reproducing themselves at a level near or below replacement despite the substantially reduced levels of mortality.
The transformation of Germany from a predominantly rural agrarian state to a highly urban industrialized society occurred in the main between the political unification of Germany in 1871 and the beginning of World War II. At the time of unification industry consisted typically of handicrafts pursued in the home and small workshops. By 1910, industry was based on coal and iron and factory production. Germany's industrialization, although temporarily checked by defeat in World War I and the Great Depression, had more than fully recovered before the defeat in World War II. The magnitude of some of the social and economic changes that comprised the modernization of Germany are evident from the statistical series presented in Table 1.1. In 1871, almost two thirds of the population lived in rural areas. Within four decades this situation was reversed. In the same period the percentage of the population living in cities with over 100,000 population had increased more than fourfold. Between 1882 and 1939 the proportion of the population that was dependent on agriculture and other primary industries for their livelihood was reduced by more than half. Women became increasingly involved in the nonagricultural labor force. Large manufacturing concerns proliferated particularly rapidly during the decades prior to World War I while the network of railroads continued the expansion begun during the mid-nineteenth century. One of the effects of these changes was a practically steady rise in per capita output to a level in 1925 triple that of seven decades earlier.
This same period was also characterized by sweeping demographic changes. From 34 million inhabitants in 1843, the population of Germany practically doubled by 1913. Population density increased from 62 per square kilometer to over 120. Mortality and fertility fell to much lower levels (Table 1.2). Life expectancy at birth rose by 24 years between the 1870s and the 1930s. Infant mortality was reduced to only a small fraction of its previous level. During the same decades the crude birth rate declined by more than 50 percent. In fact, after a period of fluctuation in the middle of the nineteenth century, both birth and death rates declined almost steadily until just prior to World War II, when fertility was well below replacement, despite the great reduction in mortality.
Most discussions of the demographic transition link the long term changes in vital rates to the process of industrialization or modernization. It is clear that all countries today which can be considered as fully part of the developed world experienced a substantial secular decline in fertility and mortality. In Germany, as the tables above have shown, there was a general coincidence between industrialization and demographic transition. How close the connection is between these two major processes in Germany or in the rest of Europe, however, is much less clear. Perhaps the principal reason for the uncertainty has been the absence of research empirically documenting the demographic changes in anything more than their crudest outlines.
The task of the present study is to examine in detail the secular decline in fertility that occurred in Germany between unification and World War II. Mortality trends are investigated only with respect to their possible consequences for long term changes in fertility. Efforts to study the German fertility decline are not new. From the time when a declining birth rate was first evident until the recovery of fertility during the Third Reich, scores of German scholars wrote about the Geburtenrückgang. Many merely decried the falling birth rate as a sign of moral decay and national degeneration. Others, however, were more analytical in their discussion. As the literature proliferated, bitter controversies developed over causes and consequences. Treatments of the subject were generally polemical although occasionally attempts were made to reconcile divergent positions (e.g. Müller, 1922; Kosic, 1917). Opponents used ad hoc theorizing as well as statistical data to support their views. The onset of the Third Reich with its ambitious population programs and the concurrent rise in natality eclipsed concern among German demographers about the past decades of falling fertility. During the post-World War II period little work has emerged from Germany concerning the historical transition from high to low fertility that occurred in the seven decades before the war.
In view of the vast amount of detailed demographic data available for German states during the period of fertility decline, it is surprising that previous studies have not exploited this material more fully in order to present a comprehensive description of fertility trends. Many studies relied solely on crude birth rates. Even the relatively sophisticated treatments of the fertility decline that utilized more refined measures left much to be desired. No attempts were made to estimate the date of the onset of the decline or the rate of the decline for the different areas of Germany. The explanations offered for the decline were also unsatisfactory. Most writers suggested one or another single factor as the prime mover in the decline rather than attempting to utilize a more general perspective. Many of the disputes found in the earlier literature resulted from a confusion of the levels of explanation involved. Thus one writer would argue that increased use of contraception was responsible for declining fertility, another would stress increased employment of women, and neither would recognize that the two explanations were not necessarily incompatible. With the recent interest in a thorough reassessment of the demographic transition and in particular in the decline of fertility in Europe, a new analysis of the German experience is in order. The past studies, however, can be helpful in suggesting directions to this research.
The present study attempts both to describe and to analyze the German fertility decline. The task of description is the easier although not necessarily the less important since a comprehensive knowledge of the facts is a prerequisite for any adequate explanation. The main part of the description is concerned with identifying and depicting geographical and sociological differentials in the fertility decline. Thus fertility trends of administrative areas of Germany are described in detail. The use of these geographical areas as a basic unit of observation is dictated largely by the fact that censuses and vital statistics present data on this basis. Moreover, to the extent that the spread of the fertility decline followed geographical patterns, such a unit of analysis is useful in identifying these patterns. The description of demographic trends for each area includes factoring overall fertility into three components of marital fertility, illegitimate fertility, and proportions married.
In addition to a full description of the fertility decline in each administrative area of Germany, an attempt is made to delineate the differential trends in fertility among the various sectors of the German society. The choice of variables which can be used in categorizing the German population for this purpose is restricted largely to those for which data are available in the published census and vital statistics reports. This allows classification of fertility trends by residence (rural-urban), occupation, and religion. In addition, some indirect evidence is available with respect to fertility differences according to wealth and ethnic affiliation. This data is used to identify sociological differentials in the timing and extent of decline.
An analysis of the fertility decline in Germany beyond pure description of trends and differentials is considerably more difficult, particularly if it attempts to identify underlying causes. In the first place, of the many possible factors which might have brought about a basic change in fertility behavior, very few can be identified through available statistics. Thus only a limited number of crude indices can be used in an attempt to explain changes which are most likely intricate and complex. Second, there are various levels of causation, and it is not always clear which are the most appropriate. Third, causal analysis through statistical manipulation, the basic method to which demographers are usually confined, is rarely conclusive. Possible associations with factors not held constant inherently plague interpretations.
The search for factors associated with the fertility decline is limited in the present study to a consideration of hypotheses that can be tested with the available statistics. The main approach is to associate changes in independent variables with the onset or course of the fertility decline in different geographical areas or in different social groups. Since the data described and analyzed refer generally to areas or groups and not to individuals, the danger of the "ecological fallacy" runs high. In fact it would be logically incorrect to try to determine the characteristics of individual families that limit fertility by analyzing data that supplies only averages for large aggregates. The most that can be expected, even with the best of luck and analytical skill, is an identification of the broad social and economic circumstances that made Germany susceptible to a decline in fertility.
Two working hypotheses are prominent in determining the strategy of the present study. First, the emphasis is on the course of marital fertility rather than other demographic components of fertility trends. This is based on the working hypothesis (subject to verification later) that the secular decline in fertility that occurred over the last century in Germany, and indeed in the rest of Europe, was due essentially to a reduction of births within marriage. Overall fertility is a product not only of marital fertility but of illegitimacy and the proportions married as well. Thus an index of marital fertility is a more appropriate instrument for analyzing the fertility decline than an index of overall fertility. Since the conditions affecting secular changes in marital fertility are not necessarily the same as those that influence the other components of overall fertility, marital fertility should be more sensitive to the factors underlying the fertility decline. Illegitimate fertility and nuptiality patterns will not be ignored, and their role in determining patterns of overall fertility will be considered, but relatively minor attention will be given them.
A second working hypothesis (subject to partial verification later) defines the fertility decline that occurred in Germany during the latter decades of the nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth century as a unique, clearly identifiable, and irreversible phenomenon in the course of German demographic history. Prior to the onset of this decline, marital fertility is assumed to be high and relatively constant for a long period of time. Such an assumption need not rule out the possible existence of limited fertility control within marriage during the predecline period. It does mean, however, that if such control existed it was not widespread or that it was not practiced either extensively or efficiently. Fluctuations in predecline fertility over time are considered probable, but any long term trends would be either gradual or inconclusive. The modern fertility decline, in contrast, represents a distinct break from past trends. Through the adoption, increased use, or diffusion of fertility control within marriage, the practice of intensive family limitation became customary. The result was a rapid unprecedented reduction of marital fertility. Subsequent fluctuations in marital fertility in response to changing social and economic conditions took place and will continue to do so, but the possibility of a return to the much higher predecline levels is precluded.
Administrative and Geographical Subdivisions
During the years between unification in 1871 and World War II, Germany was subdivided at several levels for administrative purposes. The broadest division separated Germany into states (Staaten). These were subdivided into small districts (Kreise or Ämter). In addition, the larger states were divided into middle level administrative areas. Prussia had a dual system of middle level areas. In 1900, for example, the Prussian State was divided into 14 provinces (Provinzeri) which in turn contained a total of 35 smaller units (Regierungsbezirke). Bavaria, Saxony, Württemberg, Baden, Hesse, and Oldenburg all possessed a single system of middle level administrative areas. The states themselves differed greatly from each other in population size and territorial area. In 1900, for example, more than 60 percent of Germany's 56 million inhabitants resided in Prussia, which covered almost twothirds of the national area. In contrast less than 34 thousand lived in the smallest state, Schaumburg-Lippe.
Because of the inordinate differences in population size, the state per se is not the appropriate unit for the present study of regional demographic trends. The small administrative districts are also unsuitable. There are too many of them, well over 1,000 and detailed vital statistics and census data are not generally available on the basis of such small units. Instead a combination of middle level administrative areas, where they exist, and states, where they do not, can best serve as the basic geographical units in the present study. In Prussia the smaller Regierungsbezirke rather than the larger Provinzen are used.
Most states and middle level administrative areas remained intact as administrative units between 1871 and the mid-1930s. In fact most existed long before 1871. Thus continuous statistical series on these levels can be assembled. In several instances, however, changes did occur. States or middle level areas were either consolidated or redivided. For the present study, the larger units (when either consolidation or redivision occurred) were chosen to permit comparison over time. Table 1.3 indicates the number and title of the administrative unit used in the present study for each German state. The average population size of all the administrative areas within each state is shown for 1900.
In the remainder of this study the small states and middle level administrative areas which serve as the basic geographic units in the study will be referred to simply as the administrative areas of Germany. Map 1.1 shows these areas according to their 1900 boundaries. The German names for the administrative areas used in the official statistics have been retained and will be used as such in the text and tables. For convenience sake each area was given a number which is also shown on the map. Map 1.2 shows the German states and Prussian provinces. States or provinces for which equivalent English names exist, such as Prussia (Preussen) or Bavaria (Bayern), are referred to by their English name on the map as they will be in the text and tables. The only exception to this rule will be provinces or states which themselves are administrative areas. In order to avoid confusion, their German name will be used whether they are being referred to as administrative areas or as provinces or states.
(Continues...)
Excerpted from The Decline of Fertility in Germany, 1871-1939 by John E. Knodel. Copyright © 1974 Princeton University Press. Excerpted by permission of PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS.
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Table of Contents
- Frontmatter, pg. i
- Foreword, pg. vii
- Preface, pg. ix
- Contents, pg. xi
- List of Tables, pg. xiii
- List of Maps and Figures, pg. xix
- CHAPTER 1: Introduction, pg. 1
- CHAPTER 2: Trends in German Fertility and Nuptiality, pg. 38
- CHAPTER 3: Social Differentials in the German Fertility Decline, pg. 88
- CHAPTER 4: Demographic Change and Fertility Decline: Infant Mortality, pg. 148
- CHAPTER 5: Demographic Change and Fertility Decline: Emigration, Migration, and Urbanization, pg. 188
- CHAPTER 6: The Social Context of the German Fertility Decline, pg. 223
- CHAPTER 7: Summary of Findings, pg. 246
- APPENDIX 1A. The Choice of a Regional Classification for Germany, pg. 263
- APPENDIX 1B Comparison of the Demographic Indices with Conventional Measures Based on the German Experience 1800-1925, pg. 266
- APPENDIX 2A: Democraphic Indices for Germany – If, Ig, Ih, Im, and Im*, – for Each Administrative Area and for Each Province or State Consisting of More than One Administrative Area, pg. 270
- APPENDIX 2B: Notes on Data Adjustments Involved in the Computation of the Basic Demographic Indices in Appendix Table 2.1, pg. 276
- APPENDIX 3: Rural-Urban Marital Fertility for Selected German States and Administrative Areas, pg. 279
- APPENDIX 4 (Tables 4.1, 4.2, & 4.3), pg. 288
- Official Statistical Sources, pg. 292
- Other References, pg. 294
- Index, pg. 301