The 2008 Election in Florida: Change! But Only at the Top of the Ticket

by Robert E. Crew Jr.

Overview

During 2008, the Democrats achieved in Florida a goal that had eluded them in all but three of the national elections since 1964: victory in the presidential race. Despite this success, the Republicans retained their dominance in the U.S. Congress and in the Florida State Legislature. The 2008 Elections in Florida utilizes multiple types of data to provide an explanation for the disparate outcomes of these elections. The book chronicles changes in voter registration and turnout over time and compares the electoral behavior of groups in Florida to that in the nation as a whole. It examines the importance of legislative apportionment, term limits and incumbency to the outcome of congressional and state legislative races and provides important clues to the future of electoral behavior in one of the nation's most important states.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780761854265
Publisher:	University Press of America
Publication date:	06/21/2011
Series:	Patterns and Trends in Florida Elections
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	120
Product dimensions:	5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.30(d)

About the Author

Robert E. Crew, Jr. is professor of political science and director of the graduate program in applied American politics at Florida State University. He studies American politics, U.S. social policy, and electoral politics in Florida and the nation. His most recent book is Jeb Bush: Aggressive Conservatism in Florida.
Slater W. Bayliss is a political consultant in the Tallahassee, Florida, firm of Tew Cardenas. He is currently a graduate student in the masters program in applied American politics at Florida State University.
Monica L. Moore is a graduate student in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Table of Contents

List of Illustrations vii

Preface ix

Part I The 2008 Presidential Election in Florida

1 An Overview 3

Introduction 3

The 2008 Election in Historical Perspective 4

2 The Florida Presidential Primaries 5

Introduction 5

Who Were the Candidates? 6

How the Florida Primaries Were Contested 7

Summary 13

3 The General Election in Florida 15

The Strategic Context 15

Positioning, Targeting and Message 16

How the Democrats Campaigned: The Ground Game 17

How the Democrats Campaigned: The Air Wars 21

How the Republicans Campaigned: The Ground Game 23

How the Republicans Campaigned: The Air Wars 25

4 The Election Results 27

Early and Absentee Voting 28

The Pattern of Results 32

The County-by-County Results 34

Explaining Increased Competitiveness 36

Part II Voting Behavior in the Florida Presidential Election

5 Who Voted and in What Numbers? 43

Voter Registration and Turnout in Florida in Historical Perspective 44

Voter Registration in the 2008 Election 44

Voter Turnout in the 2008 Election 51

Turnout across Counties 51

6 Social Groups and the Vote 56

Group Voting in Florida: 2004 and 2008 56

Group Voting: Florida and the Nation 62

Summary 65

7 Candidates and Issues in the 2008 Campaign 66

The Concerns of the Electorate 66

Candidate Qualities 70

Part III The Congressional Elections

8 The Outcome of the 2008 Congressional Races 75

Introduction 75

District by District Analysis 78

Incumbency Success 94

Explaining Incumbency Success: Challenger Quality and Campaign Spending 96

Summary 106

Part IV The State Legislative Races

9 The Outcome of the 2008 Election Cycle 109

Introduction 109

Outcome 111

Explaining Non-Competitiveness: The Cocktail of Apportionment, Incumbency, and Term Limits 112

The Effects of the Cocktail in the 2008 Legislative Campaigns 114

Minor Party Candidates 116

Tight Legislative Races 117

Part V The Florida Elections of 2008 in Perspective

10 The 2008 Elections and the Future of Florida Politics 125

State Legislative Elections 126

Legislative Reapportionment 127

Bibliography 129

Index 133

Editorial Reviews

Crew and Bayliss have done an excellent job of dissecting Florida's voters' wishes over the past decade. Thanks to their efforts, many more readers will now better understand what goes on politically in our great state.

Al Cardenas

An informative and comprehensive assessment of the dynamics at play in the 2008 races. Crew and Bayliss create a thorough account of the electoral outcomes in the nation's most important swing state.

Karen Thurman

An engaging and insightful analysis of electoral politics in Florida. By examining the presidential, congressional and state legislative elections of 2008 in both historical and comparative contexts, Crew and Bayliss offer a sweeping look at the dynamics of voting and elections in Florida. For all who are interested in electoral politics in the Sunshine State, this book is a must read.

Brad Gomez

Crew and Bayliss have done an excellent job of dissecting Florida's voters' wishes over the past decade. Thanks to their efforts, many more readers will now better understand what goes on politically in our great state.--Al Cardenas, former chair, Republican Party of Florida

An informative and comprehensive assessment of the dynamics at play in the 2008 races. Crew and Bayliss create a thorough account of the electoral outcomes in the nation's most important swing state.--Karen Thurman, chair, Democratic Party of Florida

An engaging and insightful analysis of electoral politics in Florida. By examining the presidential, congressional and state legislative elections of 2008 in both historical and comparative contexts, Crew and Bayliss offer a sweeping look at the dynamics of voting and elections in Florida. For all who are interested in electoral politics in the Sunshine State, this book is a must read.--Brad Gomez, associate professor of political science, Florida State University

From the Publisher