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Overview
How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox.
The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9780262039871 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | MIT Press |
| Publication date: | 08/13/2019 |
| Series: | The MIT Press |
| Pages: | 488 |
| Product dimensions: | 6.20(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.10(d) |
| Age Range: | 18 Years |
About the Author
Timothy J. Pleskac is Professor of Psychology at the University of Kansas and Adjunct Researcher at the Center for Adaptive Rationality.
Thorsten Pachur is Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Adaptive Rationality.
Table of Contents
Preface xi
Contributors xv
I The Research Agenda
1 Reckoning with Uncertainty: Our Program of Research Ralph Hertwig Timothy J. Pleskac Thorsten Pachur 3
II The Heuristic Mind
2 The Robust Beauty of Heuristics in Choice under Uncertainty Ralph Hertwig Jan K. Woike Thorsten Pachur Eduard Brandstätter 29
3 Using Risk-Reward Structures to Reckon with Uncertainty Timothy J. Pleskac Ralph Hertwig Christina Leuker Larissa Conradt 51
4 Going Round in Circles: How Social Structures Guide and Limit Search Christin Schulze Thorsten Pachur 71
5 Strategic Uncertainty and incomplete Information: The Homo Heuristicus Does Not Fold Leonidas Spiliopoulos Ralph Hertwig 89
6 Toward Simple Eating Rules for the Land of Plenty Mattea Dallacker Jutta Mata Ralph Hertwig 111
III The Exploring Mind
7 Adaptive Exploration: What You See Is Up to You Dirk U. Wulff Doug Markant Timothy J. Pleskac Ralph Hertwig 131
8 The Weight of Uncertain Events Thorsten Pachur Ralph Hertwig 153
9 Tomorrow Never Knows: Why and How Uncertainty Matters in Intertemporal Choice Junyi Dai Thorsten Pachur Timothy J. Pleskac Ralph Hertwig 175
10 Experiences and Descriptions of Financial Uncertainty: Are They Equivalent? Tomás Lejarraga Jan K. Woike Ralph Hertwig 191
11 Ways to Learn from Experience Thorsten Pachur Dries Trippas 207
IV The Social Mind
12 Rivals in the Dark: Trading Off Strategic and Environmental Uncertainty Doug Markant Ralph Hertwig 225
13 The Ecological Rationality of the Wisdom of Crowds Stefan M. Herzog Aleksandra Litvinova Kyanoush S. Yahosseini Alan N. Tump Ralf H.M. Kurvers 245
14 Crowds on the Move Mehdi Moussaïd 263
V The Unfinished Mind
15 Computational Evolution and Ecologically Rational Decision Making Peter D. Kvam Arend Hintze Timothy J. Pleskac David Pietraszewski 285
16 How the Adaptive Adolescent Mind Navigates Uncertainty Wouter van den Bos Corinna Laube Ralph Hertwig 305
17 The Life-Span Development of Risk Preference Rui Mata Renato Frey 325
VI Looking Back to Look Forward
18 Interpreting Uncertainty: A Brief History of Not Knowing Anastasia Kozyreva Timothy J. Pleskac Thorsten Pachur Ralph Hertwig 343
VII Accompanying Material
Glossary of Key Concepts Anastasia Kozyreva Philipp Gerlach 365
References 371
Name Index 431
Subject Index 447
Interactive Elements and Supplementary Material: https://taming-nncertainty.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/
What People are Saying About This
"How do human beings deal with uncertainty? Ralph Hertwig and colleagues from the Center of Adaptive Rationality have assembled a series of provocative and impressive answers, ranging from the abstract to the concrete. One of the most fascinating chapters discusses healthy food decisions; another explores how pedestrians move in crowds. A terrific, and quite major, contribution to both theory and practice."
—Cass R. Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor, Harvard University, and author, The Cost-Benefit Revolution"Do we need complex strategies to thrive in a radically unpredictable physical and social environment? Taming Uncertainty powerfully argues that we may not: that a collection of flexible, and remarkably simple, heuristics may be the secret of our individual, and collective, success. A radical and important thesis."
—Nick Chater, Professor of Behavioral Science, Warwick Business School and author of The Mind Is Flat"Uncertainty is the lifeblood of our daily lives, and smart heuristics are the tools to tame it. This excellent collaborative work builds on and extends the emerging science of heuristics, spanning an impressive range of topics. A highly recommendable read.”
—Gerd Gigerenzer, Director, Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin