Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective, With a New Preface / Edition 1

by Ephraim Kam

Overview

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim’s failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasizing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgmental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780674013544
Publisher:	Harvard University Press
Publication date:	05/15/2004
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	304
Product dimensions:	6.12(w) x 9.25(h) x 0.75(d)

About the Author

Ephraim Kam is Senior Research Fellow and former Deputy Director at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv, Israel.

Table of Contents

Foreword by Thomas C. Schelling

Introduction

PART I: THE COMPONENTS OF SUPRISE ATTACK

1. The Essence of Suprise Attack
Reaction to Disasters and Warnings

Aspects of Erroneous Estimates

The Strategic Warning

Surprise and Military Preparedness

2. Information and Indicators

Quality of Intelligence Information

Early Warning Indicators

Signal and Noise

Quantity of Intelligence Information

3. Intentions and Capabilities

Inference and Difficulties in Estimating Intentions

The Enemy's Conceptual Framework

Risk Taking by the Enemy

Estimating Capabilities

PART II: JUDGMENTAL BIASES AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

4. Conceptions and Incoming Information

The Set of Conceptions

The Persistence of Conceptions

Assimilating Information

Information and Expectations

Treating Discrepant Information

Cognitive Biases and Overconfidence

5. The Process of Analysis

Prediction and Intelligence Analysis

Stages of Intelligence Analysis

Approaches for Generating and Evaluating Hypotheses

Analogies and Learning from History

Evaluating Incoming Information

hoosing among Alternative Hypotheses

External Obstacles to Perception

Changing a View

PART III: THE ENVIROMENT

6. The Analyst and the Small Group

The Other Opinion

Groupthink

Pressures for Conformity

The Leader and the Expert

Group Risk Taking

7. Organizational Obstacles

The Military Organization

Rivalry, Coordination, and Communication

Intrinsic Problems in the Intelligence Organization

Military Men and Suprise Attack

8. Intelligence and Decision Makers

Decision Makers and Intelligence Production

Commitment to a Policy

How Decision Makers Affect the Intelligence Process

Decision Makers and Suprise Attack

Conclusion: Is Suprise Attack Inevitable?

The Complexity of the Problem

Why Safeuards Usually Fail

War without Surprise?

Notes

Bibliography

Index

What People are Saying About This

Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.

Ehud Barak

Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.
— Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel

Editorial Reviews

Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.

Ehud Barak