Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective, With a New Preface

by Ephraim Kam, Thomas C. Schelling (Foreword by)

Overview

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim’s failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasizing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgmental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780674039292
Publisher:	Harvard University Press
Publication date:	07/01/2009
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	304
File size:	814 KB

About the Author

Ephraim Kam is Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Israel.

Table of Contents

Contents Foreword by Thomas C. Schelling Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons Introduction Part I: The Components of Surprise Attack 1. The Essence of Surprise Attack Reaction to Disasters and Warnings Aspects of Erroneous Estimates The Strategic Warning Surprise and Military Preparedness 2. Information and Indicators Quality of Intelligence Information Early Warning Indicators Signal and Noise Quantity of Intelligence Information 3. Intentions and Capabilities Inference and Difficulties in Estimating Intentions The Enemy’s Conceptual Framework Risk Taking by the Enemy Estimating Capabilities Part II: Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis 4. Conceptions and Incoming Information The Set of Conceptions The Persistence of Conceptions Assimilating Information Information and Expectations Treating Discrepant Information Cognitive Biases and Overconfidence Prediction and Intelligence Analysis Stages of Intelligence Analysis Approaches for Generating and Evaluating Hypotheses Analogies and Learning from History Evaluating Incoming Information Choosing among Alternative Hypotheses External Obstacles to Perception Changing a View Part III: The Environment 6. The Analyst and the Small Group The Other Opinion Groupthink Pressures for Conformity The Leader and the Expert Group Risk Taking The Military as an Organization Rivalry, Coordination, and Communication Intrinsic Problems in the Intelligence Organization Military Men and Surprise Attack 8. Intelligence and Decision Makers Decision Makers and Intelligence Production Commitment to a Policy How Decision Makers Affect the Intelligence Process Decision Makers and Surprise Attack The Complexity of the Problem Why Safeguards Usually Fail War without Surprise? Notes Bibliography Index

What People are Saying About This

Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.

Ehud Barak

Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.
— Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel

Editorial Reviews

Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.

Ehud Barak