Standard & Poor's Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis

by Blaise Ganguin, John Bilardello

Overview

An up-to-date, accurate framework for credit analysis and decision making, from the experts at Standard & Poor's

"In a world of increasing financial complexity and shorter time frames in which to assess the wealth or dearth of information, this book provides an invaluable and easily accessible guide of critical building blocks of credit analysis to all credit professionals."
--Apea Koranteng, Global Head, Structured Capital Markets, ABN AMRO

"The authors do a fine job of combining latest credit risk management theory and techniques with real-life examples and practical application. Whether a seasoned credit expert or a new student of credit, this is a must read book . . . a critical part of anyone's risk management library."
--Mark T. Williams, Boston University, Finance and Economics Department

"At a time when credit risk is managed in a way more and more akin to market risk, Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides well-needed support, not only for credit analysts but also for practitioners, portfolio managers, CDO originators, and others who need to keep track of the creditworthiness of their fixed-income investments."
--Alain Canac, Chief Risk Officer, CDC IXIS

Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides professionals with the knowledge they need to systematically determine the operating and financial strength of a specific borrower, understand credit risks inherent in a wide range of corporate debt instruments, and then rank the default risk of that borrower. Focusing on fundamental credit risk, cash flow modeling, debt structure analysis, and other important issues, and including separate chapters on country risks, industry risks, business risks, financial risks, and management, it guides the reader through every step of traditional fundamental credit analysis.

In a dynamic corporate environment, credit analysts cannot rely solely on financial statistical analysis, credit prediction models, or bond and stock price movements. Instead, a corporate credit analysis must supply loan providers and investors with more information and detail than ever before. On top of its traditional objective of assessing a firm's capacity and willingness to pay its financial obligations in a timely manner, a worthy credit analysis is now expected to assess recovery prospects of specific financial obligations should a firm become insolvent.

Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides practitioners with the knowledge and tools they need to address these changing requirements. Drawing on the unmatched global resources and capabilities of Standard & Poor's, this valuable book organizes its guidelines into three distinct components:

• Part I: Corporate Credit Risk helps analysts identify all the essential risks related to a particular firm, and measure the firm through both a financial forecast and benchmarking with peers
• Part II: Credit Risk of Debt Instruments explains the impact of debt instruments and debt structures on a firm's recovery prospects should it become insolvent
• Part III: Measuring Credit Risk presents a scoring system to assess the capacity and willingness of a firm to repay its debt in a timely fashion and to evaluate recovery prospects in the event of financial distress

In addition, a fourth component--Cases in Credit Analysis--examines seven real-life studies to provide examples of the book's theory and procedures in practice. Senior Standard & Poor's analysts explore diverse cases ranging from North and South America to Europe and the Pacific Rim, on topics covering mergers (AT&T-Comcast, MGM-Mirage, Kellogg-Keebler), foreign ownership in a merger (Air New Zealand-Ansett-Singapore Airlines), sovereign issues (Repsol-YPF), peer comparisons (U.S. forestry), and recovery analysis (Yell LBO). Industry "Keys to Success" are identified and analyzed in each case, along with an explanation on how to interpret performance and come to a credit decision.

While it is still true that ultimate credit decisions are highly subjective in nature, methodologies and thought processes can be repeatable from case to case. Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides analysts with the knowledge and tools they need to systematically analyze a company, identify and analyze the most important factors in determining its creditworthiness, and ensure that more "science" than "art" is used in making the final credit decision.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780071454582
Publisher:	McGraw-Hill Education
Publication date:	12/22/2004
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	428
File size:	4 MB

About the Author

Blaise Ganguin is a managing director in Standard & Poor's Corporate & Government Ratings. Ganguin supervises teams of corporate credit analysts in Europe.

John Bilardello is a managing director in Standard & Poor's Corporate & Government Ratings. Bilardello manages S&P's global corporate ratings business.

Standard & Poor's is the world's foremost provider of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research, data and valuations. An essential part of the world's financial infrastructure, Standard & Poor's has played a leading role for more than 140 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions.

Read an Excerpt

FUNDAMENTALS OF CORPORATE CREDIT ANALYSIS

---

By BLAISE GANGUIN, JOHN BILARDELLO

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

Copyright © 2005The McGraw-Hill Companies
All rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-07-145458-2

---

Excerpt

CHAPTER 1

Sovereign and Country Risks

"The reality is that most emerging market corporate defaults are caused by basic country risks."

—Laura Feinland-Katz, Managing Director, Standard & Poor's

Sovereign governments can wield vast powers that shape the financial and operating environments of all corporate entities under their reign. They establish the legal rights of the people, the regulatory framework, and the fundamental rules of engagement for businesses. Of course, that means that a sovereign government can create an environment in which business truly flourishes or an environment that stifles opportunities and success. Yet while the actions and decisions of a national government certainly have a great impact on the business environment, the basic economic and business dynamics that develop within a country are influenced by more than just the government's actions.

In particular, each country has its own unique characteristics that shape the businesses and corporations in that country. This includes its infrastructure, including roads, ports, telecommunications, utilities, buildings, a labor force, an educational system, a legal system, financial markets, and natural resources, and the businesses that develop around that infrastructure.

The combination of these unique characteristics and the government's established business rules influence the country's economic performance and thus the performance of individual companies. Ultimately, the degree of corporate success or failure comes down to how well the available resources are used in conjunction with the governing business regulations. Most of the time, however, this is usually a case of the haves and the have-nots. Well-developed countries generally support business success because they have abundant natural resources, a well-trained or well-educated workforce, strong fiscal and/or monetary policy, a stable currency, a reasonable level of taxes and tariffs, a sophisticated domestic capital market, a strong banking infrastructure, and established businesses supported by an effective infrastructure.

In contrast, "emerging" countries (or lesser-developed countries) stifle business success because neither the business community nor the sovereign government has been able to utilize the nation's assets effectively. In Africa, for instance, many countries have tremendous amounts of natural resources that are valued highly by other countries, such as oil, gold, and diamonds. One could assume that numerous successful businesses would emerge from countries with such resources. Sadly though, in some of these countries, corrupt governments and a poor educational system limit or even prevent business success. As a direct consequence, corporations based in these countries are viewed as being of high risk.

This sovereign risk analysis is not just for entities in emerging countries. In 2003, the World Bank released a survey entitled "Doing Business" that found that the least amount of business regulation fosters the strongest economies. The bank, working with academics, consultants, and law firms, measured the costs of five business development functions in 130 nations. The survey identified how regulations and legal systems affected an entity's ability to register with the sovereign government, to obtain credit, to hire and terminate employees, to enforce contracts, and to utilize the bankruptcy courts. The World Bank determined that the least regulated and most efficient economies were in countries with well-established common law traditions. This includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. In addition, other top-performing economies were several social democracies (Denmark, Norway, and Sweden) that had recently streamlined their business regulations. See Table 1-1 for comparative growth rates of different countries.

Strong credit analysis, therefore, includes evaluating the extent to which corporations are limited or supported by the government's laws and regulations. Importantly, future business success can also be linked to the physical aspects of a country, such as the natural resources, the infrastructure, and the labor pool. This chapter breaks down the analysis into five critical drivers about the country and its sovereign government that influence the business environment. These risk drivers are the sovereign powers, the political and legal risks, the physical and human infrastructure, the financial markets, and the macroeconomic environment.

SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENT POWERS: THEY SET THE GROUND RULES

The financial condition of a sovereign government always affects the way it governs and the laws it creates. Yet not all sovereign governments are the same. There are democracies, dictatorships, and kingdoms, with different histories and with styles of governing that can be and usually are very different. As credit analysts or lenders of credit, though, we care about the main powers every government has under its control that affect the business performance of every company within that government's domain.

The main power is first and foremost the overarching right to create and change business regulations. Next, of course, is the taxing and tariff authority, and last is the ability to enact foreign currency exchange controls. Regardless of the type of government or whether the government is corrupt or upstanding, these are the issues a credit analyst cares about. Why? Simply because these are the key tools a government has that allow it to access money and affect the business environment. But sovereigns use these tools for different reasons and at different times.

Regulatory Framework

A national government can establish business rules that range from invasive to vague, and it's necessary to know the difference and the impact on business. Regulations can cover a very wide range of areas, including export/import restrictions, competition boundaries, service quality guidelines, antitrust legislation, subsidies, and the percentage of local or foreign ownership. Regulations can and do affect individual companies' business strategies. Politics being what it is, analysts should investigate the extent to which any company has influence over the political process, since that could affect the form and content of regulations. Also, analysts should track a government's history of changing the rules. For example, a government could force renegotiation of tax subsidies or royalty arrangements and could change the amount of taxes on imports, exports, or foreign debt. The characteristics of a supportive government differ depending on whether one is analyzing a local or a foreign entity (i.e., the magnitude to which it supports the local entities). Still, a supportive environment would include at least consistent business regulations.

Tariffs

Tariffs, or taxes paid by foreign companies trying to sell their goods in a country, are another way in which a government can extract money from corporations. But tariffs typically have another purpose—to influence the economics of a foreign entity's goods and thereby reduce the demand for those goods, to the obvious benefit of local suppliers.

The most recent example was the tariffs the U.S. government placed on steel imports in the middle of 2002. The impact was to raise the price of foreign steel sold into the United States, allowing the struggling U.S. steelmakers to also raise prices. While this did benefit the U.S. steel companies for about one year, it ultimately did not improve their financial performance enough. In addition, foreign steelmakers effectively rallied their governments' support, and those governments then threatened tariffs on
(Continues...)

---

Excerpted from FUNDAMENTALS OF CORPORATE CREDIT ANALYSIS by BLAISE GANGUIN. Copyright © 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies. Excerpted by permission of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc..
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. solely for the personal use of visitors to this web site.

---

Table of Contents

Contents

Foreword Ed Emmer          

Preface          

Introduction          

PART I CORPORATE CREDIT RISK          

Chapter 1 Sovereign and Country Risks          

Chapter 2 Industry Risks          

Chapter 3 Company-Specific Business Risks          

Chapter 4 The Management Factor          

Chapter 5 Financial Risk Analysis          

Chapter 6 Cash Flow Forecasting and Modeling          

PART II CREDIT RISK OF DEBT INSTRUMENTS          

Chapter 7 Debt Instruments and Documentation          

Chapter 8 Insolvency Regimes and Debt Structures          

Chapter 9 Estimating Recovery Prospects          

PART III MEASURING CREDIT RISK          

Chapter 10 Putting It All Together: Credit Ranking          

Chapter 11 Measuring Credit Risk: Pricing and Credit Risk Management          

PART IV APPENDICES A TO G: CASES IN CREDIT ANALYSIS          

Appendix A AT&T Comcast          

Appendix B The MGM/Mirage Merger          

Appendix C Kellogg's Acquisition of Keebler          

Appendix D Repsol/YPF          

Appendix E Air New Zealand          

Appendix F Peer Comparison: The Three Largest U.S. Forest Products
Companies          

Appendix G Yell Group Ltd. Leveraged Buyout (LBO)          

Index