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Overview
Providing an account of the main issues involved in risk and probability and the ways that these have been applied in practice, the book describes current forensic practice in relation to the dominant algorithmic and checklist-based methods. Critiques of these arising from social-legal, risk analysis and experimental psychology perspectives are summarised, and questions of the accuracy, fairness and lack of analysis are considered, along with the main challenges associated with making group and individual predictions of events. The text rejects the idea that clinical assessments of risk are generally ineffective and stresses the role of environmental context, training and expertise in improving practice. Through the author’s work in the field, this text also offers insight into the ways in which current practice might be improved and calls for greater analysis and methodological rigour.
Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice appeals to a wide range of forensic practitioners including psychologists, psychiatrists, social workers, mental health nurses and lawyers. The text is also relevant to those involved in management and decision-making across forensic settings.
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9780367622534 |
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Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Publication date: | 07/18/2022 |
Series: | New Frontiers in Forensic Psychology |
Pages: | 216 |
Product dimensions: | 6.12(w) x 9.19(h) x (d) |
About the Author
Table of Contents
Series Foreword xi
Acknowledgements xiii
Disclosure xiii
Introduction 1
1 Key Issues in Risk 4
Risk and Uncertainty 4
Probability 8
Measuring Probability 9
The Principle of indifference 11
Types of Probability 12
Relative Frequency Probability 12
Knowledge-Based Probability 13
Problems with Knowledge-Based Probability 16
Applying Probability 16
Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 16
Conclusion 17
2 The Language of Risk 19
Risk Assessment 22
Risk Treatment 23
Dose Response 24
Risk Management 25
Cautionary and Precautionary Principles 26
Robustness and Resilience 27
Risk and Protective Factors 27
Conclusion 30
3 Current Practice in Risk: Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches 31
Use of Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches in Practice 34
Policing 34
Sentencing and Conditional Release 35
Risk Treatment 37
The Case for Using Actuarial and Algorithmic RAIs 40
Conclusion 42
4 Current Practice in Risk: Structured Clinical Judgement Approaches 43
Use in Practice 47
Policing 47
Sentencing and Conditional Release 51
Risk Treatment 52
The Case for Using Checklist RAIs 54
Conclusion 55
5 Critiques of Current Practice: Socio-Legal Perspectives 56
Fairness 58
Accuracy 67
Individual and Group-Based Predictions 70
Impact 77
Conclusion 78
6 Critiques of Current Practice: Risk Analysis Perspectives 80
Risk Management 85
Risk Analysis 87
Measuring Risk 88
Simplified Qualitative Analysis 90
Standard Qualitative and/or Quantitative Analysis 90
Model-Based and Primarily Quantitative Methods 92
Treating Risk as an Expected Value 93
Criticisms of Using Relative Frequency Probability 95
Criticisms of Using Knowledge-Based Probability 97
Syntactic Criterion 99
Pragmatic Criteria 99
Calibration 99
Treating Risk as a Product of History 100
Standardisation and Consensus 103
Using Models 104
Conclusion 104
7 Critiques of Current Practice: Psychological Perspectives 106
Unbounded Rationality 108
Optimisation Under Constraints 108
Cognitive illusions 109
Ecological Rationality 110
Biases Associated with Cognitive Illusions 110
Representativeness 110
Availability 111
Anchoring and Adjustment 111
Affect 112
Heuristics and Judgement 112
Critiques of Cognitive Illusions Research 115
Some Problems while Using Content-Blind Norms 118
Studies of Heuristics 123
Are Cognitive Illusions and Ecological Rationality Essentially Similar? 124
The Adaptive Toolbox 125
Conclusion 128
8 Dealing with Risk Better: Analysis and Treatment of Risks 129
The Scale of the Problem 130
Analysing Risks 132
Barriers to Change 134
Doing Better 138
Risk Analysis: Planning 139
Risk Analysis: Methods 140
Cause and Effect Analysis (CEA) or Ishikawa Diagrams 143
Structured What If Technique (SWIFT) 143
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 144
Event Tree Analyses (ETA) 144
Bayesian Networks 145
Risk Analysis: Probabilistic Assessment 146
Risk Evaluation 148
Risk Treatment 149
Risk Management 151
Conclusion 152
9 Dealing with Risk Better: Probabilistic Risk Assessment 153
Changing Practice 156
How to Develop More Accurate Assessments 158
The MacArthur Study 159
Conclusion 163
10 Dealing with Risk Better: Changing the Environment 165
Getting Rid of the 'Cargo Cult' Science 167
Changing Environments to Make Better Decisions 169
The Attractions of Simplicity 176
Conclusion 177
References 181
Index 197