Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice

by David Crighton

Overview

Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice sets out a concise critical review of the way in which risk is assessed in current forensic practice. Setting the area in its historical context, this text outlines current practice in an accessible and clear format and discusses major critiques as well as the ways in which current practice might be developed to improve public protection.

Providing an account of the main issues involved in risk and probability and the ways that these have been applied in practice, the book describes current forensic practice in relation to the dominant algorithmic and checklist-based methods. Critiques of these arising from social-legal, risk analysis and experimental psychology perspectives are summarised, and questions of the accuracy, fairness and lack of analysis are considered, along with the main challenges associated with making group and individual predictions of events. The text rejects the idea that clinical assessments of risk are generally ineffective and stresses the role of environmental context, training and expertise in improving practice. Through the author’s work in the field, this text also offers insight into the ways in which current practice might be improved and calls for greater analysis and methodological rigour.

Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice appeals to a wide range of forensic practitioners including psychologists, psychiatrists, social workers, mental health nurses and lawyers. The text is also relevant to those involved in management and decision-making across forensic settings.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780367622534
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis
Publication date:	07/18/2022
Series:	New Frontiers in Forensic Psychology
Pages:	216
Product dimensions:	6.12(w) x 9.19(h) x (d)

About the Author

David Crighton is a Consultant Psychologist and Visiting Professor of Forensic Psychology at Durham University, UK. He was previously Acting Chief/Deputy Chief Psychologist at the Ministry of Justice, UK.

Table of Contents

Series Foreword xi

Acknowledgements xiii

Disclosure xiii

Introduction 1

1 Key Issues in Risk 4

Risk and Uncertainty 4

Probability 8

Measuring Probability 9

The Principle of indifference 11

Types of Probability 12

Relative Frequency Probability 12

Knowledge-Based Probability 13

Problems with Knowledge-Based Probability 16

Applying Probability 16

Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 16

Conclusion 17

2 The Language of Risk 19

Risk Assessment 22

Risk Treatment 23

Dose Response 24

Risk Management 25

Cautionary and Precautionary Principles 26

Robustness and Resilience 27

Risk and Protective Factors 27

Conclusion 30

3 Current Practice in Risk: Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches 31

Use of Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches in Practice 34

Policing 34

Sentencing and Conditional Release 35

Risk Treatment 37

The Case for Using Actuarial and Algorithmic RAIs 40

Conclusion 42

4 Current Practice in Risk: Structured Clinical Judgement Approaches 43

Use in Practice 47

Policing 47

Sentencing and Conditional Release 51

Risk Treatment 52

The Case for Using Checklist RAIs 54

Conclusion 55

5 Critiques of Current Practice: Socio-Legal Perspectives 56

Fairness 58

Accuracy 67

Individual and Group-Based Predictions 70

Impact 77

Conclusion 78

6 Critiques of Current Practice: Risk Analysis Perspectives 80

Risk Management 85

Risk Analysis 87

Measuring Risk 88

Simplified Qualitative Analysis 90

Standard Qualitative and/or Quantitative Analysis 90

Model-Based and Primarily Quantitative Methods 92

Treating Risk as an Expected Value 93

Criticisms of Using Relative Frequency Probability 95

Criticisms of Using Knowledge-Based Probability 97

Syntactic Criterion 99

Pragmatic Criteria 99

Calibration 99

Treating Risk as a Product of History 100

Standardisation and Consensus 103

Using Models 104

Conclusion 104

7 Critiques of Current Practice: Psychological Perspectives 106

Unbounded Rationality 108

Optimisation Under Constraints 108

Cognitive illusions 109

Ecological Rationality 110

Biases Associated with Cognitive Illusions 110

Representativeness 110

Availability 111

Anchoring and Adjustment 111

Affect 112

Heuristics and Judgement 112

Critiques of Cognitive Illusions Research 115

Some Problems while Using Content-Blind Norms 118

Studies of Heuristics 123

Are Cognitive Illusions and Ecological Rationality Essentially Similar? 124

The Adaptive Toolbox 125

Conclusion 128

8 Dealing with Risk Better: Analysis and Treatment of Risks 129

The Scale of the Problem 130

Analysing Risks 132

Barriers to Change 134

Doing Better 138

Risk Analysis: Planning 139

Risk Analysis: Methods 140

Cause and Effect Analysis (CEA) or Ishikawa Diagrams 143

Structured What If Technique (SWIFT) 143

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 144

Event Tree Analyses (ETA) 144

Bayesian Networks 145

Risk Analysis: Probabilistic Assessment 146

Risk Evaluation 148

Risk Treatment 149

Risk Management 151

Conclusion 152

9 Dealing with Risk Better: Probabilistic Risk Assessment 153

Changing Practice 156

How to Develop More Accurate Assessments 158

The MacArthur Study 159

Conclusion 163

10 Dealing with Risk Better: Changing the Environment 165

Getting Rid of the 'Cargo Cult' Science 167

Changing Environments to Make Better Decisions 169

The Attractions of Simplicity 176

Conclusion 177

References 181

Index 197

Editorial Reviews

"Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice is an astonishing accomplishment. David Crighton provides a trenchant and sweeping analysis of cutting-edge research on the prediction and management of violent behavior. Historically grounded and written in clear, jargon-free prose, this work is sure to have an immense and long-lasting impact on the field."

John Monahan, PhD, John S. Shannon Distinguished Professor of Law, Professor of Psychology, University of Virginia, USA

"David Crighton has done the field a great service in writing this book. He provides an analysis of contemporary forensic practice that is both thoughtful and balanced and which invites the reader to engage with foundational knowledge about the history, meaning, and nature of risk. David then, rather gently it should be said, draws our attention to the problems that will inevitably surface if we continue to simply follow convention, before offering some concrete suggestions for strengthening and advancing practice. Whilst this is both an easy and engaging read, David challenges us all to do much better. Please take the time to read this important contribution!"

Professor Andrew Day, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia.

"This book is an articulate and authoritative examination of risk assessment in forensic practice. An in-depth exploration of both current and historic issues in theory and practice that will be a catalyst for much needed discussion and reform. An invaluable and accessible resource for forensic psychologists and other scholars, front-line practitioners and policy makers."

Dr Roxanne Khan, Director of Honour Abuse Research Matrix (HARM), University of Central Lancashire, UK.

"Based on the fundamental but often ignored distinction between risk and uncertainty, this comprehensive and easy-to-read book provides an excellent introduction to risk assessment, its tools, and its future. It is essential for forensic practice, but also for a better understanding of human judgment, the nature of probability, and the nature of rationality."

Gerd Gigerenzer, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin

"This is an important and timely contribution to the discussion of risk within forensic psychology which examines many of the false assumptions that are often made about the predictive capabilities associated with a range of calculative practices within risk analysis for human subjects. The book should be required reading for practitioners in forensic and clinical psychology as well as students involved in a diverse set of areas within psychology practice and social care."

Denis Fischbacher-Smith, Research Professor of Risk and Resilience, University of Glasgow

From the Publisher