Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions
224Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions
224Hardcover(New Edition)
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Overview
Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude.
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9780674066892 |
---|---|
Publisher: | Harvard University Press |
Publication date: | 02/18/2013 |
Edition description: | New Edition |
Pages: | 224 |
Sales rank: | 834,367 |
Product dimensions: | 6.30(w) x 9.30(h) x 0.90(d) |
About the Author
Table of Contents
Preface xiii
Introduction 1
Rumsfeld and the Limits to Knowledge 1
Using Policy Analysis to Inform Decisions 2
Organization of the Book 4
I Policy Analysis
1 Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude 11
1.1 The Logic and Credibility of Policy Analysis 11
1.2 Incentives for Certitude 13
Support for Certitude in Philosophy of Science
1.3 Conventional Certitudes 15
CBO Scoring of Pending Legislation
Scoring the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010; Credible Interval Scoring; Can Congress Cope with Uncertainty?
British Norms
1.4 Dueling Certitudes 23
The RAND and IDA Reports on Illegal Drug Policy
The National Research Council Assessment
1.5 Conflating Science and Advocacy 27
Friedman and Educational Vouchers
1.6 Wishful Extrapolation 30
Selective Incapacitation
Extrapolation from Randomized Experiments: The FDA Drug Approval Process
The Study Population and the Population of Interest
The Experimental Treatments and the Treatments of Interest
The Outcomes Measured in Experiments and the Outcomes of Interest
The FDA and Conventional Certitude
Campbell and the Primacy of Internal Validity
1.7 Illogical Certitude 37
Heritability
What Does "More Important" Mean?
Heritability and Social Policy
Gene Measurement
1.8 Media Overreach 44
"The Case for $320,000 Kindergarten Teachers" Peer Review and Credible Reporting
2 Predicting Policy Outcomes 47
2.1 Deterrence and the Death Penalty 48
Estimates Using Data on Homicide Rates across States and Years
2.2 Analysis of Treatment Response 51
Statistical Inference and Identification
2.3 Predicting Outcomes under Policies That Mandate a Treatment 53
Sentencing and Recidivism
Background
Our Analysis
Analysis Assuming Individualistic Treatment Response
Numerical Findings
Choosing a Policy
2.4 Identical Treatment Units 59
Before-and-After Studies
Difference-in-Differences Studies
Employment in Fast-Food Restaurants and the Minimum Wage
2.5 Identical Treatment Groups 63
Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments
The "Gold Standard"
2.6 Randomized Experiments in Practice 67
Extrapolation
Compliance
The Illinois Unemployment Insurance Experiment
Random Compliance
Intention-to-Treat
The Mixing Problem
Extrapolation from the Perry Preschool Project
Social Interactions
Local and Global Interactions
Credible Analysis of Experimental Data
2.7 Random Treatment Choice in Observational Studies 77
Rational Treatment Choice and Selection Bias
Outcome Optimization with Perfect Foresight
Regression Discontinuity Analysis
2.8 Modeling Rational Treatment Choice 81
Outcome Optimization as a Model of Sentencing Distributional Assumptions
3 Predicting Behavior 85
3.1 Income Taxation and Labor Supply 86
The Theory of Labor Supply
Empirical Analysis
Basic Revealed-Preference Analysis
Illustration: Labor Supply under Progressive and Proportional Taxes
3.2 Discrete Choice Analysis 93
Random Utility Model Representation of Behavior
Attribute Representation of Alternatives and Decision Makers
Analysis with Incomplete Attribute Data
Practicality
College Choice in America
Predicting the Enrollment Effects of Student Aid Policy
Power and Price of the Analysis
Discrete Choice Analysis Today
3.3 Predicting Behavior under Uncertainty 99
How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?
How Do Potential Criminals Perceive Sanctions Regimes?
Measuring Expectations
Pill, Patch, or Shot?
3.4 Perspectives on Rational Choice 102
As-If Rationality
Bounded Rationality
Biases and Heuristics
Widespread Irrationality or Occasional Cognitive Illusions?
The Common Thread Is Certitude
II Policy Decisions
4 Planning with Partial Knowledge 115
4.1 Treating X-Pox 116
4.2 Elements of Decision Theory 116
States of Nature
The Welfare Function
Welfare Functions in Studies of Optimal Income Taxation
The Mirrlees Study
4.3 Decision Criteria 121
Elimination of Dominated Actions
Weighting States and the Expected Welfare Criterion
Criteria for Decision Making under Ambiguity
Maximin
Minimax Regret
Using Different Criteria to Treat X-Pox
4.4 Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence 125
4.5 Vaccination with Partial Knowledge of Effectiveness 127
Background
Internal and External Effectiveness
The Planning Problem
Partial Knowledge of External Effectiveness
Choosing a Vaccination Rate
4.6 Rational and Reasonable Decision Making 131
The Savage Argument for Consistency
Axiomatic Rationality and Actualist Rationality
Axiomatic and Actualist Perspectives on Subjective Probability
Ellsberg on Ambiguity
The Quest for Rationality and the Search for Certitude
5 Diversified Treatment Choice 139
Diversification and Profiling
5.1 Allocating a Population to Two Treatments 141
The Welfare Function
A Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation
Expected Welfare
Maximin
Minimax Regret
Choosing Sentences for Convicted Juvenile Offenders
Allocation of Wealth to a Safe and Risky Investment
Risk-Averse Planning
5.2 Diversification and Equal Treatment of Equals 148
Ex Ante and Ex Post Equal Treatment
Combining Consequentialism and Deontological Ethics
5.3 Adaptive Diversification 150
Adaptive Minimax Regret
Implementation in Centralized Health Care Systems
The AMR Criterion and the Practice of Randomized Clinical Trials
Fraction of the Population Receiving the Innovation
Group Subject to Randomization
Measurement of Outcomes
5.4 Diversification across Time or Space 154
Diversification by Cohort
Laboratories of Democracy
5.5 Adaptive Partial Drug Approval 156
The Present Approval Process
Binary versus Partial Approval
Adaptive Partial Licensing
5.6 Collective Decision Processes 160
Majority-Rule Voting with Single-Peaked Preferences
The Credibility of Single-Peaked Preferences
Strategic Interactions
Learning and Heterogeneity of Policy Preferences
Bilateral Negotiations
Pareto Optimal Allocations
Incentive-Compatible Processes
Teacher Evaluation in New York City
5.7 Laissez-Faire 169
Social Learning from Private Experiences
Laissez-Faire Learning and Adaptive Diversification
6 Policy Analysis and Decisions 173
Institutional Separation of Analysis and Decisions
Doing Better
Appendix A Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox 177
Appendix B The Minimax-Regret Allocation to a Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation 179
Appendix C Treatment Choice with Partial Knowledge of Response to Both Treatments 181
References 183
Index 193