Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House

by Allan J. Lichtman

Overview

In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781442269200
Publisher:	Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
Publication date:	05/02/2016
Edition description:	2016
Pages:	240
Product dimensions:	5.90(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.80(d)

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman teaches history at American University in Washington, D.C. He is a regular political analyst for CNN Headline News and also provides political commentary for national networks and newspapers. He is the author of White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement. He has published more than one hundred scholarly and popular articles that have appeared in such journals and newspapers as the American Historical Review, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, New Republic, Washington Monthly, New York Times, Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, and Los Angeles Times.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Logic of the Keys: How Presidential Elections Really Work Chapter 2: Turning the Keys to the Presidency Chapter 3: Civil War and Reconstruction Chapter 4: The Gilded Age Chapter 5: Rise and Fall of Progressivism Chapter 6: Depression, War, and Cold War Chapter 7: New Directions, War, and Scandal Chapter 8: The Reagan and Beyond Chapter 9: A False Dawn for Democrats: 1996-2004 Chapter 10: The Winds of Political Change: 2008 Chapter 11: Stability in the White House 2012 Chapter 12: The Obama Legacy Repudiated: Where the Keys Stand for 2020 Chapter 13: Lessons of the Keys: Toward a New Presidential Politics

Editorial Reviews

07/04/2016
With this book’s tantalizing chapter 1 subhead, “How Presidential Elections Really Work,” readers may be moved to grab it off the shelf and get a jump on 2016’s presidential election results. And it’s true, committed political enthusiasts will be rewarded with juicy inside election tales from political analyst Lichtman (White Protestant Nation). The casual reader’s eyes, however, may glaze over upon encountering statistical charts. Anyone looking for the inside track in Vegas betting isn’t going to find a sure thing here, but curious and persevering readers will gain an abundance of new information and insight into the process of election decision-making. Using 13 “keys” that measure the incumbent administration’s performance, Lichtman has devised a diagnostic prediction system for U.S. presidential races. He introduces the system—“the keys to the White House”—in the book’s first few pages. In the balance of the book he uses election result specifics, from 1860 to the present day, to illustrate the keys and their outcomes. In the book’s concluding pages, Lichtman provides insight into this year’s election and offers some advice for Obama’s contribution to the Democratic campaign, capping off a timely and rewarding read. (Oct.)

Publishers Weekly

An important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does.

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.

This intriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods.

From the Publisher

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.

Roll Call

An important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does.

Charlie Cook