Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow's Terrorists

by Audrey Kurth Cronin

Overview

Essential reading on how technology empowers rogue actors and how society can adapt. Never have so many possessed the means to be so lethal. A dramatic shift from 20th century "closed" military innovation to "open" innovation driven by commercial processes is underway. The diffusion of modern technology--robotics, cyber weapons, 3-D printing, synthetic biology, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence--to ordinary people has given them access to weapons of mass violence previously monopolized by the state. As Audrey Kurth Cronin explains in Power to the People, what we are seeing now is the continuation of an age-old trend. Over the centuries, from the invention of dynamite to the release of the AK-47, many of the most surprising developments in warfare have occurred because of technological advances combined with changes in who can use them. That shifting social context illuminates our current situation, in which new "open" technologies are reshaping the future of war. Cronin explains why certain lethal technologies spread, which ones to focus on, and how individuals and private groups will adapt lethal off-the-shelf technologies for malevolent ends. Now in paperback with a foreword by Lawrence Freedman and a new epilogue, Power to the People focuses on how to both preserve the promise of emerging technologies and reduce risks. Power is flowing to the people, but the same digital technologies that empower can imperil global security--unless we act strategically.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780190882167
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
Publication date:	10/01/2019
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	352
File size:	7 MB

About the Author

Audrey Kurth Cronin is one of the world's leading experts on security and terrorism, with high-level experience in public service and academia. She is currently Distinguished Professor of International Security and founding Director of the Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology at American University.

Table of Contents

Foreword by Lawrence Freedman Introduction: The Age of Lethal Empowerment PART ONE: THEORY Chapter 1: Classic Models of Military Innovation: Shaped by the Nuclear Revolution Introduction The Historical Relationship between War and Technology Innovation is Double-Edged The Social Nature of Diffusion Technology is Not Strategy Historical Context Matters Opening Pandora's Box Chapter 2: The Arsenal for Anarchy: When and How Violent Individuals and Groups Innovate Introduction The Historical Relationship between Political Violence and Technology How Technologies Were Harnessed How Lethal Nonstate Actors Innovate Everett Rogers' Theory of Commercial Diffusion Revisited PART TWO: HISTORY Chapter 3: Dynamite and the Birth of Modern Terrorism Introduction The Advent of Gunpowder Early Explosive Violence from Below Gunpowder Helps Build the Modern World Alfred Nobel's Vision Dynamite Becomes the People's Weapon The Narodnaya Volya and the Killing of the Tsar The Skirmishers and Clan na Gael The International Anarchist Movement Why Dynamite Diffused Chapter 4: How Dynamite Diffused Introduction Innovation Was Not Driven by the Military The Global Production of Dynamite Growth Despite Danger Inexorable Downward Pressure on Price The Stoking of Discontent The International Anarchist Convention of 1881 and 'Propaganda of the Deed' Dynamite Schools and Pamphlets Anarchist Newspapers and Periodicals Worldwide Mass Market Sensationalism Patterns in Numbers of Attacks How Global Dynamitings Ended Nobel's Remorse Chapter 5: The Kalashnikov and the Global Wave of Insurgencies Introduction The Evolution of Firearms and the Introduction of the Machine Gun Kalashnikov's Invention of the AK-47 Why the AK-47 Was so Widely Adopted A Humble, Yet Disruptive Innovation Chapter 6: How the Kalashnikov Diffused The Kalashnikov's Debut and Public Demonstration Trading in Kalashnikovs The Diffusion of Kalashnikovs A Proliferation of Factories The Revolutionary's Weapon of Choice Back to the USA The Impact on the Power of States Why the Kalashnikov Spread The Floodgates Opened Kalashnikov's Regret The Power of Unintended Consequences PART THREE: CONVERGENCE: WIDESPREAD LETHAL EMPOWERMENT Chapter 7: Open Innovation of Mobilization: Social Media and Conquering Digital Terrain Introduction The New Nature of Mobilization New Tools for Old Tactics New Tools Used in New Ways Boundless Interactivity Mobile Streaming Videos and Live-streaming Quality First-Person Filmmaking Technology Viral Fake News End-to-End Encryption Hijacking Psychological Tactics Unintended Consequences Redux Chapter 8: Open Innovation of Reach: From AK-47s to Drones, Robots, Smartphones, and 3-D Printing Introduction Convergent Technologies and Extended Reach The Scope of Unmanned Systems How Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Extend Private Reach Predators, Reapers, Global Hawk: Sustaining Technologies The Pattern of State-to-State Proliferation of UAVs State-to-Group Proliferation of UAVs: Hezbollah and Hamas These Are Not the Drones You're Looking For Terrorist and Insurgent Groups' Lethal UAV Programs Crowd-funded, "Grey Zone," and Private UAV Intelligence Advances in the Works Drones as Missiles Democratized Precision Strike Capability Everyone Manufactures Everything with 3D Printing Individual Flying Devices Lagging Countermeasures Chapter 9: An Army of One Launches Many: Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence Introduction A Spectrum of Autonomy The Perils of Full Artificial Intelligence The Predictions of Lethal Empowerment Theory Autonomous Reach Self-driving Truck Bombs Hijacking the Internet of Things Autonomous Swarms Small Autonomous Killer Robots Tailored for Terrorism Conclusion: Strategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment Powerful Economic Incentives for Diffusion Technological Optimism and a Boom in Tinkering New Communications Technologies Are Powerful Incentives to Violence Militaries Are Facing the Innovator's Dilemma Disruptive Private Armies: The ISIS Precedent Responding to the Threat The Profit Motive for Protections Regulation Is Not Necessarily Strangulation Building Up National Security Strategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment Epilogue

Editorial Reviews

A Foreign Affairs Best Book of 2019

"Rather than broadly faulting emergent lethal technologies, [Cronin] makes a very focused and compelling case for attending to the threats posed by open-source 'off-the-shelf' technologies that are affordable and easily operated, and are easily weaponized (3D-printed guns and the arming of inexpensive hobby drones are two relevant examples)... Cronin invites readers to consider specific case studies in which similar emergence, diffusion, and affordability of lethal technology fomented and enabled unanticipated terrorist activity." — Science

"Power to the People is an extraordinary achievement due to impeccable research and the author's exceptional wisdom. It must be read widely to help generate common understanding of the dangers we face and the actions we must take to maximize the promise of emerging technologies while protecting our citizens and safeguarding our societies." - H.R. McMaster, former United States National Security Advisor and author of Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies that Led to Vietnam

"From dynamite to drones, Audrey Kurth Cronin provides a much-needed reassessment of how non-state actors adopt technology for violence. Weaving together technology, history, sociology, and organizational theory, Power to the People is a must-read for those looking to understand the democratization of destruction and how to respond." - Paul Scharre, Senior Fellow and Director of the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security and author of Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War

"Power to the People is a must-read for those seeking to understand how new technologies and innovation can change society, the nature of conflict, and our world. With compelling historical research and incisive analysis, Audrey Kurth Cronin gives us invaluable insights into how new technologies are transforming the security landscape and pragmatic recommendations on what we need to do in response." - Michèle Flournoy, CEO, WestExec Advisors and former United States Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

"In this meticulously researched book, Cronin shows how groups such as the Islamic State (or isis) exploit new technologies such as the Internet, smartphones, autonomous vehicles, and artificial intelligence. Cronin hardly wants innovation to stop just because of potentially malign applications. Instead, she argues that governments must develop countermeasures to preempt militants from co-opting innovations to catastrophic effect." - Foreign Affairs

From the Publisher