Plant Biosecurity Policy Evaluation: The Economic Impacts Of Pests And Diseases

by David Charles Cook, Robert Fraser, Andrew Wilby

Overview

Good biosecurity policy decisions, particularly in relation to plant industry protection, are of ever increasing importance. Growth in the speed and diversity of trade, the effects of climate change and the resultant spread of pests and diseases continue to highlight this. This book contains an introduction to the issues confronting plant biosecurity policymakers and how the economic risks of invasive species can be assessed over time. It describes both probability models that show what might happen if species 'invade' a region and values models that help decide what management actions should be taken.As the first book of its kind focusing on a comprehensive range of policies, case studies and applications, Plant Biosecurity Policy Evaluation is perfect for biosecurity policy makers, decision-support specialists, advanced students of agricultural studies, public policy and invasive species research.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781786342157
Publisher:	World Scientific Publishing Europe Ltd
Publication date:	05/08/2017
Pages:	248
Product dimensions:	6.30(w) x 9.10(h) x 0.90(d)

Table of Contents

Foreword vii

About the Authors xi

Acknowledgements xv

Chapter 1 Background and Objectives 1

1.1 Analysing Invasive Alien Species (IAS) Risk 1

1.2 Agricultural vs. Environmental Systems: Regulatory Policy on IAS Externalities 6

1.3 Objectives of the Book 9

Chapter 2 An Ecological Model for Plant Pest and Disease Outbreaks 11

2.1 Introduction 11

2.2 A Generic Spread Model 12

2.3 Behaviour and Validity of the Biological Spread Model 17

2.3.1 Patterns of IAS introduction and establishment 17

2.3.2 Validity of the spread model 17

2.4 Observed Dynamics of IAS Spread 19

2.5 Origins and Drivers of IAS Risks 23

2.6 Nature and Impact of IAS 26

2.7 Conclusion 27

Chapter 3 A Bioeconomic Model for Analysing IAS Impacts 29

3.1 Introduction 29

3.2 Conceptual Model 29

3.2.1 Specification 29

3.2.2 An importing host industry 35

3.2.3 An exporting host industry 39

3.2.4 Monopolistic competition 41

3.3 A Dynamic Model 44

3.3.1 Relating supply curve shifts to uncertain biological processes 44

3.3.2 A suggested approach 45

3.4 Uncertainty and Model Parameterisation 52

3.5 Conclusion 54

Chapter 4 Case Studies of IAS Affecting Plant Industries 55

4.1 Introduction 55

4.2 Terrestrial Invertebrates 58

4.2.1 Outline 58

4.2.2 Cabbage seedpod weevil (Ceutorhynchus assimilis) 58

4.2.3 Khapra beetle (Trogoderma granarium) 63

4.2.4 Wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus Norton) 66

4.2.5 Summary - terrestrial invertebrates 71

4.3 Plant Pathogens 71

4.3.1 Outline 71

4.3.2 Wheat stem rust, Ug99 (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) 72

4.3.3 Barley stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. hordei) 76

4.3.4 Karnal bunt (Tilletia indica) 80

4.3.5 Summary - plant pathogens 84

4.4 Vertebrates 84

4.4.1 Outline 84

4.4.2 Wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) 85

4.4.3 European starling (Sturnus vulgaris) 93

4.4.4 Rainbow lorikeet (Trichoglossus haematodus) 95

4.4.5 Summary - vertebrates 100

4.5 Terrestrial Plants 103

4.5.1 Outline 103

4.5.2 Gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus) 104

4.5.3 Rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora) 108

4.5.4 Three-horned bedstraw (Galium tricornutum Dandy) 113

4.5.5 Summary - terrestrial plants 118

4.6 Conclusion 118

Chapter 5 Varying Patterns of Impact Over Time: The Choice of Time Horizon 121

5.1 Introduction 121

5.2 Comparing Patterns of Impact Over Time 122

5.2.1 Constant marginal cost over time 122

5.2.2 Diminishing marginal cost over time 124

5.2.3 Increasing marginal cost over time 125

5.3 Cross-over Effects and Uncertainty 126

5.4 Conclusion 129

Chapter 6 Prevention VS. Eradication 131

6.1 Introduction 131

6.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis 132

6.3 Prevention 136

6.4 Eradication 140

6.4.1 Static 140

6.4.2 Dynamic 143

6.5 Evaluating Prevention vs. Eradication Policy Options 150

6.6 Conclusion 154

Chapter 7 Dealing with Non-Monetised Environmental and Social Impacts 157

7.1 Introduction 157

7.2 Problems Encountered When Using Traditional Cost-Benefit Analyses 158

7.2.1 Coverage and consistency 158

7.2.2 Uncertainty 160

7.2.3 Valuation 162

7.3 Facilitating IAS Policy Decisions Involving Market and Non-Market Effects 166

7.3.1 Deliberative multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) 166

7.3.2 Key steps in deliberative MCDA 167

7.3.3 Case study - invertebrate response policy prioritisation 171

7.3.4 Issues with MCDA 187

7.3.5 Conclusions regarding deliberative MCDA from the case study 188

7.4 Conclusion 189

Chapter 8 So Far, So Good … So What? 191

8.1 Introduction 191

8.2 How Can Decision Makers Use This Book to Facilitate IAS Policy Decisions? 192

8.3 How Do Our Methods Help Policymakers Choose Between Eradication and Prevention Activities? 195

8.4 How Might Decision Support Tools and Methods Change in the Future? 199

8.5 Conclusion 201

References 203

Index 221