Other Pasts, Different Presents, Alternative Futures

by Jeremy Black

Overview

What if there had been no World War I or no Russian Revolution? What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo in 1815, or if Martin Luther had not nailed his complaints to the church door at Wittenberg in 1517, or if the South had won the American Civil War? The questioning of apparent certainties or "known knowns" can be fascinating and, indeed, "What if?" books are very popular. However, this speculative approach, known as counterfactualism, has had limited impact in academic histories, historiography, and the teaching of historical methods. In this book, Jeremy Black offers a short guide to the subject, one that is designed to argue its value as a tool for public and academe alike. Black focuses on the role of counterfactualism in demonstrating the part of contingency, and thus human agency, in history, and the salutary critique the approach offers to determinist accounts of past, present, and future.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780253017048
Publisher:	Indiana University Press
Publication date:	08/03/2015
Pages:	252
Product dimensions:	5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.70(d)
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

Jeremy Black is Professor of History at the University of Exeter. He is author of many books including War and Technology (IUP, 2013), Fighting for America: The Struggle for Mastery in North America, 1519–1871 (IUP, 2011), and War and the Cultural Turn. Black is a recipient of the Samuel Eliot Morison Prize of the Society for Military History.

Table of Contents

Preface
1. Introduction
2. A Personal Note on Life and Times
3. Types of History
4. Power and the Struggle for Imperial Mastery
5. The West and the Rest
6. Britain and France, 1688-1815
7. Counterfactualism in Military History
8. Into the Future
9. Skepticism and the Historian
10. Conclusions
11. Postscript
Selected Further Reading
Index

What People are Saying About This

"A wide-ranging and lively commentary on the utility (and limits) of examining what did not happen in the past as a way to make sense of what did... Black makes a powerful case for the analytical value of counterfactualism in the explanation of structural questions, in particular how the modern world system took the shape it did, does, and might in the future. Other Pasts represents the kind of wide and up-to-date synthesis that is a hallmark of Black's scholarship."

Dennis Showalter

A concise, comprehensive analysis of an approach to history that is far more complex than either its supporters or its critics understand. Black succeeds above all in establishing counterfactualism's importance in extending the grounded imagination. And that is increasingly important in an era when on the one hand scholars are increasingly obsessed with digging postholes and protecting turf, and on the other, pundits and politicians rejoice in detaching their speculations from any and all connection with the past. . . . The reference apparatus by itself is worth the price of the book [and] I appreciate as well the global approach. . . . The question 'why?', basic to history, cannot be adequately addressed without at least evaluating untaken roads.

John Brobst

A wide-ranging and lively commentary on the utility (and limits) of examining what did not happen in the past as a way to make sense of what did... Black makes a powerful case for the analytical value of counterfactualism in the explanation of structural questions, in particular how the modern world system took the shape it did, does, and might in the future. Other Pasts represents the kind of wide and up-to-date synthesis that is a hallmark of Black's scholarship.

John Brobst]]>

A wide-ranging and lively commentary on the utility (and limits) of examining what did not happen in the past as a way to make sense of what did... Black makes a powerful case for the analytical value of counterfactualism in the explanation of structural questions, in particular how the modern world system took the shape it did, does, and might in the future. Other Pasts represents the kind of wide and up-to-date synthesis that is a hallmark of Black's scholarship.

Dennis Showalter]]>

A concise, comprehensive analysis of an approach to history that is far more complex than either its supporters or its critics understand. Black succeeds above all in establishing counterfactualism's importance in extending the grounded imagination. And that is increasingly important in an era when on the one hand scholars are increasingly obsessed with digging postholes and protecting turf, and on the other, pundits and politicians rejoice in detaching their speculations from any and all connection with the past. . . . The reference apparatus by itself is worth the price of the book [and] I appreciate as well the global approach. . . . The question 'why?', basic to history, cannot be adequately addressed without at least evaluating untaken roads.

Editorial Reviews

★ 05/25/2015
Black (War and Technology), an experienced military historian at the University of Exeter, U.K., contributes a spirited entry to the increasingly productive conversation over the scholarly and political value of what-ifs—explorations of what might have happened instead of what did. This is the most robust defense of historical counterfactuals to date, and should be read in concert with Richard J. Evans’s Altered Pasts, a criticism of the genre. Black goes so far as to accuse historians of being ahistorical in avoiding what-if arguments. Despite somewhat herky-jerky prose, the book digs deeply into the complexities of what-ifs and, in Black’s view, their abundant utility—to say nothing of their being natural to every thinking being and intrinsic to all argument. Black is at his best when analyzing counterfactual takes on war, diplomacy, and grand policy, even with their limitations. For instance, he argues, they’re critical to military planning, for they permit “the imagining of alternate realities or possibilities as a learning tool for strategic thinking.” His chapter on counterfactual thinking about the future is unique in the literature. For those interested in this fascinating subject, Black’s book is indispensable. (Aug.)

Publishers Weekly

"A sparkling defense of the legitimacy and utility of counterfactual history—of what ifs—and the best single work on its subject available."—Weekly Standard

"Professor Black shows, in this intriguing book, exactly why the examination of different potential outcomes can aid historical understanding. He pinpoints how the expectation of events, even when unrealised, can determine human actions and affect perceptions of both past and future. Black demonstrates that, in skilful hands, counterfactual history is more than just fun; as one ingredient among many, it can be an extremely fertile source of explanation."—History Today

"With a unique methodology, Black performs a what-if analysis of history to show how little it takes to change the world's fate. . .This book provokes thought and speculation while also entertaining."—Foreword Reviews

"[Black's] illustrative examples of 'what if,' 'how,' and 'why' will make readers sit back and wonder."—Kirkus Reviews

"This is the most robust defense of historical counterfactuals to date . . . For those interested in this fascinating subject, Black's book is indispensable."—Publishers Weekly (Starred Review)

"A wide-ranging and lively commentary on the utility (and limits) of examining what did not happen in the past as a way to make sense of what did... Black makes a powerful case for the analytical value of counterfactualism in the explanation of structural questions, in particular how the modern world system took the shape it did, does, and might in the future. Other Pasts represents the kind of wide and up-to-date synthesis that is a hallmark of Black's scholarship."—John Brobst, author of The Future of the Great Game: Sir Olaf Caroe, India's Independence, and the Defense of Asi

"A concise, comprehensive analysis of an approach to history that is far more complex than either its supporters or its critics understand. Black succeeds above all in establishing counterfactualism's importance in extending the grounded imagination. And that is increasingly important in an era when on the one hand scholars are increasingly obsessed with digging postholes and protecting turf, and on the other, pundits and politicians rejoice in detaching their speculations from any and all connection with the past. . . . The reference apparatus by itself is worth the price of the book [and] I appreciate as well the global approach. . . . The question 'why?', basic to history, cannot be adequately addressed without at least evaluating untaken roads."—Dennis Showalter, author of Armor and Blood: The Battle of Kursk, the Turning Point of World War II

"Other Pasts, Different Presents, Alternative Futures will be of use to those teaching methods and sources to provoke reflection on individual teaching practice and as a tool for thinking more carefully about how we can appropriately use 'what if's' in our teaching."—History of Education

From the Publisher

2015-05-14
A dense study of counterfactualism and its use in the practice of history. The method of examining past events with the knowledge of the circumstances that affected decisions is a powerful tool to understanding what happened. Seeing the uncertainty, the "unknown knowns," and outside forces that affected historical incidents help us divine why things happened as they did—as well as what might have been. Black (History/Univ. of Exeter; The Power of Knowledge: How Information and Technology Made the Modern World, 2014, etc.) asserts that counterfactualism is more pronounced in Anglophone nations than in those cultures without the freedom to question definitive histories. Even so, he explores and explains its use and the approach to history in cultures as varied as the Mongols, Chinese, Muslims, Ottoman Turks, Finns, and Danes. Readers will need a background in world history, as the author cites battles and wars over the last two millennia. There is a long and interesting chapter on the rise of the West and how Europe took precedence in world affairs. Black explains that assertive, definitive history quells debate, and its need to explain all serves only to mislead. It is better to know the role of the individuals involved, the timing of significant events, and the short- and long-term effects of a counterfactual. Certain disciplines do not respond well to counterfactuals—e.g., social history since it affects too broad a cast. It is more appropriate and useful for military and political history and a boon for teaching. The author's illustrative examples of "what if," "how," and "why" will make readers sit back and wonder—the whole point of counterfactuals. Black's academic style can drag readers down in certain dry and wordy sections. However, his scholarly outlook on history today, its ambiguity and uncertainty, the need of analyzing, interpreting, and reinterpreting events, makes it well worth fighting through slow patches to appreciate his extensive store of knowledge.

Kirkus Reviews

Other Pasts, Different Presents, Alternative Futures will be of use to those teaching methods and sources to provoke reflection on individual teaching practice and as a tool for thinking more carefully about how we can appropriately use 'what if's' in our teaching.

History of Education

Professor Black shows, in this intriguing book, exactly why the examination of different potential outcomes can aid historical understanding. He pinpoints how the expectation of events, even when unrealised, can determine human actions and affect perceptions of both past and future. Black demonstrates that, in skilful hands, counterfactual history is more than just fun; as one ingredient among many, it can be an extremely fertile source of explanation.

History Today

With a unique methodology, Black performs a what-if analysis of history to show how little it takes to change the world's fate. . .This book provokes thought and speculation while also entertaining.

Foreword Reviews

A sparkling defense of the legitimacy and utility of counterfactual history—of what ifs—and the best single work on its subject available.

Weekly Standard