New Landscapes of Population Change: A Demographic World Tour

by Adele M. Hayutin

Overview

Demographic forces—declining populations in many countries and surging populations in others, aging societies, and shrinking workforces—have national, regional, and global reverberations. Behind many of today’s news headlines lie critical challenges rooted in worldwide demographic upheaval, with important implications for our future. New Landscapes of Population Change demonstrates how fertility, life expectancy, and migration, the key demographic drivers, interact to shape this future. Hayutin takes readers on a demographic world tour, focusing her analysis on key regions and countries—the largest economies, selected emerging economies, fast-growing populations, and major political hot spots—that will drive pivotal conversations in the decades ahead. More than 100 compelling and easy-to-read charts illustrate striking comparisons that will help readers develop a comprehensive understanding of how demographics will influence economic security and political stability through the end of our century.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780817925352
Publisher:	Hoover Institution Press
Publication date:	12/01/2022
Pages:	332
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.80(d)

About the Author

Adele Hayutin, an Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, is a business economist specializing in comparative international demographics.

Table of Contents

Note to the Reader on Data Sources and Nomenclature xi

List of Figures and Tables xv

Acknowledgments xxiii

Part I

Introduction 1

1 Uncharted Territory 3

2 The Big Picture of Global Population Growth 11

Part II

Demographic Drivers 57

3 Declining Fertility 59

4 Increasing Life Expectancy 93

5 Increasing International Migration 127

Part III

Key Demographic Challenges 183

6 Population Aging 185

7 Shrinking Workforces 215

Part IV

Looking to the Future 249

8 The Shape of Things to Come 251

9 Watch List 269

Appendix: UN Classification of Countries and Areas 283

About the Author 289

Index of Figures by Country 291

General Index 295

Editorial Reviews

Advance Praise for New Landscapes of Population Change

“A must-read book if you want a clear-eyed view into the global impacts of ongoing, unprecedented demographic shifts. In this comprehensive tour de force, Dr. Hayutin brings to bear lens-changing data and the inexorable trends that must be understood and incorporated now into our national security strategies. An unmatched and invaluable resource.”

—General Jim Mattis, US Marines (ret.) and twenty-sixth Secretary of Defense

“While ‘demography is destiny’ is an overstatement, anyone interested in national or global economic, financial, labor market, and political history and future challenges must understand demographic trends and their applications. Adele Hayutin’s insightful, beautifully illustrated New Landscapes of Population Change is the invaluable best place to start.”

—Michael J. Boskin, Tully M. Friedman Professor of Economics and Wohlford Family Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; and former chair, President’s Council of Economic Advisers

“As Adele Hayutin shows in this stunning and vividly illustrated analysis, historic shifts are under way in global population dynamics. Wealthier countries will see their populations age and shrink due to declining fertility, while today’s poorer countries will continue to experience rapid population growth for decades to come. These changes will heavily influence employment needs and opportunities, migration patterns, economic growth, environmental sustainability, political power, and social stability. Policy makers, business leaders, and thoughtful citizens worldwide will benefit enormously from reading this work.”

—Larry Diamond, senior fellow, Hoover Institution; and Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

“Population changes and demographics will change all our lives. The analyses are critical, and the demographic trends and figures are riveting. It is a view into the future, for business, policy, development, and foreign affairs leaders and students.”

—Henrietta Fore, former executive director of UNICEF, former administrator of USAID, and former director of foreign assistance, US Department of State

“The author has provided us with an invaluable source of easily accessible data on the world’s demographic future. As a real estate and urban economist, I have long considered demographic data the key to any medium- or long-term projections on economic and real estate markets on a metropolitan and countrywide basis. The author’s analysis showing the explosive population growth projected for Africa and projected dramatic decline in population for Europe, China, and Japan should be a critical input for business leaders and policy makers. I especially like the graphics showing the role of alternative assumptions for Africa. The author’s work begs for an interactive version with an ability to simulate different assumptions and policy levers that may change a country’s ‘demographic destiny.’ This book is essential reading for any global business and policy leader.”

—Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, Haas School of Business, University of California–Berkeley

“With the deft perception of an experienced analyst, Hayutin lays out population and age structure data and insights within and across nations. The demographics reveal critical risks and opportunities and inform possibilities and priorities from finance and markets to agriculture and industry to policy and politics.”

—Sue Wagner, co-founder, BlackRock

“I dare you to read the first five pages of this document. I guarantee that if you do, you won’t be able to put it down. . . . This report features characters and plot that give any page-turner a run for its money. But this is no work of fiction: it is truth—or as close to it as the UN data allow. The plot is fascinating and full of suspense. But what is most compelling is that this tale has no ending. . . . Ultimately, we are the authors of this story.”

—George P. Shultz, former secretary of state, on a precursor to New Landscapes of Population Change

From the Publisher