Table of Contents
Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1 The Plain-Old Normal
Yes Sir, Sir John
The Normal Normal
The Jobless Recovery
The Always Feared, Rarely Seen Double-Dip
Chapter 2 Fooled By Averages
Bull Markets Are Inherently Above Average
Viva the V
Normal Returns Are Extreme, Not Average
The Pause That Refreshes (And Confuses)
Getting Average Returns Is Hard—Really Hard
Chapter 3 Volatility Is Normal—and Volatile
What the Heck Is Volatility
Volatility Is Volatile
The Daily Grind
Stocks Are Less Volatile Than Bonds?
Economic Volatility—Also Normal
Volatility Isn't Bad, It's Good!
Never a Dull Moment
Chapter 4 Secular Bear? (Secular) Bull!
Seeing the World Through Bear-Colored Glasses
Two Secular Bear Markets?
Stocks—Up Vastly More Than Down
Chapter 5 Debt and Deficient Thinking
Deficits Aren't Bad, But Surpluses Will Kill You
The History of Big Government Debt
Just Who Is at Default Here?
Chapter 6 Long-Term Love and Other Investing Errors
No One Category Is Best for All Time
Long-Term Love Is Like Long-term Forecasting—Both Wrong
It's Still Heat Chasing Even When It Seems “safe”
Use History to Your Advantage
Chapter 7 Poli-Ticking
Enter the Ideology-Free Zone
Your Party Isn't Better
Presidents and Risk Aversion
Perverse Inverse—It's Four and One
Poli-Tics Go Global
Poli-tics Versus Entrepreneurs
Chapter 8 It's (Always Been) a Global World After All
It's Always Been a Small World
Seeing the World Right
Conclusion
Appendix A
There's No Place Like Kansas
Notes
Index
