Invisible in the Storm: The Role of Mathematics in Understanding Weather

by Ian Roulstone, John Norbury

Overview

An accessible book that examines the mathematics of weather prediction

Invisible in the Storm is the first book to recount the history, personalities, and ideas behind one of the greatest scientific successes of modern times—the use of mathematics in weather prediction. Although humans have tried to forecast weather for millennia, mathematical principles were used in meteorology only after the turn of the twentieth century. From the first proposal for using mathematics to predict weather, to the supercomputers that now process meteorological information gathered from satellites and weather stations, Ian Roulstone and John Norbury narrate the groundbreaking evolution of modern forecasting.

The authors begin with Vilhelm Bjerknes, a Norwegian physicist and meteorologist who in 1904 came up with a method now known as numerical weather prediction. Although his proposed calculations could not be implemented without computers, his early attempts, along with those of Lewis Fry Richardson, marked a turning point in atmospheric science. Roulstone and Norbury describe the discovery of chaos theory's butterfly effect, in which tiny variations in initial conditions produce large variations in the long-term behavior of a system—dashing the hopes of perfect predictability for weather patterns. They explore how weather forecasters today formulate their ideas through state-of-the-art mathematics, taking into account limitations to predictability. Millions of variables—known, unknown, and approximate—as well as billions of calculations, are involved in every forecast, producing informative and fascinating modern computer simulations of the Earth system.

Accessible and timely, Invisible in the Storm explains the crucial role of mathematics in understanding the ever-changing weather.

Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781400846221
Publisher:	Princeton University Press
Publication date:	02/21/2013
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	376
File size:	8 MB

About the Author

Ian Roulstone is professor of mathematics at the University of Surrey. John Norbury is a fellow in applied mathematics at Lincoln College, University of Oxford. They are the coeditors of Large-Scale Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics.

Table of Contents

Preface vii
Prelude: New Beginnings 1
ONE The Fabric of a Vision 3
TWO From Lore to Laws 47
THREE Advances and Adversity 89
FOUR When the Wind Blows the Wind 125
Interlude: A Gordian Knot 149
FIVE Constraining the Possibilities 153
SIX The Metamorphosis of Meteorology 187
Color Insert follows page 230
SEVEN Math Gets the Picture 231
EIGHT Predicting in the Presence of Chaos 271
Postlude: Beyond the Butterfly 313
Glossary 317
Bibliography 319
Index 323

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"With illuminating descriptions and minimal technicality, Invisible in the Storm provides a vivid historical perspective on how the development of mathematical ideas, together with modern computer technology, has completely transformed our ability to understand and predict the weather. This is a gripping and highly informative book."—Roger Penrose, author of Cycles of Time: An Extraordinary New View of the Universe

"As a TV weather forecaster for over forty years, I have always maintained that meteorology depends on mathematics for meaning. Making this conclusive point, Invisible in the Storm takes readers on an intriguing journey through the history of meteorology, revealing the critical role of mathematics from the earliest days of weather predicting to the current age of computer-generated forecasts. This book guides you inside the storm, where math's importance is clearly visible."—Spencer Christian, chief weather forecaster at ABC-7 News/KGO-TV, San Francisco

"This is a very readable account of why it is possible to forecast the weather with useful accuracy. Focusing on historical background, this well-researched and scientifically accurate book shows how the work of some of the greatest scientists of the past laid the foundations exploited in modern weather forecasting. I am not aware of any other book that covers this ground for a general scientific audience."—M. J. P. Cullen, author of A Mathematical Theory of Large-Scale Atmosphere/Ocean Flow

"The tremendous improvement in weather prediction capabilities during the twentieth century is among the greatest success stories of the scientific approach to the understanding of nature. Combining a historical account with a qualitative/geometric approach, this enjoyable book makes that story accessible to a wider scientifically educated audience."—Sebastian Reich, University of Potsdam

Editorial Reviews

"UK mathematicians Roulstone and Norbury provide a lively account of the evolution of numerical weather prediction, focusing on the individuals involved in advancing measurement of atmospheric properties and the implementation of numerical methods to describe and predict atmospheric processes. . . . This unique historical narrative will interest scholars of the history and philosophy of science."

Choice

"Invisible in the Storm: The Role of Mathematics in Understanding Weather explores how mathematics and meteorology come together to improve weather and climate prediction, taking readers on a fascinating journey through the work of trailblazing scientists over the past 100 years."

University of Surrey website

Winner of the 2015 Louis J. Battan Author’s Award, American Meteorological Society

From the Publisher

"Mathematicians Ian Roulstone and John Norbury demystify the maths behind meteorology. Trailblazers' work is vividly evoked, from eighteenth-century mathematician Leonhard Euler on hydrostatics to physicist Vilhelm Bjerknes's numerical weather prediction. The pace cranks up with twentieth-century advances such as Jule Gregory Charney's harnessing of the gargantuan ENIAC computer for his work in the 1940s and 1950s on forecasting pressure patterns."

Nature

"Mathematicians Ian Roulstone and John Norbury demystify the maths behind meteorology. Trailblazers' work is vividly evoked, from eighteenth-century mathematician Leonhard Euler on hydrostatics to physicist Vilhelm Bjerknes's numerical weather prediction. The pace cranks up with twentieth-century advances such as Jule Gregory Charney's harnessing of the gargantuan ENIAC computer for his work in the 1940s and 1950s on forecasting pressure patterns."

Nature Lib

A welcome and authoritative account of the 20th-century contributions of mathematically sophisticated meteorologists such as Vilhelm Berknes (1862—1951), Carl-Gustav Rossby (1898—1957), Jule Charney (1917—1981), and Ed Lorenz (1917—2008). . . . Clearly, this book is informative and inspirational, leaving plenty of room for innovations by future generations of mathematicians and modelers.

MAA Reviews - James Rodger Fleming

[O]ne of the great strengths of the book is the way it picks apart the challenge of making predictions about a chaotic system, showing what improvements we might yet hope for and what factors confound them.

Prospect - Philip Ball