How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform
Why investment and financial reform are essential to China's continued economic well-being

Although China's economy has grown spectacularly over the last twenty-five years, economists disagree about how the Chinese economy is likely to fare in the short- and long-term future. Is China's growth sustainable, or has China relied too much on investment, which is subject to diminishing returns, and not enough on technological change? The first book on the relation between investment, finance, and growth in China, How China Grows dismisses this concern. James Riedel, Jing Jin, and Jian Gao argue that investment has not only been the engine of growth, but also the main source of technological progress and structural change in China.

What threatens future growth instead, the authors argue, are the weaknesses of China's financial system that undermine efficiency in investment allocation. Financial-sector reform and development are necessary, not only for sustaining long-term growth, but also for maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Although it includes some technical economic analysis, How China Grows is accessible to noneconomists and will benefit anyone who is interested in development finance in general and in China's economic growth in particular—whether economists, political scientists, bankers, or business people.

1137556865
How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform
Why investment and financial reform are essential to China's continued economic well-being

Although China's economy has grown spectacularly over the last twenty-five years, economists disagree about how the Chinese economy is likely to fare in the short- and long-term future. Is China's growth sustainable, or has China relied too much on investment, which is subject to diminishing returns, and not enough on technological change? The first book on the relation between investment, finance, and growth in China, How China Grows dismisses this concern. James Riedel, Jing Jin, and Jian Gao argue that investment has not only been the engine of growth, but also the main source of technological progress and structural change in China.

What threatens future growth instead, the authors argue, are the weaknesses of China's financial system that undermine efficiency in investment allocation. Financial-sector reform and development are necessary, not only for sustaining long-term growth, but also for maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Although it includes some technical economic analysis, How China Grows is accessible to noneconomists and will benefit anyone who is interested in development finance in general and in China's economic growth in particular—whether economists, political scientists, bankers, or business people.

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How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform

How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform

How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform

How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform

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Overview

Why investment and financial reform are essential to China's continued economic well-being

Although China's economy has grown spectacularly over the last twenty-five years, economists disagree about how the Chinese economy is likely to fare in the short- and long-term future. Is China's growth sustainable, or has China relied too much on investment, which is subject to diminishing returns, and not enough on technological change? The first book on the relation between investment, finance, and growth in China, How China Grows dismisses this concern. James Riedel, Jing Jin, and Jian Gao argue that investment has not only been the engine of growth, but also the main source of technological progress and structural change in China.

What threatens future growth instead, the authors argue, are the weaknesses of China's financial system that undermine efficiency in investment allocation. Financial-sector reform and development are necessary, not only for sustaining long-term growth, but also for maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Although it includes some technical economic analysis, How China Grows is accessible to noneconomists and will benefit anyone who is interested in development finance in general and in China's economic growth in particular—whether economists, political scientists, bankers, or business people.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780691248066
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 06/06/2023
Pages: 224
Product dimensions: 5.50(w) x 8.50(h) x (d)

About the Author

James Riedel is Professor of International Economics at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. Jing Jin is Director of China Strategy for UBS AG Hong Kong, and a professor at Beijing's Central University of Finance and Economics. Jian Gao is Vice-Governor of the China Development Bank in Beijing.

Table of Contents


Preface     ix
Acknowledgments     xi
Overview of Economic Reforms and Outcomes     1
Agricultural Reform: 1979-85     4
Industrial Reform: 1978-93     6
Transition to a Market Economy: 1994-2003     11
Foreign Trade and Investment     13
Financial Sector     16
The Source of Growth and the Role of Investment     18
Methodology of Growth Accounting     18
Measurement of TFPG in China     20
Production Function Estimates of TFPG in China     23
Explaining TFPG in China     25
The Contribution of Investment Reconsidered     28
Technological Change Reconsidered     32
Postscript: Investment versus Domestic Demand as a Source of Growth     35
Saving and the Financing of Investment in China     36
Investment     38
Financing Investment     42
Financial Flows between Sectors     45
Household Saving     47
Government Saving and Investment     54
Foreign Saving     60
Summary and Conclusions     65
Financial Sector Repression     70
Why Repress the Financial System?     71
HowRepressed Is China's Financial System?     74
Finance and Growth in China     84
Strategy of Financial Development     90
Banking Sector Reform     93
Key Features of the Banking Sector     93
Problems of the Banking Sector     95
Measures Taken to Strengthen the Banking Sector     101
Developments in the Bond Market     115
The Role of a Bond Market     115
The Bond Market in China     116
Government Bonds     118
Corporate Bond Market     131
Conclusion     132
The Rise and Fall of the Stock Market     134
The Rise     135
The Fall     140
Conclusion     148
Macroeconomic Policy and Performance     150
Ups and Downs in the Macro Economy     151
Investment Spending as the Proximate Cause of Macroeconomic Cycles     152
Anatomy of Macro Cycles in China     155
Monetary Policy     165
Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Policy     171
Fiscal Policy     179
Conclusion     186
References     189
Index     199

What People are Saying About This

Lardy

How China Grows is a concise and systematic evaluation of the role of investment in China's economic growth since 1978. The authors argue that investment has been the main driver of China's growth but that future growth will require a more effective financial, particularly banking, system. This is the first book to systematically examine the investment—growth nexus in China, and those interested in understanding the dynamics of China's growth over the past three decades will certainly want to read it.
Nicholas R. Lardy, Institute for International Economics

From the Publisher

"Challenging conventional theory, this excellent book argues that investment drives China's economic growth and technological development."—Franklin Allen, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

"How China Grows is a concise and systematic evaluation of the role of investment in China's economic growth since 1978. The authors argue that investment has been the main driver of China's growth but that future growth will require a more effective financial, particularly banking, system. This is the first book to systematically examine the investment—growth nexus in China, and those interested in understanding the dynamics of China's growth over the past three decades will certainly want to read it."—Nicholas R. Lardy, Institute for International Economics

Franklin Allen

Challenging conventional theory, this excellent book argues that investment drives China's economic growth and technological development.
Franklin Allen, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

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