Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan: U.S. Air Force Roles

by David E. Thaler, Theodore W. Karasik, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jennifer D.P. Moroney, Frederic Wehrey

Overview

The authors describe possible regional security structures and bilateral U.S. relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan. They recommend that the United States offer a wide range of security cooperation activities to compatible future governments in Kabul and Baghdad but should also plan to hedge against less-favorable contingencies. They emphasize that the U.S. Air Force should expect to remain heavily tasked for the foreseeable future.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780833041975
Publisher:	RAND Corporation
Publication date:	10/25/2008
Pages:	182
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.60(d)

About the Author

David Elliot Thaler (M.I.A., International Security Policy, Columbia University) is an IPA Fellow, HQ/USAF, Directorate of Programs and Evaluation, Resource Analyses Division, The Pentagon, Washington, D.C.

Theodore Karasik (PhD History UCLA) is Research Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. He is also Political Scientist in the International Policy and Security Group at RAND. Dr. Karasik has fourteen years work experience in geostrategic studies. His current work focuses on the nexus of health and national security in Eurasia and the Near East. He also specializes in security issues in the Caucasus and the evolving nature of Persian Gulf security.

Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figures and Table ix

Summary xi

Acknowledgments xxiii

Abbreviations xxvii

Chapter One Introduction 1

U.S., Iraqi, and Afghan Security Objectives 4

U.S. Interests in the Surrounding Regions 4

U.S. Interests in Iraq and Afghanistan 4

Iraqi and Afghan Security Objectives 8

Alternative Outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan 10

Toward Compatibility and Security 13

Toward Incompatibility and Insecurity 14

Toward Incompatibility and Security 15

Concluding Remarks 16

Chapter Two Perspectives on Potential Threats to Stability and Security in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Surrounding Regions 19

Introduction 19

Threats to Iraqi and Afghan Security 20

Threat Perceptions of Iraq's Domestic Groups 20

Threat Perceptions of Afghanistan's Domestic Groups 21

The Evolution of Terrorism and Insurgency in Afghanistan and Iraq 22

The Breakdown of Central Authority in Afghanistan and Iraq 28

Regional Threat Perceptions 31

Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf Cooperation Council States 33

Turkey 36

Iran 37

Pakistan 41

Threat Perceptions and Alternative Outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan 43

Concluding Remarks 46

Chapter Three Alternative Security Relationships 47

The Context of Future Regional Security Frameworks 48

Continued Competitive Bilateralism 50

Cooperative Bilateralism: Enhancing Cooperative Partnerships 51

Competitive Multilateralism: NATO in the Middle East? 53

Cooperative Multilateralism 55

A Layered Regional Security Framework 61

Bilateral U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan 62

Formal Defense Pacts 63

Strategic Partnerships 65

Situational Partnerships 67

Minimal or No Security Ties 70

Preferred U.S.Bilateral Security Ties with Iraq and Afghanistan 71

Building Future Security Cooperation with Iraq and Afghanistan 73

Shaping Partners Through Security Cooperation 73

Current Security Cooperation Activities 77

Security Cooperation with Afghanistan Under Alternative Outcomes 79

Security Cooperation with Iraq Under Alternative Outcomes 83

Concluding Remarks 88

Chapter Four Long-Term Roles for the U.S. Air Force in Iraq and Afghanistan 89

Roles of Iraqi and Afghan Security Forces 91

Developing Iraqi and Afghan Forces 93

Building Iraqi Airpower 97

Building Afghan Airpower 102

Building Air Capability in the Iraqi and Afghan Police Forces 105

Encouraging Cooperation Among Regional Air Forces 106

Concluding Remarks 108

USAF Direct Operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Surrounding Regions 108

Operational Tasks USAF Assets Will Be Asked to Accomplish 110

Ensuring "Jointness" in Planning in the Theater 113

USAF Posture in the Theater 115

A Sustained Level of Effort 117

Implications of Alternative Iraqi and Afghan Outcomes 118

Concluding Remarks 123

Chapter Five Conclusions and Recommendations 125

Recommendations for the USG and the DoD 126

Regional Partnerships and Security Structures 127

U.S. Partnerships with Iraq and Afghanistan 128

Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force 129

Building Iraqi and Afghan Capacity for Independent Air Operations 130

Direct Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan 132

Planning for a Long-Term Role 134

Appendix Force Structure Data, Iraqi and Afghan Air Arms, May 2007 137

Bibliography 139