Table of Contents
List of Illustrations xi
Preface and Acknowledgments xv
Part I Tools for Financial Planning 1
1 Revenue Forecasting 3
Learning Objectives 3
Concepts and the Tool 4
Simple Moving Average (SMA) 4
Exponential Smoothing (EXS) 6
Transformation Moving Average (TMA) 8
Regression Against Time (Regression) 8
A Quasi-Causal Forecasting Model 10
Determining Forecast Accuracy 11
A Case Study 13
Step 1 Cleaning the Data 13
Step 2 Choosing the Forecasting Technique 14
Step 3 Forecasting 15
Step 4 Monitoring Forecasting Performance 15
Exercises 16
2 Resource Development Analysis 22
Learning Objectives 22
Concepts and the Tool 22
Defining the Issue: The Revenue Shortage 23
Estimating the Revenue Shortage 24
Developing Revenue Options 27
Assessing Revenue Options 30
Making Decisions 31
A Case Study 32
Step 1 Denning the Issue 33
Step 2 Estimating the Revenue Shortage 33
Step 3 Developing Revenue Options 36
Step 4 Assessing Revenue Options 37
Step 5 Making Decisions 37
Exercises 38
3 Cost Estimation 41
Learning Objectives 41
Concepts and the Tool 42
Cost Classification 42
Total Cost Estimation 44
Average Cost Estimation 46
A Case Study 46
Step 1 Determining Personnel Costs 47
Step 2 Determining Operating Costs 47
Step 3 Determining Capital Costs 48
Step 4 Determining Total Program Costs 49
Step 5 Determining Average Costs 49
Exercises 50
4 Cost Comparison 54
Learning Objectives 54
Concepts and the Tool 54
A Case Study 58
Step 1 Estimating Project Costs 58
Step 2 Determining the Present Value of Cost 59
Step 3 Making Decisions 59
Exercises 60
5 Incremental Cost Analysis 63
Learning Objectives 63
Concepts and the Tool 64
A Case Study 65
Step 1 Examining Each Cost Item 66
Step 2 Determining the Incremental Cost (or the Marginal Cost, If Necessary) 67
Step 3 Making Decisions 67
Exercises 67
6 Cost-Benefit Analysis 70
Learning Objectives 70
Concepts and the Tool 70
Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis 70
Issues in Cost-Benefit Analysis 72
A Case Study 74
Step 1 Formulating the Question in Cost-Benefit Analysis 76
Step 2 Determining the Benefit 76
Step 3 Determining the Cost 77
Step 4 Determining the Discount Rate 78
Step 5 Calculating the Net Present Value 78
Step 6 Making Decisions 78
Exercises 78
Part II Tools for Financial Implementation 83
7 Financial Performance Monitoring 85
Learning Objectives 85
Concepts and the Tool 86
Determining Monitoring Indicators 86
Detecting Unacceptable Performance 90
Understanding the Causes and Taking Action 91
A Case Study 93
Step 1 Determining and Assessing Individual Financial Indicators 93
Step 2 Detecting Unacceptable Performance 93
Step 3 Understanding Causes of Underperformance 94
Step 4 Developing a Monitoring Report 94
Exercises 95
8 Cash Management: Determining the Optimal Cash Balance 99
Learning Objectives 99
Concepts and the Tool 100
Creating a Cash Budget 100
Determining the Optimal Cash Balance 102
A Case Study 106
Step 1 Data Collection and a Review of the Data 106
Step 2 Use of the Miller-Orr Model 107
Step 3 Conducting the Analysis 107
Step 4 Making Decisions 108
Exercises 108
Part III Tools for Financial Reporting and Analysis 113
9 Financial Reporting and Analysis: The Statement of Net Assets and the Statement of Net Position 115
Learning Objectives 115
Concepts and the Tool 116
What Information Is in the Statement of Net Assets? 116
What Information Is in the Statement of Net Position? 117
The Accounting Process 118
Principles That Govern Accounting Practices 122
A Case Study 122
Step 1 Reviewing and Analyzing This Year's Statement of Net Assets 125
Step 2 Comparing with Last Year's Statement 125
Step 3 Searching for Solutions and Taking Actions 125
Exercises 126
10 Financial Reporting and Analysis: Statement of Activities 128
Learning Objectives 128
Concepts and the Tool 128
What Information Is in the Statement of Activities? 129
Accounting Bases 132
A Case Study 133
Step 1 Examining the Statement of Activities 134
Step 2 Comparing with Last Year's Statement 135
Step 3 Searching for Solutions and Taking Action 135
Exercises 135
11 Financial Reporting and Analysis: Fund-Level Statements 137
Learning Objectives 137
Concepts and the Tool 138
Governmental Funds 138
Proprietary Funds 140
Fiduciary Funds 141
A Case Study 141
Step 1 Reviewing the Fund Statements 142
Step 2 Comparing with Last Year's Statements 143
Step 3 Analyzing the Issues 144
Step 4 Searching for Solutions 144
Exercises 145
12 Financial Condition Analysis 148
Learning Objectives 148
Concepts and the Tool 148
What Is Financial Condition Analysis? 148
Determining Measures in FCA 149
Identifying Any Warning Trend of a Deteriorating Financial Condition 153
Specifying the Relationship 154
Explaining the Relationship 156
FCA Report Writing 157
A Case Study 157
Step 1 Defining the Scope of the Analysis 158
Step 2 Determining Measures and Collecting Data 158
Step 3 Identifying Warning Trends 160
Step 4 Specifying the Relationships 161
Step 5 Explaining the Relationships 163
Step 6 Taking Action to Improve Financial Condition 165
Exercises 166
13 Debt Capacity Analysis 169
Learning Objectives 169
Concepts and the Tool 170
Types of Debt 170
Debt Capacity Analysis: A Simple Example 171
Assessing the Current Debt Level 172
Determining the Debt Capacity 173
Determining the Additional Debt Capacity 174
Determining the Future Debt Capacity 175
A Case Study 175
Step 1 Calculating the Current Debt Level 175
Step 2 Determining the Debt Capacity 176
Step 3 Determining the Additional Debt Capacity 177
Step 4 Determining the Future Debt Capacity 178
Step 5 Preparing a Debt Capacity Report 180
Exercises 180
14 Financial Risk Assessment: Analyzing the Risk of Revenue Loss 183
Learning Objectives 183
Concepts and the Tool 183
What Is Financial Risk? 183
How to Measure the Risk of Revenue Loss 184
How to Reduce the Risk of Revenue Loss 188
A Case Study 190
Step 1 Developing the Purpose of the Analysis 192
Step 2 Identifying Major Revenue Sources and Estimating Revenue Risks 192
Step 3 Analyzing the Risks 193
Step 4 Making Recommendations to Reduce the Risk 195
Exercises 196
Appendix A Introduction to Microsoft Office Excel 199
Appendix B Exercise Answers 201
Glossary 223
Index 239
About the Author 255