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Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics
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Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics
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Overview
This monograph is unique in as much as it is dedicated to recent theoretical, numerical and empirical developments that aim to improve:
(i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, and, (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. The emphasis is on coupled, integrative assessment of the physical phenomena and their socio-economic impacts.
With its overarching theme, Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics will be relevant to and become an important tool for researchers and practitioners in the fields of hazard and risk analysis in general, as well as to those with a special interest in climate change, atmospheric and oceanic sciences, seismo-tectonics, hydrology, and space weather.
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9781119157038 |
---|---|
Publisher: | Wiley |
Publication date: | 11/24/2015 |
Series: | Geophysical Monograph Series , #214 |
Sold by: | JOHN WILEY & SONS |
Format: | eBook |
Pages: | 438 |
File size: | 109 MB |
Note: | This product may take a few minutes to download. |
About the Author
Michael Ghil is a distinguished research Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA. He joined the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory (Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS)) in the year 2002 as a distinguished Professor of Geosciences. He is a highly cited author in the field of geosciences with his research focus on the physics of climate change on all time scales. He is the author of a dozen books and over 275 refereed articles (including the Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA) and book chapters in the area of geophysics and climate dynamics. His research interests include atmospheric and oceanic sciences, climate dynamics, dynamical and complex systems theory, estimation theory, extreme events and prediction, geophysical fluid dynamics, macroeconomics, numerical and statistical methods, remote sensing and applications. He was awarded the 2011 Alfred Wegener Medal from the European Geosciences Union and has been recognized as an honorary member of the Union in 2012.
Jaime Urrutia Fucugauchi is the Director of the Institute of Geophysics at National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) since 1997 and is a Professor at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM since 1984. He is also the Chairman, Department of Geomagnetism and Geophysical Exploration at the Institute of Geophysics, UNAM (since 1984). He is a former President of the Mexican Geophysical Union (1985-1987). He has also served as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research (1993-1995) (American Geophysical Union). He has over 200 research articles in the field. His research interests include Geo- and Paleo-magnetism, Magnetostratigraphy, Paleogeography and Tectonics, Paleoclimatic and Environmental Evolution and Exploration Geophysics.
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Table of Contents
Contributors viiPreface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
1 IntroductionMario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi 1
Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 7
2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data AnalysisGwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau 9
3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme EventsCatherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis 23
4 Skill of Data-based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature AnomaliesStefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, and Holger Kantz 35
5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping PointsTimothy M Lenton and Valerie N Livina 51
6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation ApproachMichael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin 63
Part II: Extreme Events in Earth’s Space Environment 79
7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass EjectionsAlexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev 81
8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene BoundaryJaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi and Ligia Pérez-Cruz 93
Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 113
9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United StatesAndrew W Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura 115
10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane WilmaEdgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez-Ortiz, Ismael Mariño-Tapia, and Angélica Felix 125
11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean TsunamiKazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa 137
12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric ExcitationMichael G Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann 153
Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 163
13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy ApproachMaría-Teresa Ramírez-Herrera, Néstor Corona, and Gerardo Suárez 165
14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal VariationsPaola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti 177
15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard AssessmentServando De la Cruz-Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas 195
Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 205
16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value TheoryRichard W Katz 207
17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid ApproachMario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth, Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar 219
18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic ImpactsSuzana J Camargo and Solomon M Hsiang 303
19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic EconomyAndreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stéphane Hallegatte 343
Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 361
20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian CoastsLubna A Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G McAdoo 363
21 High-Tech Risks: The 2011 Tôhoku Extreme EventsHeriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz 381
22 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster PreparednessVladimir Keilis-Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov 391
Index 407