Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration

by Ian Lerche, John A. MacKay

Overview

Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk. The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations using popular spread-sheet packages on personal computers.

• Covers economic risk from exploration through production models
• Brings methods to a level where all can be done on a PC
• Analyzes numerical examples from the real world
• Removes "mystery" from how economics is done
• Addresses assumptions in models and shows how they influence projections

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780080505008
Publisher:	Elsevier Science
Publication date:	01/08/1999
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	404
File size:	14 MB
Note:	This product may take a few minutes to download.

About the Author

C. Ian Lerche is the author of more than 500 papers and has received numerous awards, including the Levorsen Award of the AAPG, the Nordic Professorship inPetroleum Geology, and the French Academie des Sciences Professorship in Geology. He has been a professor of geology in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of South Carolina since 1984, and was associate chairman of the department 1985–1989. Between 1965–1981 he held positions of research associate, assistant professor, and associate professor at the University of Chicago. From 1981–1984 he worked as a senior scientist at Gulf Research and Development Co. He received a B.Sc. in physics in 1962 and a Ph.D. in astronomy in 1965 from the University of Manchester.

Table of Contents

Preface. Introduction. Risk Adjusted Value (RAV) and Working Interest. Uncertainty and Probability Estimates for Risk Adjusted Values and Working Interest. Portfolio Balancing and Risk Adjusted Values Under Constrained Budget Conditions. Similarity, Dependence and Correlation for Risk Adjusted Values and Working Interest. Modifications to Risk Aversion in High Gain Situations. Corporate Funding Requests, Fixed Budgets, and Cost Balancing. Maximizing Oil Field Profit in the Face of Uncertainty. The Value of Added Information: Categories of Worth. Counting Successes, and Bidding Statistics Analyses. Economic Model Uncertainties. Bayesian Updating of an Opportunity. Options in Exploration Risk Analysis. Appendix A: Numerical Methods and Spread Sheets. Epilogue: Summary. References.

Editorial Reviews

Provides a framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk, discussing economic risk from exploration through production models, addressing assumptions in models, and showing how they influence projections. Readers are assumed to understand how models are used to determine uncertainty, risk, and strategy in evaluating the potential resource assessment, its uncertainty, and the major contributors to that uncertainty (as detailed in one of the author's previous work, ). Annotation c. by Book News, Inc., Portland, Or.

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