This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. Anti-government protest movements have been increasingly significant in Russian politics. This thesis investigates why these movements have risen, as well as if and how they resonate with the broader segments of Russian society. It draws inferences based on scholarly research regarding the durability of these movements in the short and long terms based on social movement theory. Through the application of this theory, it is found that mobilization is the most determining characteristic in measuring the opposition's potential durability. With the Russian government's thus far successful campaign to suppress anti-government movements and mobilization numbers too minimal to generate a necessity for genuine and lasting change, hope for the resilience of the country's opposition force is nominal.
This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
On December 4, 2011, what became known as the Snow Revolution broke out in response to the Russian legislative elections. These protests, which involved tens of thousands in opposition to the Russian government, were motivated by a then immense concern that the results of the elections had been corrupted. As New York Times journalist Ellen Barry wrote just days after the revolution began, "The demonstration marked what opposition leaders hope will be a watershed moment, ending years of quiet acceptance of the political consolidation Mr. Putin introduced." Vladimir Putin, Russia's president 2000-2008 and 2012-present, instituted a soft-authoritarianism style of government in Russia, thus holding firm control over the Kremlin (Russia's central government), law enforcement, and population. The 2011 protests marked the first major outbreak against Putin-influenced corruption, and the beginning of a larger social movement, which would act in opposition to Putin's style of governance.
Upon Putin's reelection in 2012 and, thus, reestablishment of his presidential power, pro-government movements surfaced in response to these anti-government protests, intensifying the issue of contentious politics in Russia. Since Vladimir Putin's rise to political office in 1999, and especially since the Snow Revolution, government-sanctioned movements have been increasingly significant in Russian street politics These pro-government groups could foreshadow a solidification in the continued support for the style of government Putin has created. They would create a bulwark against those civil-society groups in Russia seeking a return to democracy and preservation of civil liberties. In the face of pro-government presence in civilian political activity, how durable are anti-government movements likely to be? This thesis will investigate why these movements have risen, as well as whether and how they resonate with the broader segments of Russian society. It will draw inferences based on scholarly research regarding the durability of these movements in the short and long terms. Specifically, it will evaluate literature that has both laid out the measurements of movement durability and applied said measurements to the Russian context.
