Table of Contents
List of Contributors
Acknowledgments
1 Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
2 Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes
3 Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations
4 Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences
5 Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis
6 Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran
7 Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence
8 Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution
9 Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory
10 Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis
11 Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics
12 Counterfactuals, Past and Future
Commentary 1: Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences
Commentary 2: Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments
Commentary 3: Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences
Commentary 4: Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity
References
Index