Climate Change: Briefings from Southern Africa

by Mary Scholes, Robert (Bob) Scholes, Mike Lucas

Overview

Climate change affects us all, but it can be a confusing business. In this book, three scientists with several decades of experience in assessing the potential effects of climate change for the southern African region share their insights. Complex issues are dealt with in plain language, without oversimplification and with attention to accuracy. The material is up-to-date as is possible in such a fast-developing field.
Climate Change: Briefings from Southern Africa takes the form of 55 'frequently-asked' questions', each with a brief and clear reply. It is illustrated with colour diagrams and photographs, and examples are tailored to the regional context. The authors' introduction provides an overview of current national and international policies aimed at regulating climate change. The content is divided into four sections, which take the reader through the science of how climate system works; the projected impacts in southern Africa during the twenty-first century; what this means for the South African economy and society; and what can be done to avoid harm. The briefings can be read alone or in sequence.
The year 2015 is regarded as a watershed for global climate change action if a global average temperature rise of more than two degrees abbove the pre-Industrial level is to be avoided. This book provides compelling evidence that the impact on agriculture, fisheries, water resources, human health, plants and animals as well as sea levels will be dangerous. However, the book ends on a positive note by offering advice on how the world can avoid such bleak outcomes, while allowing a good life for all.
The volume is aimed at interested non-scientists, including business people, decision-makers, ordinary citizens and students

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781868149186
Publisher:	Wits University Press
Publication date:	11/01/2015
Pages:	368
Product dimensions:	6.60(w) x 9.40(h) x 0.50(d)

About the Author

Mary Scholes is a Professor in the School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg and is the SARChI (South African Research Chairs Initiative) chair with a focus on global change and systems analysis. Her climate change research focuses on agriculture and food security as well as impacts of acidic deposition resulting from the burning of fossil fuels.

Robert (Bob) Scholes is a Professor of Systems Ecology at the University of the Witwatersrand. He has worked on the issue of climate change since 1990, and was a Lead Author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s influential assessments in 2000, 2007 and 2014. His specialty is the interaction between terrestrial ecosystems in Africa and the global climate, and he is widely regarded as a world expert in this field.

Mike Lucas was an Associate Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at the University of Cape Town. He was the South African and African member of the International Scientific Committee of Oceanic Research (SCOR), a special committee of the International Council for Science (ICSU). His own research focused on how climate change affects the marine environment, particularly the Atlantic and Southern Oceans, and how this in turn affects global climate.

Table of Contents

Foreword Minister Naledi Pandor ix

Acronyms and abbreviations x

Preface xi

How do governments assess climate change? xii

Sidebar: Climate change sceptics and scientific reasoning xv

Section 1 Earth system science: The processes that underline climate change xiv

Introduction 1

1 Why is Earth habitable? 2

Sidebar: Heat radiator? 4

2 How do greenhouse gases regulate Earth's temperature? 5

3 Is water vapour the most important greenhouse gas? 7

4 Why are clouds the wild card in climate change? 9

5 Is climate change just part of a long-term natural cycle? 12

Sidebar: Milankovic cyeies 13

6 Are climate variations just due to volcanoes or other Earth processes? 15

7 How do El Niño and La Nina events affect South African weather? 19

8 How hot might it get in South Africa this century? 23

9 How might the rainfall in Southern Africa change in the twenty-first century? 26

10 Are extreme weather events related to climate change? 29

11 How do land-use changes and deforestation affect global warming? 33

12 What is South Africa's contribution to global warming? 36

13 What happens to carbon dioxide emissions? 38

14 Can ecosystems keep sucking up carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning? 41

15 Could ocean currents slow down or change direction? 44

16 Is there any chance of runaway global warming? 48

Section 2 Consequences of a changing climate for the Southern African environment 50

Introduction 51

1 How resilient are ecosystems to climate change? 53

2 How wilt South Africa's plants respond to climate change? 56

3 Could rising carbon dioxide concentrations boost plant growth? 60

4 Is bush encroachment caused by global change? 63

5 Will South Africa's land animals cope with climate change? 66

6 Are South Africa's birds taking flight? 68

7 Will South Africa run out of water? 71

8 How will climate change affect freshwater ecosystems? 74

9 How much, and how fast, will sea level rise? 77

10 What is ocean acidification? 81

Sidebar: The chemistry of ocean acidification and calcification 82

11 How will ocean acidification affect marine organisms? 85

12 How is climate change affecting South Africa's coastal seas? 88

13 How is our marine life responding to climate change? 92

Sidebar: Is the African penguin a victim of climate, change? 95

14 Will coral reefs survive climate change? 96

15 Are South Africa's Prince Edward Islands vulnerable to climate change? 99

16 How are Antarctica and the Southern Ocean responding to climate change? 102

Sidebar: Why is South Africa so involved in Antarctica? 102

Section 3 Consequences of a changing climate for society 109

Introduction 109

1 Is the South African economy vulnerable to climate change? 110

2 How will climate change affect agriculture? 113

3 Will there be enough food to eat? 116

4 Do cow farts realty cause global warming? 119

5 How will forestry in South Africa respond to climate change? 121

6 How will climate change affect South Africa's marine fisheries and aquaculture? 124

7 What are the human costs of climate change? 129

8 How do climate and air pollution interact to affect human health? 131

9 Will climate change cause malaria to spread in South Africa? 133

10 Should South Africans worry about rising sea levels? 138

Section 4 What we can do to avoid and adapt to climate change 140

Introduction 141

1 Is it cheaper to tolerate climate change or prevent it? 142

Sidebar: The road to a global climate deal 144

2 Is carbon trading desirable or useful? 145

3 Is it possible to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere? 147

4 Could fertilizing the oceans fix climate change? 150

5 Could we reduce incoming solar radiation? 153

6 Are there viable alternatives to coal for South Africa? 155

Sidebar: Emerging technologies - ocean power 158

7 Can nuclear power provide the clean energy we need? 159

8 Can we turn garbage into energy?

9 Do biofuels offer a solution? 162

10 Could spekboom save our bacon? 165

11 Can we help plants and animals adapt to climate change? 167

12 Can we build climate-friendly houses and cities? 170

13 How can I reduce my carbon footprint? 173

Sidebar: Some simple energy-saving tips 175

Sidebar: Did yaw Know? 175

Codicil Is there a dangerous level of climate change? 176

Glossary 179

List of figures 186

References 190

Reading List 194

Index 195