Climate Change in the Midwest: Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

by Sara C. Pryor (Editor), D. Zierden (Contribution by), Wendy-Lin Bartles (Contribution by), James J. O'Brien (Contribution by), David Letson (Contribution by)

Overview

The research presented in this volume focuses on identifying and quantifying the major vulnerabilities to climate change in the Midwestern United States. By providing state-of-the-art spatially disaggregated information regarding the historical, current, and possible future climate within the region, the contributors assess the risks and susceptibility of the critical socio-economic and environmental systems. Key sectors discussed are agriculture, human health, water, energy and infrastructure, and the vulnerabilities that may be amplified under current climate trajectories. The book also considers the challenges and opportunities to develop local and regional strategies for addressing the risks posed by climate change in the context of developing an integrative policy for the region.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780253007742
Publisher:	Indiana University Press
Publication date:	01/21/2013
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	288
File size:	20 MB
Note:	This product may take a few minutes to download.
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

S. C. Pryor is Provost's Professor of Atmospheric Science at Indiana University Bloomington and editor of Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres and of Understanding Climate Change: Climate Variability, Predictability, and Change in the Midwestern United States (IUP, 2009).

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Climate Change in the Midwest

Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

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By S. C. Pryor

Indiana University Press

Copyright © 2013 Indiana University Press
All rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-253-00774-2

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CHAPTER 1

Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: An Introduction

S. C. PRYOR

Global Climate Change

There is an overwhelming preponderance of evidence to suggest that human activities have, and are, modifying the global atmospheric composition sufficiently that anthropogenic climate change is already being experienced (Bernstein et al. 2007). Further, it is now inevitable that the global climate system will continue to change as a consequence of both past and future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) (Bernstein et al. 2007) and may achieve conditions that lie outside the range of climate states that humans have experienced (Solomon et al. 2009). Although "No-one can predict the consequences of climate change with complete certainty; ... we now know enough to understand the risks" (Stern 2007). Substantiating evidence for these assertions may be drawn from the following major findings from the Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (see Table 1.1 for information regarding the IPCC definitions used to articulate confidence or likelihood):

• We have "very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2" (Solomon et al. 2007).

• "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Palaeoclimatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years.... Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" (Solomon et al. 2007).

• "For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected ... Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century" (Solomon et al. 2007).

• "Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases (very high confidence)" (Parry et al. 2007).

• "Global mean temperature changes of 2°C to 4°C above 1990–2000 levels would result in an increasing number of key impacts at all scales (high confidence), such as widespread loss of biodiversity, decreasing global agricultural productivity. Global mean temperature changes greater than 4°C above 1990–2000 levels would lead to major increases in vulnerability (very high confidence), exceeding the adaptive capacity of many systems (very high confidence)" (Parry et al. 2007).

• "There is still high confidence that the distribution of climate impacts will be uneven, and that low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk. However, recent work has shown that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within individual countries. As a consequence, some population groups in developed countries are also highly vulnerable." (Parry et al. 2007)

• Between 1970 and 2004, global emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6, weighted by their global warming potential (GWP), have increased by 70 percent (24 percent between 1990 and 2004), from 28.7 to 49 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (GtCO2-eq) (Metz et al. 2007).

• The "span of energy-related and industrial CO2 emissions in 2100 across baseline scenarios ... is very large, ranging from 17 to around 135 GtCO2-eq.... The majority of scenarios indicate an increase in emissions during most of the century. However, there are some baseline (reference) scenarios both in the new and older literature where emissions peak and then decline (high agreement, much evidence)" (Metz et al. 2007).

Table 1.1 and the discussion above illustrate a key challenge in formulating and communicating effective policy to respond to climate nonstationarity: how to effectively convey the degree of confidence in climate change scenarios and impacts. As shown in Figure 1.1, non-numeric probability statements evoke very different responses in different individuals when mapped onto a numeric probability scale. For this reason, the IPCC and other similar bodies and agencies have increasingly sought to clarify terminology. These measures are a key component of efforts to correct misconceptions. However, confusion and failure to understand the scientific underpinning of climatechange research stems not only from use of imprecise (or poorly understood) terminology and language, but also from the large divergence between discourse in the scientific community and U.S. press coverage (Boykoff and Boykoff 2004). A key source of the perceived need to present a "balanced" depiction of (1) the scientific consensus regarding the causes/magnitude and likely impacts of climate change and (2) the views of "climate change skeptics" in the popular press derives from misconceptions regarding the meaning of scientific uncertainty. Further, in this discourse, uncertainty has often been invoked to "inspire inaction" (Boykoff and Boykoff 2004)

The vignettes from the IPCC reports also speak to two other key components of the task of enabling decision makers to manage climate-related risks/opportunities: the need for reliable detection and attribution of changes in climate and their effects (Hegerl et al. 2010). Detection refers to identification of a change in a biological or physical process at some level of confidence, while attribution refers to statistical confidence in assigning responsibility to a given forcing mechanism (e.g., anthropogenic change of the atmospheric composition). Improved understanding of drivers of the climate system and the response of the climate system to those drivers derived from robust detection and attribution analyses naturally lead to greater confidence in projections of possible future climate states (Santer et al. 2009) and will thus greatly benefit the development of robust climate change policies.

Climate Change mitigation and adaptation

Informing effective responses to climate change and variability is predicated on three linked activities: (1) advancing fundamental understanding of climate science, including developing climate projections targeted at the scales at which the impacts are likely to be manifest, (2) mitigation activities designed to limit the magnitude of future climate change, and (3) efforts to understand the risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities posed by climate change and thus to develop optimal adaptation strategies. Adaptation and mitigation are thus two policy responses to climate change, which can be "complementary, substitutable or independent of each other" (Metz et al. 2007). In many cases there are clear symbioses between climate change mitigation (i.e., actions designed to reduce the atmospheric concentration of GHG) and adaptation measures (i.e., actions designed to exploit beneficial opportunities or moderate negative effects associated with climate change) (Coffee et al. 2010), and naturally, necessary adaptation measures will in part be determined by the degree of investment in mitigation (Warren 2010). Despite these symbioses, mitigation and adaptation differ with respect to the dominant players. Mitigation policies are often focused at the national or international level (e.g., the Kyoto agreement), while policy measures focused on adaptation are often enacted (and the benefits reaped) at the local level (Hallegatte 2009). "Mitigation of greenhouse gases can be viewed as a public good, adaptation to climate change is a private good benefiting only the country or the individual that invests in adaptation" (Hasson et al. 2010). Further, at least in some regions, thresholds for damaging impacts from climate change are likely to change, and thus the degree of desired climate change mitigation may be raised by implementation of adaptation measures. Some adaptation options may either ultimately be maladaptive (e.g., increase vulnerability to climate change) or increase GHG emissions (offsetting mitigation efforts) (Barnett and O'Neill 2010). Thus there is a substantial benefit to be gained from coordinating adaptation and mitigation activities, and while this volume is focused on improved understanding of the risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities poised by climate change with a focus on providing the basis for developing optimal adaptation strategies, where appropriate, the link with climate change mitigation is also discussed.

There are two types of adaptation. The first may be termed "autonomous" and refers to actions unmanaged or "naive" systems responding in an instinctive way based on their experience of recent and current conditions. The second is referred to as "planned" or prescriptive adaptation based on information regarding anticipated climate change. Planned adaptation typically involves conscious human intervention to protect or enhance desirable traits of the system (Pittock and Jones 2000, Smit et al. 2000). Thus the latter is predicated, in part, on reliable climate projections and articulation of vulnerability, exposure, and risk. Indeed, I assert that clear identification of the primary sources of risk associated with climate change and variability, articulated in the context of changing socioeconomic and environmental conditions, is a necessary prerequisite to identifying suitable adaptation mechanisms that can be implemented to ensure that disruption and damage to society, the economy, infrastructure, and the environment are minimized and that possible opportunities associated with these changes can be realized. This book is designed to achieve these goals with a focus on the midwestern region of the United States of America.

Article 2 of the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires the prevention of dangerous interference with the climate system and hence the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels and within a time frame that would achieve this objective. Defining "dangerous" climate change is a judgment cast in the sociopolitical context and is necessarily contingent upon the acceptable level of risk. "The criteria in Article 2 that specify (risks of) dangerous anthropogenic climate change include: food security, protection of ecosystems and sustainable economic development" (Metz et al. 2007). Despite Article 2 of the UNFCCC, global climate will likely evolve to surpass 2°C of warming and enter a realm that many consider dangerous (Parry et al. 2009). Even if full-scale climate change mitigation options are implemented, and the predicted rise in energy-related carbon emissions (of 45% by 2030) are not realized (Helm 2009), it now seems inevitable that there is "an adaptation gap"—that the scale and magnitude of climate change will exceed efforts to mitigate anthropogenic forcing of climate (Parry et al. 2009, Parry 2010) (Figure 1.2). Thus it is imperative to quantify the risks and opportunities posed by climate change and the vulnerability of society to climate change and to enact measures to increase resilience to evolution of the climate system. Accordingly, adaptation is a key component of post-2012 international climate policy negotiations. For example, according to the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord, by 2020, developed countries will provide US$100 billion per year to address the needs of developing countries, including adaptation (Ciscar et al. 2011)

Although the founding assumptions of analyses, such as those presented in the Stern Report on the "Economics of climate change" (Stern 2007), have been subject to considerable critique (Weyant 2008, Yohe and Tol 2008), there is evidence to suggest that actions to both mitigate climate change and adapt thereto will yield benefits in excess of the costs of doing so (Stern 2007). One recent study of the cost effectiveness of hazard mitigation programs in the United States found benefit-cost ratios of 3:1 to 7:1 for individual flood projects, and further estimated that the federal treasury saved $3.64 of future discounted expenditures or lost taxes for every dollar spent (Rose et al. 2007, Whitehead and Rose 2009). Further, some have suggested that strategies enacted to manage risks associated with climate change (and to adapt thereto) can, if managed well, promote other desirable outcomes (Costello et al. 2011). Further, in the content of agricultural systems, there are many potential adaptation options available that require only fairly marginal change of existing agricultural systems, at least some of which are variations of existing climate risk management. In one recent analysis, implementation of these options was shown to "likely have substantial benefits under moderate climate change" and in wheat cropping systems led to an increase in yields of 18 percent in the temperate latitudes (Howden et al. 2007).

Purpose of this Volume

In the previous volume within this series (Understanding Climate Change: Climate Variability, Predictability, and Change in the Midwestern United States), we provided a regionally comprehensive synthesis of historical and projected climate change and variability in the Midwest, plus an overview of specific climate hazards (Pryor 2009). Here we focus on the potential impacts and vulnerability of the midwestern United States to climate evolution, and specifically to the changing frequency, magnitude, or intensity of extreme events. For a national perspective, the reader is directed to the forthcoming 2013 National Climate Assessment report from the U.S. Interagency National Climate Assessment (INCA) Task Force, or prior reports therefrom (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2000). Additional sources of information regarding the scientific basis of climate projections and framing concepts for impact analyses and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation options may be found in recent reports from the National Research Council (National Research Council 2010a,b,c,d,e).

Many definitions of key terms have been proposed within the climate change adaptation literature (Füssel 2007). Herein we adopt the following (drawn in part from National Research Council (2010a) and Dawson et al. (2011)):

• Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects.

• Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

• Exposure: The extent of climate change likely to be experienced at a locale. Thus exposure is a function of both the rate and magnitude of the change.

• Resilience: A capability to (1) anticipate, (2) prepare for, (3) respond to, and (4) recover from significant multi-hazard threats with minimum damage to social well-being, the economy, and the environment.

• Risk: A combination of the magnitude of the potential consequence(s) of climate change impact(s) and the likelihood that the consequence(s) will occur.

• Sensitivity: The degree to which the survival/performance/persistence of a system is dependent on the prevailing climate.

• Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

There are major and multiple challenges in assessing the impacts and vulnerabilities of climate change and implications for risk and adaptation. Not least among these is the challenge of decision-making in the context of uncertainty. There is an uncertainty cascade from translation of socioeconomic and demographic data into GHG emission and concentration projections, through climate modeling at the global and regional scale, to impact analyses and vulnerability and adaptation assessments (Wilby and Dessai 2010). Exhaustive efforts to characterize at least parts of the uncertainty are becoming tractable and are resulting in illumination of research foci to reduce uncertainty (Hawkins and Sutton 2009, Pryor and Schoof 2010, Pryor et al. 2012). While uncertainty is and will remain a key component of any assessment exercise, we assert that identification of optimal adaptation options to increase resilience to climate variability and change is greatly facilitated by first quantifying the vulnerability and risk associated therewith. Key components of this analysis are:

• Severity of the impact and degree of benefit of adaptation measures.

• Immediacy of the required intervention/response.

• Need to change current operating procedures and the practicality of the intervention.

• Potential co-benefit and possibility of a measure to address multiple cross-sectoral issues.

• Distribution and equity of perceived benefits of a given adaptation strategy.

(Continues...)

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Excerpted from Climate Change in the Midwest by S. C. Pryor. Copyright © 2013 Indiana University Press. Excerpted by permission of Indiana University Press.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
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Table of Contents

Table of contents
Chapter 1 Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation: An Introduction ....... 9
Chapter 2 The Midwestern USA: Socio-Economic Context and Physical Climate .................... 19
Chapter 3 Vulnerability and Adaptability of Agricultural Systems in the Southeast USA to
Climate Variability and Climate Change .......................................................................... 64
Chapter 4 Uncertainty and Hysteresis in Adapting to Global Climate Change .......................... 76
Chapter 5 Climate - Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment for the Midwestern United States .. 86
Chapter 6 Potential Future Impacts of Climate on Row Crop Production in the Great Lakes
Region ............................................................................................................................. 101
Chapter 7 Vulnerability of Soil Carbon Reservoirs in the Midwest to Climate Change .......... 114
Chapter 8 Michigan's Tart Cherry Industry: Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change
........................................................................................................................................ 129
Chapter 9 Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Health ................................ 147
Chapter 10 Intra-Urban Variations in Vulnerability Associated with Extreme Heat Events in
Relationship to a Changing Climate ............................................................................... 164
Chapter 11 Historical and Projected Changes in Human Heat Stress in the Midwestern USA 177
Chapter 12 Vulnerability of the Electricity and Water Sectors to Climate Change in the Midwest
........................................................................................................................................ 192
Chapter 13 The Drought Risk Management Paradigm in the Context of Climate Change ...... 212
Chapter 14 Local Adaptation to Changing Flood Vulnerability in the Midwest ...................... 226
Chapter 15 The Response of Great Lakes Water Levels and Potential Impacts of Future Climate
Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 240
Chapter 16 Vulnerability of the Energy System to Extreme Wind Speeds and Icing ............... 252
Chapter 17 Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Midwestern
United States: What Next? .............................................................................................. 271

Editorial Reviews

"This volume is well organized, written, and edited . . . Recommended."—Choice

"When writing about climate change, scientists are often challenged with focusing on either specific academic audiences or more general readers. In rare instances, authors and editors can meet the needs of both groups. It is such a case with Climate Change in the Midwest. . . The contributors are among the best in their field. . . . The lessons here will separate the winners and losers of the future. It is my hope that enough people read this book so that a positive impact is realized.June 2014"—Quarterly Review of Biology

From the Publisher

When writing about climate change, scientists are often challenged with focusing on either specific academic audiences or more general readers. In rare instances, authors and editors can meet the needs of both groups. It is such a case with Climate Change in the Midwest. . . The contributors are among the best in their field. . . . The lessons here will separate the winners and losers of the future. It is my hope that enough people read this book so that a positive impact is realized.June 2014

Quarterly Review of Biology

This volume is well organized, written, and edited . . . Recommended.

Choice