China or Japan: Which Will Lead Asia?

by Claude Meyer

Overview

The twenty-first century will doubtless be that of Asia, which by 2030 will be home to three of the world's four mightiest economies, including India. This stimulating book aims to open a debate on the question of leadership in Asia for which China and Japan are competing. It assesses the two rivals' strengths and weaknesses as well as the major challenges which they will face in that battle for supremacy. On this basis, it proposes the most probable scenario for the next two decades in the light of the dialectical relationship between economics and strategic power. Without neglecting the strategic aspects that give advantage to China, priority is given to an economic approach, because that is the primary arena in which Asian integration is taking place and the one in which a resilient Japan still firmly maintains its leadership, based on productivity, competitiveness and technological edge.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780199327614
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
Publication date:	01/31/2012
Pages:	208
Product dimensions:	5.70(w) x 8.60(h) x 0.80(d)
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

Claude Meyer is Senior Fellow at GEM-Sciences Po, and teaches international economics at Sciences Po (Paris). He has pursued a dual career as an academic and as an executive in a Japanese bank. He holds a PhD in Economics and degrees in Philosophy, Sociology and Japanese Studies. His research and publications deal mainly with Asian economies with an emphasis on the interaction between economic power and strategic issues.

Table of Contents

Introduction
1. Genealogies of Two Economic Giants
China's awakening
From central planning to market socialism
Globalisation and how to make the most of it
Growth as a strategic aim of the Party-State
Japan's resilience
The Japanese "miracle"
High growth and external shocks (1955-1980)
Rivalling the United States (1980-1989)
Crisis and renewal
The 1990s: a lost decade?
A third round of modernisation?
Interlinked fates
Economic convergence
Five key steps in a troubled history
Kinship
Emancipation
Betrayal?
Aggression
Recognition
2. Mighty But Vulnerable
The levers of economic power
China's immense potential
The world's second-largest industrial power
Irresistible commercial expansion
An emerging financial power
Considerable potential for growth
Japan's strength and agility
An industrial and technological heavyweight
Commercial vigour and internationalisation
The world's largest creditor nation
Considerable challenges ahead
Threats to the pace of China's expansion
An unequal society
Warding off ecological disaster
China's financial burdens
Hungry for raw materials
The erosion of China's comparative advantages
China's political trade-off
A bleak outlook for Japanese growth
Japan's demographic challenge
Japan's public sector debt
Japan's dependence on imported energy and raw materials
The end of political paralysis in sight?
Giants shaken by the crisis
3. Japan, an Economic Leader Looking for Normalisation
Asia's economic leader
East Asia on the path to economic integration
A patchwork of institutions
Trade integration
Towards stability and financial autonomy
Japan's economic predominance
Japanese firms at the heart of the "integrated circuit"
Japanese financial power and Asian development
Soft power, Japanese-style
China and Japan: a relationship of dependence
Japan's aspiration to "normalisation"
A renewed focus on Asia
A partial conversion to regionalism
An ambitious vision of regional construction
Growing threats and regional security
Active pacifism within the UN framework
American protection but greater defensive capacities
A great civilian power, sincere but ambiguous
4. China, a Global Power in the Making
The race for economic supremacy in Asia
Upsets in the hierarchy of the great powers
The criterion of technological excellence
Japan's lead in technology
China's quest for technological excellence:
a long way to go and an uncertain outcome
The ambitions of a major regional and global player
An enterprising and "benign" regional player
Stable borders and territorial integrity
China's active role in regional security
A new and predominantly economic regionalism
The ambition of global power
Tensions between multilateralism and bilateral economic diplomacy
A rapidly modernising army
Conclusion: The Stand-off Between China and Japan

Editorial Reviews

"In this provocative and important book, Claude Meyer argues against the conventional wisdom that Japan's future is past and that China will necessarily dominate the region. Drawing on his long years of experience with China and Japan as a businessman and scholar, Meyer explains why the next decades in East Asia are going to be dominated by competition between China and Japan for political and economic power. In contrast to so many observers who have written Japan off as a declining power, Meyer puts his focus on Japan's strengths as well as its weaknesses and the likelihood that it will play a central role in shaping the Asia of the future. This book should be required reading for anyone interested in the future of the world economy's most important region."—Professor Gerald Curtis, Columbia University

"A really good book. It is sensible, direct and very readable. Meyer addresses the rise of Japan and now China to become the world's third and second largest economies and major rivals for leadership in East Asia. Theirs is an economically friendly and mutually beneficial relationship which masks inevitable political tensions, exacerbated by the history of their relationship. The author nicely speculates on how they will probably share regional leadership for the next twenty years. Thereafter it will be either a regional cooperative arrangement led by China, Japan and India, or China will be the East Asia hegemony."—Hugh Patrick, Director, Center on Japanese Economy and Business, and Professor Emeritus, Columbia University

"A fascinating mixture of authoritative economic and political analysis on an extremely important topic that has not received the attention it deserves. As the author so clearly puts it, everything divides the two countries, be it interpretations of the past, perceptions of the present, or visions of the future. In any, almost inevitable, future confrontation China would seem to have the upper hand, yet Japan cannot be easily dismissed. The country retains considerable strengths, notably financial and technological, but also cultural. What it seemingly lacks nowadays is confidence in itself, a confidence that China, on the other hand, has in abundance."—Andrea Boltho, Emeritus Fellow, Magdalen College, Oxford University

From the Publisher

An enjoyable and thought-provoking read.

H-Diplo - Andrew Oros

Busy readers who want to quickly get up to speed on East Asia will learn much from this slim volume, one brimming with a veteran observer's insights and knowledge.

Japan Times

A fascinating mixture of authoritative economic and political analysis on an extremely important topic that has not received the attention it deserves. As the author so clearly puts it, everything divides the two countries, be it interpretations of the past, perceptions of the present, or visions of the future. In any, almost inevitable, future confrontation China would seem to have the upper hand, yet Japan cannot be easily dismissed. The country retains considerable strengths, notably financial and technological, but also cultural. What it seemingly lacks nowadays is confidence in itself, a confidence that China, on the other hand, has in abundance.

Andrea Boltho

This is a really good book. It is sensible, direct and very readable. The author addresses the rise of Japan and now China to become the world's third and second largest economies and major rivals for leadership in East Asia. Theirs is an economically friendly and mutually beneficial relationship which masks inevitable political tensions, exacerbated by the history of their relationship. The author nicely speculates on how they will probably share regional leadership for the next twenty years. Thereafter it will be either a regional cooperative arrangement led by China, Japan and India, or China will be the East Asia hegemony.

Hugh Patrick

'In his provocative and important book Claude Meyer argues against the conventional wisdom that Japan's future is past and that China will necessarily dominate the region. Drawing on his long years of experience with China and Japan as a businessman and scholar, Meyer explains why the next decades in East Asia are going to be dominated by competition between China and Japan for political and economic power. In contrast to so many observers who have written Japan off as a declining power, Meyer puts his focus on Japan's strengths as well as its weaknesses and the likelihood that it will play a central role in shaping the Asia of the future. It is welcome news indeed that this book, already published in French, Chinese and Japanese, is now available in English. It should be required reading for anyone interested in the future of the world economy's most important region.

Professor Gerald Curtis

'In his provocative and important book Claude Meyer argues against the conventional wisdom that Japan's future is past and that China will necessarily dominate the region. Drawing on his long years of experience with China and Japan as a businessman and scholar, Meyer explains why the next decades in East Asia are going to be dominated by competition between China and Japan for political and economic power. In contrast to so many observers who have written Japan off as a declining power, Meyer puts his focus on Japan's strengths as well as its weaknesses and the likelihood that it will play a central role in shaping the Asia of the future. It is welcome news indeed that this book, already published in French, Chinese and Japanese, is now available in English. It should be required reading for anyone interested in the future of the world economy's most important region.

Gerald Curtis

An enjoyable and thought-provoking read.

— Andrew Oros

H-Diplo