Charting China's Future: Political, Social, and International Dimensions

by Jae Ho Chung (Editor)

Overview

China has become an undisputed global phenomenon, yet twenty-five years ago, its remarkable accomplishments were largely unforeseen. In an ambitious effort to predict China's coming decades, this book explores not only the economic development that has been a key indicator of its success but the often veiled political, social, and international determinants that will be crucial. Leading scholars draw on their years of experience and on-the-ground understanding of current trends to make informed estimates of China's path, positing that its future may well hold neither threat nor collapse. All of the contributors provide a set of scenarios and order them in terms of likelihood, including the seven factors they have identified as central to charting China's future: the Communist Party, local electoral reforms and rule of law, the federalist possibility, social unrest, foreign policy orientations, Sino-American relations, and the Taiwan conundrum. This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand China as it rises in power on the world stage.

Contributions by: Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Jae Ho Chung, Bruce J. Dickson, Peter Hays Gries, Tao-chiu Lam, Yawei Liu, Gilbert Rozman, and Shiping Tang

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780742573017
Publisher:	Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
Publication date:	08/24/2006
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	232
File size:	2 MB

About the Author

Jae Ho Chung is professor and chair of international relations at Seoul National University and author of Central Control and Local Discretion in China and Between Ally and Partner: Korea-China Relations and the United States.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Forecasting China's Future: Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Determinants
Chapter 2: The Future of the Chinese Communist Party: Strategies of Survival and Prospects for Change
Chapter 3: The Rule of Law and Electoral Processes: Present and Future Forecasts
Chapter 4: The Federalist Possibility? Breaking the Chinese Exceptionalism
Chapter 5: Assessing the Odds against the Mandate of Heaven: Do the Numbers (on Instability) Really Matter?
Chapter 6: Projecting China's Foreign Policy: Determining Factors and Scenarios
Chapter 7: The Future of United States-China Relations: System, State, and Individual-Level Drivers
Chapter 8: The Taiwan Conundrum
Chapter 9: What Chinese Characteristics? Looking to the Past for Clues about the Future

Editorial Reviews

Charting China's Future takes on one of the most important questions of the coming decades: what is in store for China's development and what forces will shape this story? This edited volume brings together essays by highly knowledgeable individuals, each addressing a key aspect of this issue. It has the virtue of having every contributor lay out an array of potential developments, provide an assessment as to the relative likelihood of each, and explain the forces that inform that assessment. The result is a volume that provides a rich menu of important concerns and a very good basis for understanding the complex forces driving the future development of the People's Republic of China.

Kenneth G. Lieberthal

Everyone wants to know where China is headed; speculation is rampant, but serious analysis is often lacking. This volume, superbly compiled by Jae Ho Chung, provides an informed understanding of the contextual factors, defining determinants, and operative variables that are shaping China's future. The analysis leaves the reader with a keen sense of the fragilities that lie beneath China's impressive growth and international profile. Rather than risking a single prediction, the volume posits a range of alternative pathways for China's future. It is required and informative reading for all China analysts worldwide.

David Shambaugh

Given the importance of China in a rapidly globalizing world, books such as this study of China's future will have a ready audience. Recommended.

Choice Reviews

China today has become a major player in global affairs. Globalization has made China an integral part of the world community, and what happens inside China will generate enormous external impact. Because the whole world has a stake in China, the country must be taken seriously. In this very readable volume, eight experienced China experts provide a highly intelligent and thought-provoking exploration. They present us with imaginative yet empirically rooted scenarios of a powerful and rising China.

Yongnian Zheng

A useful and concise overview of major challenges facing China as well as an intelligent analysis of the complex forces affecting its developmental trajectory.

The China Journal

Given the importance of China in a rapidly globalizing world, books such as this study of China's future will have a ready audience. Recommended.

Choice

China today has become a major player in global affairs. Globalization has made China an integral part of the world community, and what happens inside China will generate enormous external impact. Because the whole world has a stake in China, the country must be taken seriously. In this very readable volume, eight experienced China experts provide a highly intelligent and thought-provoking exploration. They present us with imaginative yet empirically rooted scenarios of a powerful and rising China.--Yongnian Zheng, University of Nottingham

Charting China's Future takes on one of the most important questions of the coming decades: what is in store for China's development and what forces will shape this story? This edited volume brings together essays by highly knowledgeable individuals, each addressing a key aspect of this issue. It has the virtue of having every contributor lay out an array of potential developments, provide an assessment as to the relative likelihood of each, and explain the forces that inform that assessment. The result is a volume that provides a rich menu of important concerns and a very good basis for understanding the complex forces driving the future development of the People's Republic of China.--Kenneth G. Lieberthal, University of Michigan

Everyone wants to know where China is headed; speculation is rampant, but serious analysis is often lacking. This volume, superbly compiled by Jae Ho Chung, provides an informed understanding of the contextual factors, defining determinants, and operative variables that are shaping China's future. The analysis leaves the reader with a keen sense of the fragilities that lie beneath China's impressive growth and international profile. Rather than risking a single prediction, the volume posits a range of alternative pathways for China's future. It is required and informative reading for all China analysts worldwide.--David Shambaugh, The George Washington University and The Brookings Institution

From the Publisher

Given the importance of China in a rapidly globalizing world, books such as this study of China's future will have a ready audience. Recommended.

CHOICE

A useful and concise overview of major challenges facing China as well as an intelligent analysis of the complex forces affecting its developmental trajectory.

China Journal

A useful and concise overview of major challenges facing China as well as an intelligent analysis of the complex forces affecting its developmental trajectory.

Spring 2008 China Journal

Charting China's Future takes on one of the most important questions of the coming decades: what is in store for China's development and what forces will shape this story? This edited volume brings together essays by highly knowledgeable individuals, each addressing a key aspect of this issue. It has the virtue of having every contributor lay out an array of potential developments, provide an assessment as to the relative likelihood of each, and explain the forces that inform that assessment. The result is a volume that provides a rich menu of important concerns and a very good basis for understanding the complex forces driving the future development of the People's Republic of China.

Kenneth Lieberthal