Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises

by James A. Dewar

Overview

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had "forgotten". Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing them explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. It also presents steps for monitoring the vulnerable assumptions of a plan by taking actions to control them where possible and preparing for potential failure where control is not possible.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780521001267
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
Publication date:	10/17/2002
Series:	RAND Studies in Policy Analysis
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	268
Sales rank:	846,393
Product dimensions:	6.02(w) x 8.98(h) x 0.79(d)
Lexile:	1290L (what's this?)

Table of Contents

1. The essence of assumption-based planning; 2. A taxonomy of assumptions; 3. Step 1: identifying assumptions; 4. Step 2: identifying load-bearing, vulnerable assumptions; 5. Step 3: identifying signposts; 6. Step 4: developing shaping actions; 7. Step 5: developing hedging actions; 8. The art of conducting ABP; 9. Beyond ABP as a post-planning tool.

Editorial Reviews

"...a careful but engaging explanation of how this type of planning works...Planners who use ABP can take comfort in its realism. The author and his associates have battle tested it in real-life planning for the U.S. Army and private clients over many years...The detailed knowledge gained in ABP should permit the development of ever more relevant scenarios for scenario planning and thus more robust plans." Futurist

"Essential for business managers and strategic planners interested in improving existing operation plans." The Futurist

From the Publisher