Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in An Uncertain World

by Peter Schwartz

Overview

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but-better-that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartz's book." -Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life-bottom-line numbers, for instance-but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories-scenarios-and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780471977858
Publisher:	Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date:	09/28/1997
Edition description:	Revised ed.
Pages:	288
Product dimensions:	5.94(w) x 8.98(h) x (d)

About the Author

PETER SCHWARTZ is one of the world's leading futurists. He is president of Global Business Network, an international think tank and consulting firm in Emeryville, California, that includes many of the world's leading-edge thinkers about the future, as well as innovative scientists, artists, and business executives. His previous publications include Seven Tomorrows, a book of global scenarios jointly authored with Paul Hawken and Jay Ogilvy.

Table of Contents

Introduction to the Paperback Edition:
The Strategic Conversation - Broadening The Long View
The Pathfinders Tale
The Smith & Hawken Story: The Process of Scenario-Building
Uncovering the Decision
Information-Hunting and Gathering
Creating Scenario Building Blocks
Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenager
Composing a Plot
The World in 2005: Three Scenarios
Rehearsing The Future
Epilogue: To My Newborn Son
Afterword: The Value of a Strategic Conversation
Appendix: Steps to Developing Scenarios