A Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World

by George P. Shultz, James Timbie

Overview

The world is at an inflection point. Advancing technologies are creating new opportunities and challenges. Great demographic changes are occurring rapidly, with significant consequences. Governance everywhere is in disarray. A new world is emerging.

These are some of the key insights to emerge from a series of interdisciplinary roundtables and global expert contributions hosted by the Hoover Institution. In these pages, George P. Shultz and James Timbie examine a range of issues shaping our present and future, region by region.

Concrete proposals address migration, reversing the decline of K–12 education, updating the social safety net, maintaining economic productivity, protecting our democratic processes, improving national security, and more. Meeting these transformational challenges will require international cooperation, constructive engagement, and strong governance. The United States is well positioned to ride this wave of change—and lead other nations in doing the same.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780817924348
Publisher:	Hoover Institution Press
Publication date:	11/01/2020
Pages:	352
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 1.10(d)

About the Author

George P. Shultz, the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution, has had an eminent career in government, academia, and business. He has held four federal cabinet posts, taught at three of this country’s great universities, and was president of a major engineering firm. He is the co-author of Choose Economic Freedom (Hoover Institution Press, 2020). James Timbie is an Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution. A physicist and arms control negotiator, he was previously a senior advisor at the U.S. State Department between 1983 and 2016. He is the co-editor of Beyond Disruption (Hoover Institution Press, 2018).

Table of Contents

List of Figures ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xiii

Part I Introduction to the Hinge of History 1

Part II A Walk around the Emerging New World 13

1 Russia in an Emerging World 35

Excerpt: From "Russia and the Solecism of Power" David Holloway 44

2 China in an Emerging World 45

Excerpt: From "China's Demographic Prospects to 2040: Opportunities, Constraints, Potential Policy Responses" Nicholas Eberstadt 61

Excerpt: From "China's Rise in Artificial Intelligence: Ingredients and Economic Implications" Kai-Fu Lee Matt Sheehan 62

3 Latin America in an Emerging World 63

Sidebar: Governance Lessons from the Emerging New World: India 72

Excerpt: From "Latin America: Opportunities and Challenges for the Governance of a Fragile Continent" Ernesto Silva 80

Excerpt: From "Digital Transformation in Central America: Marginalization or Empowerment?" Richard Aitkenhead Benjamin Sywulka 81

4 The Middle East in an Emerging World 83

Excerpt: From "The Islamic Republic of Iran in an Age of Global Transitions: Challenges for a Theocratic Iran" Abbas Milani Roya Pakzad 100

5 Europe in an Emerging World 101

Sidebar: Governance Lessons from the Emerging New World: Japan 109

Excerpt: From "Europe in the Global Race for Technological Leadership" Jens Suedekum 113

6 Africa in an Emerging World 115

Sidebar: Governance Lessons from the Emerging New World: Bangladesh 126

Excerpt: From "Unlocking the Potential of Mobile Tech in Africa: Tracking the Trends and Guiding Effective Strategy on Maximizing the Benefit of Mobile Tech" André Pienaar Zach Beecher 135

Part III An Emerging America 137

7 Emerging Technology and America's Economy 141

Excerpt: From "How Will Machine Learning Transform the Labor Market?" Erik Brynjolfsson Daniel Rock Prasanna Tambe 174

8 Emerging Technology and America's National Security 175

Excerpt: From "Information: The New Pacific Coin of the Realm" Admiral Gary Roughead Emelia Spencer Probasco Ralph Seramel 191

Part IV Shared Challenges to Governance 193

9 The Information Challenge to Democratic Elections 201

Excerpt: From "What Is to Be Done' Safeguarding Democratic Governance in the Age of Network Platforms" Niall Ferguson 210

10 Governing over Diversity in a Time of Technological Change 213

Excerpt: From "Unlocking the Power of Technology for Better Governance" Jeb Bush 224

11 Demography and Migration 227

Excerpt: From "How Will Demographic Transformations Affect Democracy in the Coming Decades?" Jack A. Goldstone Larry Diamond 242

12 Health and the Changing Environment 243

Excerpt: From "Global Warming: Causes and Consequences" Lucy Shapiro Harley McAdams 257

Excerpt: From "Health Technology and Climate Change" Stephen R. Quake 258

13 Emerging Technology and Nuclear Nonproliferation 259

Excerpt: From "Nuclear Nonproliferation: Steps for the Twenty-First Century" Ernest J. Moniz 271

Part V What Have We Learned? 273

Governance in an Emerging New World: Project Timeline 299

Notes 307

About the Authors 313

Index 315