2015 ANNL COMPETIT ANAL ASEAN-10

by Khee Giap Tan, Le Phuong Anh Nguyen, Sasidaran Gopalan, Trieu Duong Luu Nguyen

Overview

In the tradition of the Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore (NUS), our research publications make a distinctive contribution to the understanding of economic development in Asia by evaluating and tracking competitiveness for the ten ASEAN member states annually since 2000 through combining leading-edge methodologies with an extensive dataset. In this third edition, the competitiveness ranking and simulation study for ASEAN-10 are improved and updated with 121 indicators across four environments. An in-depth assessment of the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) offers important implications for future integration initiatives in the broader Asia Pacific region. Novel empirical frameworks are also applied to provide an estimation of annual agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth in eight ASEAN economies and to shed light on the drivers of growth in the travel and tourism industry in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9789813147478
Publisher:	World Scientific Publishing Company, Incorporated
Publication date:	11/22/2016
Series:	ASIA COMPETITIVENESS INST-WORLD SCIENTIFIC SERIES
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	276
File size:	19 MB
Note:	This product may take a few minutes to download.

Table of Contents

About ACI iii

Foreword xiii

Preface xv

Acknowledgements xvii

About the Authors xix

List of Abbreviations xxi

List of Figures and Tables xxv

Chapter 1 The ASEAN Economic Community by 2016? 1

1.1 Introductory Notes 1

1.2 Theoretical Literature on Economic Integration 4

1.3 The Evolution of Economic Integration in ASEAN 5

1.3.1 ASEAN Economic Integration 1970s-2016s 5

1.3.2 The ASEAN Economic Community 8

1.4 The ASEAN Economic Community by 2016? 12

1.4.1 Achievements and Progress 12

Tariff Reduction and Elimination 12

Trade Facilitation 14

1.4.2 Obstacles and Challenges 17

Low Utilisation of Preferential Tariffs 17

Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade 19

ASEAN Single Window and ASEAN Trade Repository 20

Trade in Services 22

Skilled Labour Mobility 25

The ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) 26

1.4.3 Can the ASEAN Economic Community be Completed by 2016? 28

1.5 A Post-2015 Vision for ASEAN 30

1.5.1 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) 34

1.5.2 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) 35

1.5.3 Implications for Post-2015 ASEAN 39

Toward the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) 39

The Role of Indonesia 43

Domestic Reforms 46

1.6 Concluding Remarks 50

References 53

Discussant Notes 1.1 Mr Nguyen Cam Tu, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam 60

Discussant Notes 1.2 Dr Nguyen Dinh Cung, President, Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Vietnam 64

Chapter 2 2015 Update on Annual Competitiveness Analysis for ASEAN-10 67

2.1 Introduction 67

2.2 ACI Competitiveness Framework and Methodology 68

2.2.1 Literature Review on Competitiveness 68

2.2.2 ACI Competitiveness Framework 69

2.2.3 Data Sources 71

2.2.4 Computation of Standardised Scores 71

2.2.5 What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis 72

2.3 Competitiveness Analysis for ASEAN-10 Economies, 2000-2012 72

2.3.1 Overall Competitiveness 72

2.3.2 Macroeconomic Stability 74

2.3.3 Government and Institutional Setting 77

2.3.4 Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions 80

2.3.5 Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development 83

2.3.6 Competitiveness Over Time Analysis 86

2.3.7 Maximising Strengths and Minimising Weaknesses 93

Top 20% Strongest and Weakest Indicators 95

Median Competitiveness Web Analysis 104

Maximum Competitiveness Web Analysis 110

2.3.8 Upgrading Competitiveness through What-if Simulation Analysis 116

2.4 Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications 119

References 121

Discussant Notes 2.1 Mrs Somhatai Panichewa, Chief Executive Officer, Amata VN Public Company Limited, Thailand and Mr Chartchai Panichewa, President, ThaiSri Insurance Public Company Limited, Thailand 122

Chapter 3 How Productive is the Agricultural Sector in ASEAN? 125

3.1 Introduction 125

3.2 Agriculture in ASEAN: Trends, Opportunities and Challenges 128

3.2.1 Overview of the Agricultural Sectors in ASEAN-8 132

3.2.2 Opportunities and Challenges from a Regional Perspective 136

3.3 Literature Review 139

3.4 Methodology and Data 142

3.4.1 Growth Accounting Methodology 143

3.4.2 Malmquist Index Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Methodology 143

3.4.3 Data 145

3.5 Empirical Findings 146

3.6 Case Study: Agricultural Development in Malaysia 148

3.6.1 Key Features of Malaysia's Agricultural Sector 149

3.6.2 Malaysia's Agricultural Strategies and Policies 152

3.6.3 Challenges and Prospects 157

3.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications 159

References 162

Discussant Notes 3.1 Dr Roehlano Briones, Senior Research Fellow, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, Philippines 167

Discussant Notes 3.2 Dr Bustanul Arifin, Professor, University of Lampung and Board of Founder/Senior Economist, Institute for Development of Economics and Finance, Indonesia 170

Discussant Notes 3.3 Dr Waleerat Supbannachart, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Kasetsart University, Thailand 172

Chapter 4 Drivers of Growth in the Travel and Tourism Industry in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore: A Geweke Causality Analysis 175

4.1 Introduction 175

4.2 Background of the Travel and Tourism Industry in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore 178

4.2.1 Malaysia 178

4.2.2 Thailand 180

4.2.3 Singapore 182

4.3 Literature Review and Hypotheses 184

4.4 Methodology and Data 185

4.4.1 The Geweke Causality Analysis 185

4.4.2 Data 190

4.5 Empirical Findings 192

4.5.1 Geweke Causality Analysis for Malaysia 192

4.5.2 Geweke Causality Analysis for Thailand 195

4.5.3 Geweke Causality Analysis for Singapore 198

4.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 202

References 203

Chapter 5 Concluding Remarks and Future Research Agenda 207

5.1 Summary of Key Findings 207

5.2 Development Vision and Strategies for ASEAN-10 211

5.3 Future Research Agenda 221

5.3.1 Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment and Trade 221

5.3.2 Multi-country Global Vector Autoregressive Model on Economic Interdependences 222

5.3.3 Tracking Firm-Level Productivity, Efficiency and Competitiveness for the 16 Asian Economies 223

References 223

Appendix 1 Policy Brief: Make or Break for Vietnam in the TPP Era? 225

Appendix 2 Competitiveness Analysis of ASEAN-10 Economies, 2000-2012 - List of Indicators 233

Appendix 3 Competitiveness Analysis - The Algorithm 239