Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
672Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
672Hardcover(Large Print)
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Overview
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9780316322270 |
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Publisher: | Little, Brown and Company |
Publication date: | 05/18/2021 |
Edition description: | Large Print |
Pages: | 672 |
Product dimensions: | 6.60(w) x 9.55(h) x 2.20(d) |
About the Author
Table of Contents
Introduction: Two Kinds of Error 3
Part I Finding Noise 11
1 Crime and Noisy Punishment 13
2 A Noisy System 23
3 Singular Decisions 34
Part II Your Mind Is a Measuring Instrument 39
4 Matters of Judgment 43
5 Measuring Error 55
6 The Analysis of Noise 69
7 Occasion Noise 79
8 How Groups Amplify Noise 94
Part III Noise in Predictive Judgments 107
9 Judgments and Models 111
10 Noiseless Rules 123
11 Objective Ignorance 137
12 The Valley of the Normal 148
Part IV How Noise Happens 159
13 Heuristics, Biases, and Noise 161
14 The Matching Operation 176
15 Scales 187
16 Patterns 200
17 The Sources of Noise 210
Part V Improving Judgments 221
18 Better Judges for Better Judgments 225
19 Debiasing and Decision Hygiene 236
20 Sequencing Information in Forensic Science 245
21 Selection and Aggregation in Forecasting 259
22 Guidelines in Medicine 273
23 Denning the Scale in Performance Ratings 287
24 Structure in Hiring 300
25 The Mediating Assessments Protocol 312
Part VI Optimal Noise 325
26 The Costs of Noise Reduction 329
27 Dignity 339
28 Rules or Standards? 350
Review and Conclusion: Taking Noise Seriously 361
Epilogue: A Less Noisy World 377
Appendix A How to Conduct a Noise Audit 379
Appendix B A Checklist for a Decision Observer 386
Appendix C Correcting Predictions 389
Acknowledgments 395
Notes 397
Index 437